Final Government Distribution Chapter 7 IPCC SRCCL 1 Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to 2 sustainable development 3 4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Margot Hurlbert (Canada), Jagdish Krishnaswamy (India) 5 Lead Authors: Edouard Davin (France/Switzerland), Francis X. Johnson (Sweden), Carlos Fernando 6 Mena (Ecuador), John Morton (United Kingdom), Soojeong Myeong (Republic of Korea), David Viner 7 (United Kingdom), Koko Warner (United States of America), Anita Wreford (New Zealand), Sumaya 8 Zakieldeen (Sudan), Zinta Zommers (Latvia) 9 Contributing Authors: Rob Bailis (United States of America), Brigitte Baptiste (Colombia), Kerry 10 Bowman (Canada), Edward Byers (Austria/Brazil), Katherine Calvin (United States of America), Rocio 11 Diaz-Chavez (Mexico), Jason Evans (Australia), Amber Fletcher (Canada), James Ford (United 12 Kingdom), Sean Patrick Grant (United States of America), Darshini Mahadevia (India), Yousef 13 Manialawy (Canada), Pam McElwee (United States of America), Minal Pathak (India), Julian Quan 14 (United Kingdom), Balaji Rajagopalan (United States of America), Alan Renwick (New Zealand), 15 Jorge E. Rodríguez-Morales (Peru), Charlotte Streck (Germany), Wim Thiery (Belgium), Alan Warner 16 (Barbados) 17 Review Editors: Regina Rodrigues (Brazil), B.L. Turner II (United States of America) 18 Chapter Scientist: Thobekile Zikhali (Zimbabwe) 19 Date of Draft: 28/04/2019 20 Subject to Copy-editing Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-1 Total pages: 233 Final Government Distribution Chapter 7 IPCC SRCCL 1 Table of Contents 2 Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development ............. 1 3 7.1. Executive summary ................................................................................................. 4 4 7.2. Introduction and Relation to Other Chapters ................................................................ 9 5 7.2.1. Findings of Previous IPCC Assessments and Reports ............................................ 9 6 7.2.2. Treatment of Key Terms in the Chapter ..............................................................10 7 7.2.3. Roadmap to the chapter....................................................................................11 8 7.3. Climate-related risks for land-based human systems and ecosystems .............................11 9 7.3.1. Assessing Risk ...............................................................................................12 10 7.3.2. Risks to land systems arising from climate change ..............................................12 11 7.3.3. Risks arising from responses to climate change....................................................19 12 7.3.4. Risks arising from Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability........................................22 13 7.4. Consequences of climate – land change for human well-being and sustainable development 14 27 15 7.4.1. What is at stake for food security? .....................................................................27 16 7.4.2. Risks to where and how people live: Livelihood systems and migration...................27 17 7.4.3. Risks to humans from disrupted ecosystems and species .......................................28 18 7.4.4. Risks to Communities and Infrastructure ............................................................29 19 Cross-chapter Box 10: Economic dimensions of climate change and land .................................30 20 7.5. Policy Instruments for Land and Climate ...................................................................33 21 7.5.1. Multi-level Policy Instruments ..........................................................................34 22 7.5.2. Policies for Food Security and Social Protection ..................................................58 23 7.5.3. Policies Responding to Climate Related Extremes................................................61 24 7.5.4. Policies Responding to GHG fluxes ...................................................................64 25 7.5.5. Policies Responding to Desertification and Degradation – Land Degradation Neutrality 26 (LDN) 69 27 7.5.6. Policies Responding to Land Degradation ...........................................................71 28 7.5.7. Economic and financial instruments for adaptation, mitigation, and land .................78 29 7.5.8. Enabling effective policy instruments – Policy Portfolio Coherence ........................81 30 7.5.9. Barriers to Implementing Policy Responses.........................................................83 31 Cross-chapter Box 11: Gender in inclusive approaches to climate change, land, and sustainable 32 development ....................................................................................................................87 33 7.6. Decision-making for Climate Change and Land ..........................................................90 34 7.6.1. Formal and Informal decision-making ................................................................90 35 7.6.2. Decision Making, Timing, Risk, and Uncertainty .................................................92 36 7.6.3. Best practices of decision making toward sustainable land management ............95 37 7.6.4. Adaptive management ...................................................................................96 Subject to Copy-editing Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-2 Total pages: 233 Final Government Distribution Chapter 7 IPCC SRCCL 1 7.6.5. Performance indicators..................................................................................98 2 7.6.6. Maximising Synergies and Minimising Trade-offs............................................99 3 7.7. Governance: Governing the land-climate interface .................................................... 114 4 7.7.1. Institutions Building Adaptive and Mitigative Capacity ...................................... 114 5 7.7.2. Integration - Levels, Modes, and Scale of Governance for Sustainable Development 6 115 7 Cross-Chapter Box 12: Traditional biomass use: land, climate and development implications .... 119 8 7.7.3. Adaptive Climate Governance Responding to Uncertainty................................... 122 9 7.7.4. Participation ................................................................................................. 127 10 Cross-Chapter Box 13: Indigenous and Local Knowledge in the IPCC Special Reports ............. 127 11 7.7.5. Land Tenure................................................................................................. 131 12 7.7.6. Institutional dimensions of adaptive governance ................................................ 137 13 7.7.7. Inclusive Governance for Sustainable Development ........................................... 138 14 7.8. Key uncertainties and knowledge gaps .................................................................... 139 15 Frequently Asked Questions ................................................................................................ 140 16 References ........................................................................................................................ 142 17 Supplementary Material ...................................................................................................... 252 18 Subject to Copy-editing Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 7-3 Total pages: 233 Final Government Distribution Chapter 7 IPCC SRCCL 1 7.1. Executive summary 2 Increases in global mean surface temperature are projected to result in continued permafrost 3 degradation and coastal degradation (high confidence), increased wildfire, decreased crop yields 4 in low latitudes, decreased food stability, decreased water availability, vegetation loss (medium 5 confidence), decreased access to food and increased soil erosion (low confidence).There is high 6 agreement and high evidence that increases in global mean temperature will result in continued 7 increase in global vegetation loss, coastal degradation, as well as decreased crop yields in low 8 latitudes, decreased food stability, decreased access to food and nutrition, and medium confidence 9 in continued permafrost degradation and water scarcity in drylands. Impacts are already observed 10 across all components (high confidence). Some processes may experience irreversible impacts at lower 11 levels of warming than others. There are high risks from permafrost degradation, and wildfire, coastal 12 degradation, stability of food systems at 1.5°C while high risks from soil erosion, vegetation loss and 13 changes in nutrition only occur at higher temperature thresholds due to increased possibility for 14 adaptation (medium confidence). {7.3.2.1, 7.3.2.2, 7.3.2.3; 7.3.2.4; 7.3.2.5; 7.3.2.6; 7.3.2.7; Figure 7.1} 15 16 These changes result in compound risks to food systems, human and ecosystem health, livelihoods, 17 the viability of infrastructure, and the value of land (high confidence). The experience and dynamics 18 of risk change over time as a result of both human and natural processes (high confidence). There is 19 high confidence that climate and land changes pose increased risks at certain periods of life (i.e. to the 20 very young and ageing populations) as well as sustained risk to those living in poverty. Responses 21 options may also increase risks. For example, domestic efforts to insulate populations from food price 22 spikes associated with climatic stressors in the mid-2000s inadequately shielded from food insecurity 23 and poverty, and worsened poverty globally. {7.3.1, 7.3.2, 7.4, Table 7.1} 24 25 There is