Global Audience Demand for Digital Original Series Kayla Hegedus, Industry Data Scientist Parrot Analytics www.parrotanalytics.com Cannes, France http://www.miptv.com http://mipcom.com Introduction Global content demand File Sharing PP Platforms Parrot Analytics is a technology and data science company that measures global demand for television Blogging Photo Sharing content. Sites Sites Consumers express their demand for content through various “demand expression platforms” including: } Video Streaming Platforms } Social Media Platforms Video } Photo Sharing Platforms Social Streaming } Blogging & Microblogging Platforms Media Sites } Fan & Critic Rating Platforms } Wikis & Informational Sites } Peer-to-Peer Protocols } File-Sharing Platforms Harnessing the power of cutting-edge artificial intelligence and hundreds of billions of data points Fan Critic Microblogging across the various demand expression platforms, Rating Sites Sites Parrot Analytics is able to combine the different methods consumers use to express their demand for content into the industry’s first and only cross- platform Global Demand Measurement. Wiis Informational Sites Introduction Global content demand measurement Industry-first: DemandRankTM Global Demand Measurement Parrot Analytics captures cross-platform audience To solve the industry’s measurement challenge with demand for content around the world. Audience the rapid proliferation of content distribution platforms demand reflects the desire, engagement and viewership, and unprecedented levels of consumer fragmentation, weighted by importance; so a stream/download is a Parrot Analytics has developed the world’s first and higher expression of demand than a passive impression only cross-platform, country-specific and real-time or a comment. content Demand Measurement system, where Demand ExpressionsTM are one of the components. Demand Expressions™ Total audience demand being expressed for a title, within a market. Characteristics of Demand Expressions™: } They measure actual, expressed demand. Parrot Analytics does not use panel data. } They encompass demand expressed by audiences from a multitude of sources, weighted by importance. } There is no ceiling to how many Demand Expressions™ a title can generate in a market. Introduction The rise of digital content No one can deny that we have entered the digital age S Platform Aailability of television content. From user-created viral videos on YouTube to award-winning, big-budget series, the internet is increasingly becoming the place to find the most popular content. This summer’s biggest hit, the 80s-inspired Stranger Things, did not air on traditional TV, yet was a cultural phenomenon, and stalwarts such as House of Cards continue to earn Emmy nominations into their fourth seasons. The digital revolution is not limited to the United States: with Netflix expanding to nearly every market at the beginning of the year, it has gained millions of international subscribers. Local SVOD platforms have also appeared around the world, aiming to get into this rapidly-growing market. The growth of digital original content is not slowing down, either. Both Netflix and Amazon Video have resolved to increase their spending on creating new content, and Netflix has stated that it wants half its catalogue to be their own original content within the next few years. This increased volume may be good for consumers, but competitors continue to struggle with a basic problem: Quantitatively, how well are these shows doing? Since SVOD platforms do not release their viewership numbers, metrics such as Parrot Analytics’ Demand Expressions™ must be used to be able to empirically determine how these digital original series measure up. To gain an understanding of the global state of the five major SVOD platforms, the share of demand for each platform is found both globally and regionally. Global Overview Global demand share Netflix and dramas dominate worldwide demand To quantitatively explore how well SVOD platforms Global emand Share Global Genre Share and content are doing around the world, the total percentage of demand from the digital originals on each major SVOD platform was found for 2016. With the largest catalogue and worldwide 0.6 Drama 48.8% penetration, Netflix dominates with over 80% of all demand for original series. Though Hulu is only 7.1% present in two markets, its series have the second- Comedy 16.5% largest share of demand with 7.3%; Amazon, in five 14% markets, is close with 7.1%. Crackle and YouTube Red may be available in more markets but they 7.3% Science Fiction 12.4% have fewer original series than the larger platforms and so account for only 2% of all global demand. Comedy-drama 10.7% Breaking down demand by genre instead of by platform reveals other global trends. Dramas, the genre with the most entries, have nearly half of 41% all