GFV-22-07 NGV RETROFIT vs OEM: Trends & European Overview Presentation to Informal Group on Gaseous Fuelled Vehicles 2 October 2012 presented by Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler Background notes for this presentation • The Worldwide Trends in the first part of this presentation includes materials from various presentations by Clean Fuels Consulting and is provided to the Informal Group on Gaseous Fuelled Vehicles as background to the second part of the presentation. • The information on European OEM/retrofit NGVs has been gathered and prepared by Clean Fuels Consulting (2011- 2012). Some of the information was developed for the European Business Congress project, Legal and Regulatory Environment for the Construction and Operation of CNG Refuelling Stations in European Countries. • The European compilation was prepared for DG Enterprise and was supplied by CFC on behalf of NGV Global. General Worldwide Trends Natural Gas Vehicle Retrofits & OEMs RETROFIT vs OEM Conversions OEMs € Warranty No Warranty R S E € A L F I Europe, Japan, S. Korea, E A North-America(QVM-based), T B Australia Y I Continental Asia L South-America I T Y Time Conversions QVM* / OEM** Gen I II III IV V VI Source: Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler, *Qualified Vehicle Modifier updated 10 2012 **Original Equipment Manufacturer Light Duty NGVs mostly are retrofit; MD/HD buses & trucks mostly are OEM REGION % Passenger % MD/HD Buses % MD/HD Trucks Cars WORLD 94% 3% 2% ASIA 92% 4.2% 2% EUROPE 91% 4.5% 4% S. AMERICA 99% .004% .002% N. AMERICA 86% 10% 2% Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding and/or non-road vehicles not included. Data Sources: GVR & Asian NGV Communications Source: OEM & Retrofit NGVs: Synergies & Trends, Working Party on Gas Roundtable on Use of Gas in Transport, Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler, Clean Fuels Consulting, 18 January 2011, RETROFIT SYSTEMS MANUFACTURERS • Italy = 14 LDV • Brazil = 3 LDV • Argentina = 71(retrofitters or manuf.?) • Netherlands = 2 LDV; 1 HDV • US = 4 LDV; 2 HDV • Canada = 2 LDV; 2 HDV • UK = 2 HDV • Australia = 4 LDV 1 HDV • Bangladesh = 350 (only 192 ‘authorized’) • Russia, Asia, = multiple hundreds (?) Source: Updated from OEM & Retrofit NGVs: Synergies & Trends, Working Party on Gas Roundtable on Use of Gas in Transport, Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler, Clean Fuels Consulting, 18 January 2011, recycled components recycled equipment of type on dependant Highly *NOTE: 2000 4000 U.S $ U.S 10000 12000 14000 IGU NGV Technical & Commercial Data Base Data & Commercial Technical NGV IGU 6000 8000 Worldwide (outside USA) Average* NGV NGV Average* (outside USA) Worldwide 0 Japan - cars - average Asia Japan - vans - average - Pacific Malaysia - min ; approvals and certification and approvals Malaysia - max Austria - min conversion costs costs conversion Austria - max Global Global Bulgaria - min Bulgaria - max - Croatia - min average – Croatia - max EUROPE ; Examples of results, Examples cylinder volume, type and number and type volume, cylinder Czech Republic - average etc. Netherlands - average US costs are more in line with Japan. withline in more are costs US Poland - min Poland - max Spain - average - Switzerland - min LDVs Switzerland - max Middle Iran - min East Iran - max America ; Argentina - average Latin new or or new Brazil - 3rd gen retro kit Brazil - 5th gen retro kit Russia - personal car 2x50 l Russia Russia - minivan 4x50 l 7 GLOBAL NGV MARKET CONCEPT OEM vs RETROFIT PATHWAYS Sustainability30000 Qualified Vehicle Modifier Vehicle Numbers (Per Year) (Per Market Entry 0 2000 Time 2005 2010 2015 2020 OEM: Europe, N. America & Japan OEM: Developing Markets Retrofit:Europe, N. America & Japan Retrofit: Developing Markets Source: OEM & Retrofit NGVs: Synergies & Trends, Working Party on Gas Roundtable on Use of Gas in Transport, Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler, Clean Fuels Consulting, 18 January 2011, OEM & RETROFIT PATHWAYS Best ‘guestimate’ where we are in 2012 Sustainability30000 Qualified Vehicle Modifier Vehicle Numbers (Per Year) (Per Market Entry 0 2000 Time 2005 2010 2015 2020 OEM: Europe, N. America & Japan OEM: Developing Markets Retrofit:Europe, N. America & Japan Retrofit: Developing Markets Source: OEM & Retrofit NGVs: