Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity Final Report CRC10162 Communicating Uncertainty in Biosecurity Adaption Authors David Cook, Shuang Liu, Jean-Philippe Aurambout, Oscar Villalta, Darren Kriticos, Jacky Edwards, Art Diggle, Abu-Baker Siddique, Michael Hurley and Kim Lowell 30 May 2012 246 © Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity All rights reserved Project Leader contact details: Name: Dr. David Cook Address: Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia, PO Box 1231, Bunbury WA 6231 Phone: +61 8 9780 6179 Fax: +61 8 9780 6136 Email: [email protected] CRCNPB contact details: Cooperative Research Centre for National Plant Biosecurity LPO Box 5012 Bruce ACT 5012 Phone: +61 (0)2 6201 2882 Fax: +61 (0)2 6201 5067 Email: [email protected] Web: www.crcplantbiosecurity.com.au CRC10162 Final Report Page 2 of 246 Table of contents 1. Executive Summary......................................................................................................... 6 2. Aims and objectives ........................................................................................................ 9 3. Key findings ................................................................................................................. 10 3.1. Methodological Review ............................................................................................ 10 3.1.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 11 3.1.2. Predictive model scale selection ............................................................................. 12 3.1.3. Comparison of modelling approaches to ensure relevant selection .............................. 14 3.1.4. Evaluate the predictions – power and variance ........................................................ 19 3.1.5. Provide a map of prediction confidence with levels of uncertainty ............................... 20 3.1.6. Reclassify predictions into robust, meaningful, and honest values for policy makers and the public ................................................................................................... 22 3.1.7. Summary ............................................................................................................ 24 3.2. Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation ........................................................................ 25 3.2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 25 3.2.2. Limitations of the conventional model of risk management in handling social complexity and profound uncertainty ............................................................................... 26 3.2.3. Analysing complex social values in managing invasion risks with Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation ................................................................................................. 28 3.2.4. Communicating uncertainty in biological invasion decision making with Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation ............................................................................... 30 3.2.5. Case studies of applying the DMCE in managing EPP risks ......................................... 32 3.2.6. Summary ............................................................................................................ 36 3.3. A spatial EPP incursion simulation model ................................................................... 38 3.3.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 38 3.3.2. The fire-blight model ............................................................................................ 38 3.3.3. Choice of a modelling environment ........................................................................ 40 3.3.4. Structure of the developed model .......................................................................... 41 3.3.5. Example Model application .................................................................................... 51 3.3.6. Discussion and avenues for future research ............................................................. 59 3.4. Identifying bio-physical processes for developing an incursion management model ........ 61 3.4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 61 3.4.2. Epidemiology and management ............................................................................. 62 3.4.3. Eradication of fire blight and European canker ......................................................... 68 3.4.4. Considerations for the development of a spatial model ............................................. 74 3.5. The non-Spatial Model used to Assess Threats to the Banana Industry ......................... 78 3.5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 78 3.5.2. An assessment of the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial banana plantations in Australia ...................................................................... 79 3.5.3. An assessment of the potential economic impact of black Sigatoka on the Australian banana industry ............................................................................................. 90 3.5.4. An assessment of the potential economic impact of Moko disease on the Australian banana industry ........................................................................................... 103 3.5.5. An assessment of the potential economic impact of Panama disease (tropical race 4) on the Australian banana industry ...................................................................... 109 3.5.6. An assessment of the benefits of yellow Sigatoka control in the Queensland Northern Banana Pest Quarantine Area .......................................................................... 119 3.5.7. Summary .......................................................................................................... 128 4. Implications for stakeholders ........................................................................................ 129 5. Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 131 6. Abbreviations/glossary ................................................................................................. 132 7. Plain English website summary ..................................................................................... 135 8. References ................................................................................................................. 138 Appendix 1: Threat Data Sheets ................................................................................................ 150 Appendix 2: NetLogo model equations. ....................................................................................... 232 CRC10162 Final Report Page 3 of 246 Tables Table 1. Modelling techniques/tools used to predict invasive species distributions. ............................. 17 Table 2. Multi-criteria decision analysis spatial tools: a selected list of GIS-based and standalone software-based applications for natural resource management issues (Lesslie et al. 2008). ................ 23 Table 3. Functionality comparison across modelling platforms. ....................................................... 40 Table 4. Patch specific variables. ................................................................................................ 42 Table 5. Global variables. .......................................................................................................... 43 Table 6. Fire blight model parameters used for the Goulburn Valley application. ............................... 54 Table 7. Key biotic and abiotic factors involved in the spread and incidence of five exotic pest threats for the Australian apple and pear industry and their potential productivity impact. .................................. 77 Table 8. Australian banana production statistics by region. ............................................................ 83 Table 9. Parameter values for the BBTV model. ............................................................................ 84 Table 10. Parameter values for the black Sigatoka model. ............................................................. 96 Table 11. Parameter values for the Moko disease model. ............................................................. 104 Table 12. Parameter values for the Panama disease (tropical race 4) model. .................................. 112 Table 13. Parameter values for the yellow Sigatoka model. .......................................................... 121 Table 14. Predicted cost of adopting a 5 per cent de-leafing threshold for yellow Sigatoka suppression in the NBPQA relative to a 15 per cent protocol aggregated across the region. .................................... 126 CRC10162 Final Report Page 4 of 246 Figures Figure 1. Using DMCE to tackle the dual-challenges of complex social values and profound uncertainty in managing biological invasions. .................................................................................................... 26 Figure 2. Flowchart of DMCE procedure (adapted from Proctor and Drechsler (Proctor and Drechsler 2003)). ...................................................................................................................................