demand. Comedies have a third of the demand Children of dramas and are the second-most popular type of original series. The hybrid between the two, 83.6 comedy-drama, contains well-known titles such Documentary 3.7% as Netflix’s Orange is the New Black and Amazon’s Transparent, but only account for about 10% of demand. However, the few science fiction titles, Animation 2.4% led by Stranger Things, have over 12% of demand, while other niche genres like documentaries and children’s content have less then 5% each. Other 15% Median Demand | January – October, 2016 Regional demand share Latin America has most demand for Netflix, but other platforms challenge Netflix in North America Next, the share of demand for the SVOD platforms Difference from Global Share in each region was found. Because the results were similar to the global shares, with Netflix 50% Aboe loba erage dominating about 80% of the demand, the regional differences in platform share were plotted instead. 40% For example, Amazon Video has 2.2% greater share of demand in Europe than it does globally, at the 30% expense of about 0.5% lower share for the other platforms. 20% With this analysis, the platforms that have unusually high or low demand can be determined per region. 10% In Africa, only Netflix and YouTube Red are present; however, those platforms and Amazon Video have Globa Africa Asia Austraaia urope Latin North below-average demand while Hulu and Crackle have Averae 0% America America more than the global share. The platform shares in Asia are most similar to the global distribution, likely because the populous countries in the region –1.0% account for more of the world’s demand than the other continents. Though Netflix, Crackle, and –2.0% YouTube Red are available in Australia (the largest market in Australasia), the other two platforms have –.0% above-average demand. The only region where Netflix over-indexes is Latin America, where it has –4.0% a relatively large 4.2% more demand than the global share. In contrast, Netflix has 4.6% less demand Beo obal verage –50% than the global share in North America, where it competes with the other four platforms. NETLIX HUL AMAZON IEO YOTBE RED CRACKLE Median Demand | January – October, 2016 The top digital original series and top shows on each platform are found in one market from each region, and the median demand of all shows on the platform compared. SVOD Content by Market Africa: South Africa Netflix most in-demand in South Africa In South Africa, as in many markets, the most Top igital riginal Series Top Show on Platform popular digital original series are from Netflix. Breakout hit Stranger Things has DMAND XPRESSIONSM DMAND XPRESSIONSM more than twice the median demand of the Stranger Things 5,130,098 NETLIX Stranger Things 5,130,098 NETLIX second-most in-demand title, Marvel’s Luke Cage. Netflix’s flagship shows follow, though Marvel’s Luke Cage 2,044,918 NETLIX The Mindy Project 528,90 HUL House of Cards has about 30% less demand than Orange is the New Black. Jessica Jones has Orange Is The Man in 1,291,716 NETLIX 335,642 AMAZON IEO not aired new episodes this year, yet is the The New Black the High Castle fifth most-popular series, perhaps due to the high demand for its fellow Marvel show Luke House Of Cards 892,61 NETLIX StartUp 16,571 CRACKLE Cage. Marvel’s 70,853 Lazer Team 2,456 With all five of the top shows and none of Jessica Jones NETLIX YOTBE RED the other platforms available in South Africa, it is no surprise that Netflix has the highest median demand. Amazon Video, led by the Median emand for S Platforms alternate history title The Man in the High 80,000 Castle, has less than half of Netflix’s demand. M 60,000 Though Crackle has few titles, its shows come third overall with Martin Freeman’s StartUp 40,000 leading the pack. Hulu’s larger catalogue has less demand overall even though their top 20,000 show, The Mindy Project, originally aired on DMAND XPRESSIONS 0 broadcast television, has the second-highest 80,260 32,021 22,611 15,678 8,645 demand of the top shows on each platform. YouTube Red has only about 10% of Netflix’s demand in South Africa. Demand reionsTM: Total audience demand being expressed for a title, within a market. Median Demand | January – October, 2016 Asia: Malaysia High demand for Marvel series in Malaysia Netflix also dominates in Malaysia. Stranger Top igital riginal Series Top Show on Platform Things is the most in-demand digital series, followed by Marvel’s Luke Cage. All the other DMAND XPRESSIONSM DMAND XPRESSIONSM originals have less than half of the demand of Stranger Things 1,336,737 NETLIX Stranger Things 1,336,737 NETLIX these two series. House of Cards is the oldest title on the list and comes in third, while Marvel’s Luke Cage 963,389 NETLIX The Mindy Project 218,377 HUL Orange is the New Black, unusually, does not appear among the top series.