WELSH-MEDIUM SECONDARY EDUCATION SOUTH EAST WALES Strategic Outline Case – July 2014 South East Wales Consortium 21st Century Schools Programme CONTENTS Section Subject Page No 1.0 Executive Summary 4 1.1 Purpose of the Strategic Outline Case 4 1.2 Project Purpose 4 2.0 STRATEGIC CASE 5 2.1 Organisational Overview 5 2.1.1 South East Wales 5 2.1.2 Estyn Inspection of Education Services 6 2.1.3 South East Wales Education Achievement Service 8 2.2 Existing Business Strategies 9 2.2.1 Community Strategy 9 2.2.2 Single Integrated Plan 10 2.2.3 Corporate Improvement Plan 13 2.2.4 21st Century Schools Strategy 16 2.3 Investment Objectives 19 2.4 Existing Arrangements 19 2.4.1 Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw 21 2.4.2 Ysgol Gyfun Cwm Rhymni 22 2.5 Business Need 23 2.6 Potential Business Scope 27 2.7 What are the benefits, risks constraints & dependencies? 30 2.7.1 Main Benefits Criteria 30 2.8 Risks 34 2.9 Constraints 36 2.10 Dependencies 36 3.0 ECONOMIC CASE 37 3.1 The Long List 37 3.2 SWOT Analysis 39 3.3 Preferred Way Forward 45 3.4 The Short List 45 3.4.1 Option 4 46 3.4.2 Option 6 48 3.4.3 Option 7 50 3.5 Indicative Capital, Income & Revenue costs of Short List 51 3.5.1 Capital Costs 51 3.5.2 Income 52 3.5.3 Revenue Costs 52 3.5.4 Efficiency Savings 52 3.5.5 Backlog of Maintenance Costs 53 3.6 Economic Case Summary 53 3.7 Economic Case – Overall Conclusion 53 Page 2 of 82 Section Subject Page No 4.0 COMMERCIAL CASE 55 4.1 Procurement Strategy 55 4.2 Risk Analysis 55 4.3 Required Services 56 4.4 Potential for Risk Transfer 57 4.5 Proposed Charging Mechanisms 57 4.6 Proposed Contract Lengths 58 4.7 Proposed Key Contractual Clauses 58 4.8 Personnel Implications 58 4.9 Procurement Strategy & Implementation Timescales 58 5.0 FINANCIAL CASE 59 5.1 Financial Expenditure 59 5.2 Phasing of Capital Costs 59 6.0 MANAGEMENT CASE 60 6.1 Introduction 61 6.2 Project Management Arrangements 62 6.3 Roles & Responsibilities 63 6.4 Project Board Terms of Reference 64 6.5 Outline Project Reporting Structure 65 6.6 Outline Project Plan 66 6.7 Project Milestones 66 6.8 Use of Special Advisers 66 6.9 Gateway Review Arrangements 66 APPENDICES App 1 Newport City Council – 21CS SOP 2011 67 App 2 Newport City Council – WM2 Site Option Appraisal 79 App 3 SEWC WM2 SOC – Risk Register Separate cover App 4 SEWC WM2 SOC – Option Appraisal Separate cover Page 3 of 82 1.0 Executive Summary 1.1 Purpose of the Strategic Outline Case This Strategic Outline Case (SOC) seeks approval to invest an estimated £17m in the proposed programme for development of additional Welsh-medium Secondary provision in South East Wales, during Band A 2014 - 2019. The provision currently exists at Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw in Torfaen and Ysgol Gyfun Cwm Rhymni (operating on two sites) in Caerphilly. However pupil forecasts show that from September 2016 there will be insufficient places to accommodate Welsh-medium Secondary Learners across the region, with additional pressures emerging by September 2019. This SOC sets out an immediate and a medium term strategy to meet the need for Welsh- medium secondary education provision during the Band A time period. The four authorities of Blaenau Gwent, Monmouthshire, Newport and Torfaen have all included a commitment within their 21st Century Schools Strategic Outline Programme (SOP) to work together to secure additional and sufficient Welsh- medium secondary provision within the region in the medium to longer term. 1.2 Project Purpose Each authority within the region has the statutory obligation to develop Welsh in Education Strategic Plans (WESP) to support the Welsh Government’s commitment to creating a national Welsh-medium Education Strategy to develop effective provision from nursery through to further and higher education. South East Wales Directors are working together as a region to equip schools and education providers across age ranges and linguistic sectors with the capacity and sustainability to increase standards in Welsh and promote the use of the Welsh language within families, communities and workplaces. We will aim to stimulate and provide local, accessible, sustainable, community-focused provision to meet the growing demand for Welsh-medium education. Page 4 of 82 2.0 Strategic Case 2.1 Organisational Overview 2.1.1 South East Wales The South East Wales region covers the geographical area of Blaenau-Gwent, Caerphilly, Torfaen, Newport and Monmouthshire. The local authority boundaries were established in 1996 following local government re-organisation and within each local authority the provision of Education Services are delivered in varying forms. The population for the region at the last midyear estimate in 2012 stood at 578,000, of which 81,976 (based on 2013 benchmarking data) school age children attend the region’s schools. There are 246 schools within the region, 209 primary schools of which 20 are Welsh-medium and 37 secondary schools