20 Years Without 20 Years the Berlin Wall: Enormous societal and political shifts twenty years ago opened prospects for a new, united Europe and put an end to the Cold War and the nuclear standoff. Despite Russia’s enormous role in this peaceful departure from totalitarianism, the country’s course in the subsequent two decades has not been so straightforward. The book focuses on the outcome of transformation in Russia and other post-communist nations, Without the Wall: Berlin comparing Russia’s experience with that of the Central and Eastern European states. The book’s authors, including leading Carnegie Moscow Center experts, pose the question: what was the reason behind Russia’s stalled reforms? They argue that A Breakthrough to Freedom A Breakthrough Freedom to a policy that leads to the dismantling of civil liberties in the country and uses strong- arm tactics externally is a dead-end. While the demolition of the Berlin Wall is no guarantee of success, democratic transformations are a necessary precondition for the country’s modernization and strong, modern international profile, as well as for citizens’ welfare. A Breakthrough to Freedom Edited by Natalia BuBNova Carnegie MosCow Center 20 Years Without the Berlin Wall: A Breakthrough to Freedom Edited by Natalia Bubnova Moscow 2011 Electronic version: http://www.carnegie.ru/publications. This publication has been produced by the Carnegie Moscow Center, a non- commercial, non-governmental research organization, with the support of the Oak Foundation. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace or the Carnegie Moscow Center. The publication is distributed free-of-charge. Scientific and technical support — Peter Topychkanov and Aanchal Anand. 20 Years Without the Berlin Wall: A Breakthrough to Freedom / Ed. by Natalia Bubnova; Carnegie Moscow Center. — Moscow, 2011. 260 p. Enormous societal and political shifts twenty years ago opened prospects for a new, united Europe and put an end to the Cold War and the nuclear standoff. Despite Russia’s enormous role in this peaceful departure from totalitarianism, the country’s course in the subsequent two decades has not been so straightforward. The book focuses on the outcome of transformation in Russia and other post-communist nations, comparing Russia’s experience with that of the Central and Eastern European states. The book’s authors, including leading Carnegie Moscow Center experts, pose the question: what was the reason behind Russia’s stalled reforms? They argue that a policy that leads to the dismantling of civil liberties in the country and uses strong-arm tactics externally is a dead-end. While the demolition of the Berlin Wall is no guarantee of success, democratic transformations are a necessary precondition for the country’s modernization and strong, modern international profile, as well as for citizens’ welfare. ISBN 978-5-8243-1537-0 © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011 table of Contents 7 about the authors 9 Foreword (Natalia Bubnova) 19 Sam Greene. Freedom 29 Alexei Arbatov. russia’s own imperial road 59 Lilia Shevtsova. the Fall of the Berlin wall: a time to reflect on why things are not as they should Be 75 Andrei Ryabov. no institutions 83 Maria Lipman. a society of Political indifference 91 Nikolay Petrov. russia’s regional elites in 2010: twenty Years on 135 Natalia Bubnova. what Happened to Democracy: society at the Crossroads 183 Alexey Malashenko. “religious expansion” and Foreign Policy 193 Peter Topychkanov. Minorities in a new world 5 205 Dmitri Trenin. a study of russian Foreign Policy from 1992 to 2010 255 Conclusion (Natalia Bubnova) 258 about the Carnegie endowment about the authors Alexei Arbatov chairs the Carnegie Moscow Center’s nonproliferation Program. He is also a corresponding member of the russian academy of sciences and head of the Center for international security of the russian academy of sciences’ institute of world economy and international rela- tions (iMeMo). He holds a Ph.D. in history. Natalia Bubnova is the Carnegie Moscow Center’s deputy director for communications. she holds a Ph.D. in history. Sam Greene is the Carnegie Moscow Center’s deputy director for operations. He holds a Ph.D. in political sociology. Maria Lipman is editor-in-chief of the Pro et Contra journal pub- lished by the Carnegie Moscow Center and also serves as an expert in the Center’s society and regions Program. she holds an M.a. in philology. Alexey Malashenko is co-chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s religion, society and security Program. He holds a Ph.D. in history. Nikolay Petrov chairs the Carnegie Moscow Center’s society and regions Program. He holds a Ph.D. in geography. Andrei Ryabov chairs the Carnegie Moscow Center’s east-east: Partnership Beyond Borders Program. He holds a Ph.D. in history. Lilia Shevtsova chairs the Carnegie Moscow Center’s russian Domes- tic Politics and Political institutions Program. she holds a Ph.D. in history. Peter Topychkanov is a Stanton fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center and is coordinator of the Center’s nonproliferation Program. He is also senior researcher at the Center for international security of the iMeMo. He holds a Ph.D. in history. 