45126 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized AID, CONFLICT, AND PEACEBUILDING IN SRI LANKA 2000 - 2005 By Jonathan Goodhand and Bart Klem with Dilrukshi Fonseka, S.I. Keethaponcalan, and Shonali Sardesai The governments of the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, in collaboration with The Asia Foundation and the World Bank funded this project. The contents of the studies should not be construed as reflecting the views of the five funding agencies. © Copyright 2005 Second Printing Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency The Asia Foundation Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland World Bank For reproductions of this publication please contact: 3 1/A Rajakeeya Mawatha Colombo 7, Sri Lanka Phone: +94 11 2698356 Fax: +94 11 2698358 www.asiafoundation.org All rights reserved Printed in Sri Lanka iii | Foreword Foreword This is a seminal study on the relationship between aid, conflict, and peacebuilding in Sri Lanka. It builds upon a previous strategic conflict assessment conducted in 2000 and commissioned by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development. Since then, development and diplomatic partners in Sri Lanka have tried to pursue a more coherent "joined up" approach to addressing the challenges of peacebuilding. This study, by example, represents a joint initiative by five partners - the governments of the Netherlands, Sweden, and the U.K., the World Bank, and The Asia Foundation - to analyze political events since 2000 and prospects for a political solution to Sri Lanka's "national question." Support for democratization, peacebuilding, and conflict resolution has become an important component of international development assistance programs in countries affected by civil conflict, none more than in Sri Lanka where nearly a quarter century of civil war has taken a high toll in terms of lives and economic opportunity particularly among the poorest and most disadvantaged. Sri Lanka's economy has managed to grow at a respectable rate despite years of civil war but this resilience merely underscores the much higher growth potential the country has, if peace is restored. This would significantly reduce poverty and propel Sri Lanka into the upper ranks of middle income countries within a generation. For this reason, international donors have increasingly realized that they can no longer work "around" conflict. Particularly since the beginning of the peace process, many donors have calibrated their assistance according to the broader objective of building peace. Two of the chief lessons from this experience have been first, that assistance programs must be based upon a sound and thorough understanding of this particular conflict and second, that more strategic and coordinated approaches from the donor (and wider international) community are needed. Strategic conflict analyses can be useful tools for both shared understanding and coordinated responses, especially here. Indeed one of the study's useful insights is that the "international community" is not monolithic, and different members have different assumptions and priorities and will play different, although hopefully supportive, roles in the Sri Lankan peace process. So instead of pursuing unanimity, which has been a cumbersome and elusive process in the case of Sri Lanka, the authors argue that donors should strive for "strategic complementarity" that emphasizes and builds on areas of convergence in the aims of key members of the international community. We are happy to have supported a study of this quality that promises to have a shelf life of years not months despite the fluidity of Sri Lankan politics. We hope that it will contribute to the international community's efforts to support a sustainable peace in Sri Lanka and serve as a source of inspiration for future joint initiatives in the area of conflict analysis in Sri Lanka and beyond. Douglas Bereuter Suma Chakrabarti Maria Norrfalk Ruud Treffers Shengman Zhang President, Permanent Secretary, Director General, Director General, Managing Director, The Asia Foundation Department for Swedish International Development The World Bank International Development Cooperation, Development Cooperation Agency Netherlands Ministry On behalf of the (Sida) of Foreign Affairs Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 1 | Contents Contents Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................................. | 2 About the Authors..................................................................................................................................................... | 3 Acronyms.................................................................................................................................................................... | 4 Executive Summary................................................................................................................................................... | 7 1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ | 17 2. Overview of Key Events since 2000............................................................................................................... | 19 2.1 The run up to the Ceasefire (January 2000 - February 2002)............................................................. | 19 2.2 The Ceasefire and Peace talks (February 2002 - April 2003)............................................................. | 20 2.3 The break down of talks and instability (April 2003 - December 2004)............................................ | 21 2.4 Tsunami and P-TOMS (December 2004 - September 2005)................................................................. | 22 3. Conflict Structures............................................................................................................................................ | 23 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................ | 23 3.2 Structural Dimensions of Conflict in Sri Lanka.................................................................................... | 23 3.3 Conclusions on Conflict Structures........................................................................................................ | 27 4. Conflict Dynamics............................................................................................................................................. | 29 4.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................ | 29 4.2 The Dynamics of Peace........................................................................................................................... | 30 4.3 Security Dynamics.................................................................................................................................... | 34 4.4 Political Dynamics: Fragmentation and the Peace Process............................................................. | 37 4.5 The Tsunami and Peace/ Conflict Dynamics........................................................................................ | 58 4.6 Conclusions and Future Scenarios........................................................................................................ | 61 5. International Engagement............................................................................................................................... | 65 5.1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................ | 65 5.2 Peacemaking.......................................................................................................................................... | 70 5.3 Development Assistance and Peacebuilding....................................................................................... | 77 5.4 The Tsunami and International Assistance.......................................................................................... | 87 5.5 Conclusions................................................................................................................................................ | 88 6. Conclusions and Implications......................................................................................................................... | 89 6.1 Overall Conclusions.................................................................................................................................. | 89 6.2 Implications for Peacemaking............................................................................................................... | 91 6.3 Implications for Aid Donors..................................................................................................................... | 93 References.................................................................................................................................................................. | 97 Appendixes................................................................................................................................................................