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The Rise of Homicides on the Baja California Peninsula in 2017: A Bloody Mess A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Political Science at The University of Waikato by ALEXANDER SWAIN 2019 Abstract The Baja California Peninsula (BCP) is situated in the northwest of Mexico and consists of two major Mexican states, Baja California and Baja California Sur. For decades the peninsula has remained relatively quiet in the overspill of violence generated by the early War on Drugs pursued by Vicente Fox in 2000 and again with a more rigorous approach by Felipe Calderon in 2006. Drug-related violence is affecting areas that have previously not been reached before, causing the Baja California region to become a battleground for drug trafficking organizations’ contesting drug routes. From 2014, homicide levels began to rise in the Baja California Peninsula, with a spike of homicides in 2017 causing the region to have one of the highest rates nationwide. The spike of 85.6% in homicides on the BCP and a difference of 325% - three times the national average for homicide rates in 2017, is the reasoning why this paper will seek to understand and answer the question ‘Why has the homicide rate in the Baja California Peninsula spiked in 2017?’ The rise of homicides on the BCP is analysed and discussed in relation to three main factors. Factor one discusses how Joaquin Guzman’s controlled the police, government officials, and cartel routes through key cities on the BCP, the relationship between Joaquin Guzman’s Sinaloa Cartel, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the splintering factions fighting for cartel routes. It also discusses the destabilizing of cartels, also called the top-down approach. This model is discussed in relation to the increase of homicides and the role it played with the emergence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. A case study is provided of homicides in relation to the turf wars and the impacts this had on the spike of homicide rates. Factor two focuses on Government initiatives such as the militarisation strategy and the deployment of soldiers contributing to a spike in homicide rates. Factor three analyses the increased attack on women and journalists and how these attacks are often over-looked but have contributed to the Spike of homicides on the Baja California Peninsula. ii Acknowledgements The completion of this thesis has only been achieved due to the support of those around me. I would like to acknowledge my supervisor, Professor Dan Zirker. Your patience and support throughout my journey at Waikato University has been greatly appreciated. From under-graduate papers, post-graduate and now master’s, you have helped shape new ideologies and provided a platform of Mexican politics which sparked the interest for this thesis. To my parents and family, thank you for your support and understanding. This has been a journey you have all taken with me and it has not gone unnoticed. A heartfelt thank you to Auckland, Waitakere and Waikato DHB’s for keeping me alive at the beginning of this year and for the services you provide. A very special and loving thank you is saved for my wife Shayna Swain. You have been my rock and support throughout this thesis. You have picked me up when down, financially cared for our family and never gave up on me. You did it so our small family can grow into the eternities and I’m forever grateful. You are Choice, my love. I want to thank my Heavenly Father for all I have been given and for listening to my constant prayers for support. iii Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................. iv List of Figures ....................................................................................................... vi List of Acronyms ................................................................................................. vii Map of Mexico .................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................... 9 Hypotheses ....................................................................................................... 10 Data Sources ..................................................................................................... 12 Literature Review ............................................................................................. 13 Methodology .................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2: A History of Violence in Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula .............................................................................................................. 20 History of Mexico ............................................................................................ 20 Political and Geographical History of the Baja California Peninsula .............. 24 Comparative Analysis of Homicides in the Baja California Peninsula ............ 25 Summary .......................................................................................................... 30 Chapter 3: The Violence of Organized Crime .................................................. 32 History of Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTO’s) on the Baja California Peninsula .......................................................................................................... 32 The Rise of Joaquin Guzman and the Sinaloa Cartel ....................................... 35 Top-down Model .............................................................................................. 39 Case Studies ................................................................................................. 39 The Emergence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel ..................................... 44 Turf Wars and Opportunistic Behavior (January – December 2017) .............. 46 Summary .......................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 4: The Impact of Government Initiatives .......................................... 55 Theory of Militarisation Strategy ..................................................................... 55 State of Emergency: The deployment of soldiers ............................................ 57 iv State Enforcement Authorities ......................................................................... 61 International ...................................................................................................... 68 Summary .......................................................................................................... 71 Chapter 5: Increase in Group Homicides ......................................................... 73 Violence against Freedom of Speech Workers ................................................ 73 Case Studies ................................................................................................. 74 Femicides .......................................................................................................... 77 Analysis deficiency ...................................................................................... 78 Deaths of Women and Girls ........................................................................ 81 Sexual Violence ........................................................................................... 82 Summary .......................................................................................................... 83 Chapter 6: Conclusion ........................................................................................ 85 List of References ................................................................................................ 90 v List of Figures Figure 1. Total Number of Homicides in Baja California Sur .................. 26 Figure 2. Total Number of Homicides in Baja California ........................ 27 Figure 3. Total Number of Homicides in the Baja California Peninsula .. 28 Figure 4. Comparison of Average Homicide Rates for the Baja California Peninsula and Mexico ............................................................................... 29 Figure 5. Analytical Comparison of Mexico’s Deadliest Regions by Homicide Rates (Squared) ........................................................................ 30 vi List of Acronyms AFO Arellano Felix Organisation AMLO Andreas Manual Lopez Obrador