7 20 Y ears W it hOu T T h E Berlin Wall: A BreakThrouGh to Freedom Dmitri Trenin is the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and is chair of the Center’s Foreign Policy and security Program. He holds a Ph.D. in history. all of the authors are members of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s re- search Council. Foreword Natalia Bubnova the present collection was prepared as part of the celebration of the Car- negie Moscow Center’s fifteenth anniversary. its authors are the Center’s experts. when the Berlin wall was erected in the early 1960s, few could have imagined that its destruction would become the 20th century’s foremost symbol of the democratic process; however, today, it is especially difficult to imagine a better emblem of the struggle for freedom, justice, and hu- man rights. twenty years ago, “velvet” democratic revolutions erupted in eastern and Central european countries, and the associated anniversaries continue: the 20th anniversary of the six-party treaty on the unification of east and west germany is being marked in 2011, and various countries are commemorating the establishment of new political parties, media outlets, and research centers created two decades ago to engage subjects that once had been considered taboo. at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s, russia was also intricately involved in a process of revolution- ary reinvention. in august 1991, russia’s own internal Berlin wall was torn asunder via popular resistance to the state emergency Committee’s at- tempt to restore the authoritarian regime. this unique process of democratic transformation, represented os- tensibly by the dismantling of the Berlin wall, affected the entire world – marking the conclusion of the Cold war and the global confrontation be- tween two competing ideologies, a significant proliferation of democracy, a sharp decrease in the number of military dictatorships, and an expan- sion of the reach of personal freedom. to that end, the volume’s authors 9 20 Y ears W it hOu T T h E Berlin Wall: A BreakThrouGh to Freedom view in global context the tremendous political and social changes that occurred in the former communist countries. Furthermore, inasmuch as the soviet Union was at the center of a world that faded into the past at a time and in a fashion similar to the Berlin wall, it is natural that many of the authors’ questions directly address russia’s experience. the hope shared by many in the early 1990s that both the countries of eastern and Central europe and the former soviet republics – having accomplished seminal breakthroughs to freedom – would build new so- cieties based on the values of democracy and free enterprise, turned out to be more optimistic than what really happened. the authors of the col- lection point to the fact that the countries of eastern and Central europe were more successful in establishing democratic structures, since they were distinctly aware that their goal was to return to europe and they were supported by the european Union. Most of them had previous expe- rience with democratic development; they viewed the communist regime as something imposed on them from the outside and built their national identity in opposition to it. Lilia shevtsova also writes that “paradoxically, the nationalism of the ‘new europeans’ made it possible for them to limit their own sovereignty in favor of supranational european organizations.” Meanwhile, sam greene believes that in spite of a stronger insti- tutional foundation in the countries of eastern and Central europe due largely to their membership in the european Union, their societies have not yet fully demonstrated the ability to effectively use these tools of de- mocracy. over the past two decades, these countries “had functioning democratic institutions, held elections, changed parties and governments, developed an independent media and built a market economy. But there was no public politics as such... they failed to develop party organizations able to bring together and mobilize diverse public interests.” Hence the popular discontent and considerable emigration from the region. as does the previous author, andrei ryabov notes that “in Central and eastern europe, post-communist symptoms are kept hidden behind the european facades of new institutions” and become active when the new system, as 10 Natalia BubnovA. F oreword happened during the financial crisis, enters a period of instability. there are no politicians willing to propose a constructive program of action, and as in the 1990s, the most active are what seemed to be the already forgot- ten political players: the nationalists, the anti-europeans, and the radicals.