of which 2 are Welsh- medium. Blaenau-Gwent, Torfaen, Newport, Caerphilly and Monmouthshire’s Education services work in partnership to form the South East Wales Consortium (SEWC). The vision of the SEWC is to “Maximise the potential of all our learners through efficient and effective collaboration” The collaborative work between member councils includes: Performance Management for Headteachers School improvement Basic skills within 14-19 learning pathways Page 5 of 82 collaboration on tri-level reform in line with WG’s School Effectiveness Framework (SEF) Establishing and developing collaborative good practice networks to facilitate school learning communities at local and regional level to support effective pedagogy Inclusion and Additional Learning Needs (ALN) Welsh-medium provision 2.1.2 Estyn inspection of Education Services Estyn inspections for each Local Authority within the region vary and an overview is provided below: Newport Estyn reports for Newport schools have consistently demonstrated outstanding achievements by schools, with the 2008 Estyn report of the local authority stating that 'Overall, inspection findings in Newport schools are the best in Wales'. The 2008 Estyn inspection of the local authority also demonstrated outstanding features, with grade 1s awarded for strategic management and school improvement. Additional learning needs and promoting social inclusion were awarded grade 3s for performance and grade 2s for prospects for improvement. Access and school organisation were awarded grade 2 for performance and grade 3 for improvement, and support services were awarded grade 2s. (This inspection was undertaken following the previous framework an inspection under the new framework is scheduled for 2015) Newport schools have performed exceptionally well under the new Estyn Common Inspection Framework (introduced in September 2010). Since this date thirty four schools have been through the inspection process. 79% of schools have been judged as having ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ current performance. Similarly, 76% of schools have been judged as having prospects for improvement which are ‘good’ or ‘excellent’. Monmouthshire Following a recent Estyn inspection of Education Services in Monmouthshire, which placed the authority in Special Measures, the Education Minister issued a direction to the authority under Section 479A of The Education Act 1996. The direction undertaken by MCC has involved appointing an Improvement Board that monitors the Education function in Monmouthshire. This Board brings with it a wealth of experience and expertise to the Council which the 21st Century Schools team will take full advantage of in developing an exemplar programme, delivery and measurable outcomes. Page 6 of 82 Blaenau-Gwent Following a recent Estyn inspection of Education services in Blaenau Gwent, which placed the authority in special measures, the Education Minister issued a direction to the authority under section 497A of the Education Act 1996. The direction involved initially appointing an Education Commissioner, who, assumed responsibility for all of the Education functions within Blaenau Gwent that were previously the responsibility of the Executive. The Commissioner brings a wealth of experience and expertise to the Council. However, in 2013 Welsh Government amended the governance arrangement to mirror the arrangements in other local authorities through the establishment of a BG Education Recovery Board who hold the responsibility for education services. Torfaen Estyn undertook an initial inspection of Torfaen’s Education Services for children and young people in October 2011 and at that time the Council was identified as requiring significant improvement. Following a monitoring visit by Estyn in February 2013, the Council received notification that it was being placed in special measures. Although the Council had made progress against some of Estyn’s recommendations, progress was judged as insufficient and not yet quick enough or deep enough to satisfy the inspectors. Key to this decision was the Council’s failure to meet certain benchmarks for pupil attainment at key stage 4 in secondary schools. Since February 2013 the Council has been working with Estyn inspectors and the Welsh Government to increase the pace and depth of change. To help this, the Minister for Education and Skills established a Recovery Board for Torfaen in early 2014 Caerphilly The quality of Caerphilly Local Authority’s education services for children and young people was inspected in July, 2012. CCBC was judged to be ‘adequate’ for the 3 key questions. Estyn was of the opinion that the authority fell into the category of follow- up activity. Estyn undertook monitoring visits in October 2013 and January 2014. The outcome of the visits was extremely positive; Inspectors acknowledging that the authority had moved swiftly to address the recommendations from the 2012 Inspection.