OCS Report BOEM 2020-001 BEAUFORT SEA: HYPOTHETICAL VERY LARGE OIL SPILL AND GAS RELEASE U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Alaska OCS Region OCS Study BOEM 2020-001 BEAUFORT SEA: HYPOTHETICAL VERY LARGE OIL SPILL AND GAS RELEASE January 2020 Author: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Alaska OCS Region U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Alaska OCS Region REPORT AVAILABILITY To download a PDF file of this report, go to the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (www.boem.gov/newsroom/library/alaska-scientific-and-technical-publications, and click on 2020). CITATION BOEM, 2020. Beaufort Sea: Hypothetical Very Large Oil Spill and Gas Release. OCS Report BOEM 2020-001 Anchorage, AK: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Alaska OCS Region. 151 pp. Beaufort Sea: Hypothetical Very Large Oil Spill and Gas Release BOEM Contents List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................................. vii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 What is a VLOS? ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 What Could Precipitate a VLOS? ................................................................................................ 1 1.2.1 Historical OCS and Worldwide Loss of Well Control Incidents ........................................... 2 1.2.2 Historical OCS VLOS Frequencies and Risk Factors ......................................................... 4 1.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 6 1.3.1 Geographic Scope .............................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2 Scenario and Impact-Producing Factors............................................................................. 7 1.3.3 Oil Spill Trajectory Analysis ................................................................................................ 7 1.3.4 Physical, Biological, and Socioeconomic Impacts .............................................................. 8 1.4 How to Use This Analysis ............................................................................................................ 8 2 Very Large Oil Spill and Gas Release Scenario ................................................................................. 10 2.1 Cause of Spill ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Timing of the Initial Event .......................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Hypothetical VLOS Volume ....................................................................................................... 11 2.4 Duration of Flow ......................................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Duration of Oiling ....................................................................................................................... 12 2.6 Volume of Oil Reaching Shore .................................................................................................. 12 2.7 Length of Shoreline Contacted .................................................................................................. 12 2.8 Environmental Variables ............................................................................................................ 13 2.9 Response, Recovery, and Cleanup Countermeasures ............................................................. 13 2.9.1 Mechanical Countermeasures .......................................................................................... 14 2.9.2 Non-Mechanical Countermeasures .................................................................................. 14 2.9.3 Effect of Ice on Response Actions .................................................................................... 15 2.9.4 Levels of Response, Recovery, and Cleanup Activities ................................................... 16 2.10 Opportunities for Prevention and Intervention ........................................................................... 17 2.10.1 Well Intervention ............................................................................................................... 18 2.10.2 Well Ignition ....................................................................................................................... 18 2.10.3 Well Capping ..................................................................................................................... 18 2.10.4 Relief Well ......................................................................................................................... 19 3 Scenario Phases and Impact-Producing Factors ............................................................................... 20 3.1 Well Blowout Incident, Offshore Spill, and Onshore Contact (Phase 1) ................................... 20 3.2 Spill Response and Cleanup (Phase 2) ..................................................................................... 20 i BOEM Beaufort Sea: Hypothetical Very Large Oil Spill and Gas Release 3.2.1 Summer Response ........................................................................................................... 21 3.2.2 Winter Response ............................................................................................................... 21 3.2.3 Shoulder Season Response ............................................................................................. 21 3.2.4 All Seasons ....................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Post-Spill, Long-Term Recovery (Phase 3) ............................................................................... 22 4 General Oil and Gas Behavior and Effects ......................................................................................... 23 4.1 Behavior and Fate of a Crude Oil Spill and Gas Release ......................................................... 23 4.2 General Effects of Oil and Gas on Resources........................................................................... 32 4.2.1 Air Quality .......................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.2 Water Quality .................................................................................................................... 33 4.2.3 Vegetation and Wetlands .................................................................................................. 36 4.2.4 Invertebrates ..................................................................................................................... 37 4.2.5 Fish ................................................................................................................................... 39 4.2.6 Marine Mammals ............................................................................................................... 40 4.2.7 Terrestrial Mammals ......................................................................................................... 44 4.2.8 Birds .................................................................................................................................. 46 4.2.9 Economy ........................................................................................................................... 47 4.2.10 Sociocultural Systems ....................................................................................................... 49 4.2.11 Archaeological Resources ................................................................................................ 52 5 Effects of a VLOS ................................................................................................................................ 53 5.1 Air Quality .................................................................................................................................. 53 5.1.1 Phase 1 (Well Control Incident, Offshore Spill, and Onshore Contact) ............................ 53 5.1.2 Phase 2 (Spill Response and Cleanup) ............................................................................ 55 5.1.3 Phase 3 (Post-Spill, Long-Term Recovery) ...................................................................... 56 5.1.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 56 5.2 Water Quality ............................................................................................................................. 56 5.2.1 Phase 1 (Well Control Incident, Offshore Spill, and Onshore Contact) ............................ 56 5.2.2 Phase 2 (Spill Response and Cleanup) ............................................................................ 58 5.2.3 Phase 3 (Post-Spill, Long-Term Recovery) ...................................................................... 59 5.2.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 59 5.3 Vegetation