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Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Containing Iran Strategies for Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Challenge Robert J. Reardon Supported by the Stanton Foundation C O R P O R A T I O N The research described in this report was supported by the Stanton Foundation. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-7631-1 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2012 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Iran’s development of the nuclear fuel cycle, and its continuing progress toward the ability to produce a nuclear weapons arsenal, is one of the most pressing foreign policy issues for the United States. An Iranian nuclear arsenal could further destabilize an already unsettled region and put a number of important U.S. interests at risk. The United States has a strong interest in preventing such an outcome. Yet it is an open question whether the United States and its allies are able to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons at an accept- able cost. After almost a decade of concerted effort involving economic, diplomatic, and military sources of leverage, there has been little prog- ress toward reversing or substantially slowing Iran’s nuclear progress. When the United States first began to seek UN Security Council action against Iran in 2003, the country had no stockpiles of enriched uranium, and lacked an industrial-scale enrichment capability. Today, despite all U.S. efforts, Iran has an extensive enrichment program and likely possesses the technical capacity to produce at least one nuclear weapon should it choose to do so. Sanctions, air strikes, or negotiations are unlikely to convince Iran to change course. The objective of this study is to assess current U.S. policy options on the Iranian nuclear question and to identify a way forward. It addresses two important questions. First, how can the United States prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons? Second, failing this, how can the United States best mitigate the negative international effects of a nuclear-armed Iran? The research presented here indi- cates that although both of these goals are challenging, they can be iii iv Containing Iran: Strategies for Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Challenge met through patient and forward-looking policymaking. Success will depend on the United States’ ability to account for a variety of compet- ing interests and policy constraints, including technical factors, Iranian domestic politics, regional alliances, and the international nonprolif- eration regime. No “silver bullet” solution is offered. If U.S. policy is to succeed, it must take the long view. Specifically, the United States can begin to lay the groundwork for an effective containment policy as it continues its efforts to forestall Iranian weaponization. A successful containment policy will promote long-term positive political change in Iran while avoiding counterproductive provocation. The research for this book was concluded as the momentous events of the Arab Spring continued to unfurl across the Middle East, and the region’s political future remained in flux. At the time of this writ- ing, the implications these changes will have for Iran and its nuclear program are highly uncertain. At the same time, Iran’s own political system is in flux. Rifts that were exacerbated in the aftermath of the 2009 election have continued to grow. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose political fortunes have drastically declined, has ultimately failed in his efforts to challenge the political supremacy of the Supreme Leader and the clerical establishment. This study has sought to take these dynam- ics into account in its analysis. However, a fuller understanding will have to wait for future studies. This research should be of interest to members of the U.S. secu- rity policy community, and to scholars interested in the politics of the Iranian nuclear program. The work should be helpful to military strat- egists, diplomats, and scholars. It can serve as a useful primer on the Iranian nuclear question, and as a reference that can be consulted for specific information or for finding source materials. Instructors may find this book useful in courses on U.S. foreign policy, conflict resolu- tion, and nuclear proliferation. Significant debates remain among the policy community over the most appropriate course of action with Iran, and there are legitimate disagreements on a number of the issues addressed in this monograph, including the costs and benefits of using military force, internal Ira- nian decisionmaking, the speed with which Iran could create a bomb, and the viability of a containment strategy. Preface v Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program The research reported here was prepared as part of the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows program at the RAND Corporation. Research is con- ducted during a one-year fellowship at RAND under the guidance and supervision of a RAND mentor. This fellowship is financed by the Stanton Foundation. The author of this report thanks the input of col- leagues and reviewers for improvements to the report, but any remain- ing errors or omissions are the sole responsibility of the author. Comments are welcome and may be addressed to Robert_ [email protected]. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Table ...............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 U.S. Interests and Policy Challenges .......................................... 2 Objective of the Study ........................................................... 5 Organization of the Text ........................................................ 6 CHAPTER TWO Iran’s Nuclear Program: Past, Present, and Future ........................ 9 History of Iran’s Nuclear Program ...........................................10 Nuclear Program Under the Shah ..........................................10 Revolution, Rejection, and Revival: 1979–2002 .........................11 Revelation and E-3 Negotiations: 2002–2006 ...........................14 The P5+1, Ahmadinejad, and UN Sanctions: 2006–2008 .............17 A New Administration: 2009–Present .....................................21 Program Elements and Status ................................................ 26 The Fuel Cycle ................................................................. 26 Major Program Elements and Facilities ...................................29 Technical Problems