Synergies & Trends, Working Party on Gas Roundtable on Use of Gas in Transport, Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler, Clean Fuels Consulting, 18 January 2011, European Natural Gas Vehicle Retrofits & OEMs Light Duty (LD) NGVs in Europe • Total LD NGVs: 1,284,707 ( 73% of all European NGVs at 1,757,990) • Assumed LD OEMs: 535,172, or ~42% • NGV data from 40 European countries (including Turkey) in West and East are considered in the totals. Vehicle data Gas Vehicle Report June 2012, from data at the end-of 2011 In Europe, OEM NGV sales dominate in Italy, Germany and Sweden • Italy: 775,590 LD-NGVs – ‘guestimate’ 50-50 split between OEM & retrofit, with OEMs now dominating sales. • Germany: 94,504 LD-NGVs ~100% OEM • Sweden: 37,700 LD-NGVs ~100% OEM including QVM (qualified vehicle modifier) Volvos • OEM sales play an important role in Switzerland, Austria (90% OEM vs 10% retrofit) and Spain where the total light duty NGV population (3 countries) is 15,816. • Netherlands OEM NGV population also is increasing but it is difficult to judge how many of their 3,530 LD NGVs are OEMs since they have had a strong conversion network (‘guestimate’ 25% OEM) Vehicle data Gas Vehicle Report June 2012, from data at the end-of 2011 ITALY OEMs gradually have outpaced sales of retrofit NGVs, but NGV registrations are very dependent on incentives. OEM Retrofit 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 Nummber of NGV of Nummber 20000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 No incentives +/- 1.500 € 2.000 € 3.500 No incentives € Sources: Flavio Mariani, Metauto - Eni Gas & Power, 2005, 2009, 2010 & NGV System Italia 14 GERMANY 70-75% of NGVs are used for fleet and commercial applications NGV Source: Ergas mobil, Timm Kehler,NGV Rome, June 2010 Volkswagen dominates the German NGV market with 49% 6 German OEM are currently in the market: • Volkswagen • Mercedes • Opel • Ford • Evobus • MAN 2 foreign OEM: • FIAT • IVECO Source: Ergas mobil, Timm Kehler,NGV Rome, June 2010 Associated ‘conversion industries’ based in Germany tend to be design & engineering firms but do not produce mainstream NGV retrofit systems • Brachetti and Partner • IAV (engineering & development) • IvS • Air LNG (investigating LNG applications for turbines for stationary and mobile applications CNG passenger car registration is projected to approach diesel cars by 2020 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 CNG Registrations 800000 Diesel Registrations 600000 400000 200000 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: BGW, Natural Gas Vehicles 2020 NGVs are anticipated to impact more on diesel car sales then on gasoline cars T housands 45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 . CNG 25.000 CNG Diesel . GasolineDiesel + other 20.000 15.000 . Gasoline 10.000 5.000 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: BGW, Natural Gas Vehicles 2020 NGVs should be 8% of total vehicles in Germany in 2016 (challenging target!) Source: ENI, Compressed natural gas as fuel for NGV – potential, synergy and development , September 2011 SWEDEN In Sweden the majority of the NGVs are passenger cars Source: Biogas Renewable Methane Gas, Leif Holmberg, Swedish Gas Association OEMs offer a variety of NGVs in Sweden VOLVO* MERCEDES VOLKSWAGEN • V70 Bi-fuel • Sprinter NGT • Passat FIAT • E Class • Touran • Punto Evo • B 170 NGT • Caddy • Doblò OPEL • Caddy Maxi • Fiorino • Zafira • Transporter IVECO • Combo • EcoDaily *Qualified vehicle modifier now owned by Westport LD Source: Fordonsgas Volkswagen dominated 2009 Swedish NGV car market • Volkswagen TSI Passat EcoFuel accounted for 68% of the total NG passenger cars sales in Sweden • Then follow Mercedes B 170 NGT (24 %), VW Touran, VW Caddy, Opel Zafira, Mercedes E 200 NGT, Opel Combo, and Fiat Punto Source: NGVA Europe, 2009 Volkswagen also is leading on medium duty NGV sales • Volkswagen Caddy accounts for some 45 % of the total sales • Followed by Opel Combo, VW Transporter, Fiat Fiorino, Iveco Daily, and Fiat Doblò Source: NGVA Europe, 2009 Swedish target is to reach 500,000 NGVs by 2020 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Target NGVs (x 1000) NGV RETROFIT vs OEM: Trends & European Overview Presentation to Informal Group on Gaseous Fuelled Vehicles 2 October 2012 presented by Dr. Jeffrey M. Seisler .