FY 2016 REAL ESTATE REPORT Britam Asset Managers (K) Limited FY 2016 REAL ESTATE REPORT Real Estate sector remains a central component of the country’s immediate and longer-term economic growth agenda. The sector’s outlook remains positive underpinned by strong economic growth and infrastructure development. Current investor sentiment in the sector is neutral as the election period approaches. Investors and developers are expected to adopt a wait strategy for new developments until the election period is over. Real Estate Sector Progress Fundraising Initiatives Transparency Shelter Afrique tackles non-performing real Use of twisted bars in construction outlawed estate projects in Kenya 38% of the projects financed by Pan-African housing Kenya Bureau of Standard (KEBS) banned the financier - Shelter Afrique’s, KES 35 Bn bond are manufacture, importation and use of twisted steel non-performing, resulting in the accrual of bad debt. bars in construction, starting April 2017, over safety Shelter Afrique’s largest debtors include Taj Mall, concerns; a measure expected to aid curb the Translakes Estate in Kisumu, Eden Beach Resort in collapse of buildings. Developers will now have to Shanzu, Mombasa, and Oak Park Properties’ Pine use ribbed bars which are preferred because their City in Athi River, near Nairobi. In a bid to recover skin friction gives them a superior bonding the loans, the financier seized 11 apartments at Eden characteristic over the twisted bar. Ribbed bars offer Beach, 17 houses and land belonging to Oak Park, better bonding with concrete when used as and classified these properties as “held for sale’’. reinforcement increasing the overall bearing capacity The Pan-African housing financier has been of the respective member where the bar has been struggling with liquidity issues, with 59% of its loan used. The ban follows the international trend where book classified as non-perfoming. It has also been twisted bars have been phased out for use in accused of sub-prime lending and manupilative structural reinforcement of concrete due to their accounting. Consequently, it was downgraded by poor bonding and structural properties. (Source: Kenya Moody’s, a credit rating agency, from Ba1 to Ba3. Bureau of Standards - KEBS) (Source: Nation Media) Real Estate Investment Trusts Fahari Income-REIT The Fahari I-REIT shed 47% of its value in 2016, to The REIT’s management team indicated that it would close the year at KES 11.65. In its first earnings be looking to raise additional capital via different release for a seven month period since inception, the mechanisms such as debt and vendor placement. REIT reported a total return (capital and income The REIT’s slumped performance reflected the return) of 6.5%. During the period, the REIT general market sentiment where the bourse closed successfully purchased the Greenspan mall, Bay the year at -8%. It also communicates limited Holdings – Commercial property in Industrial area investor knowledge given that REITs are still a new and Signature International – Industrial property in concept in Kenya. Nairobi. (Source: Stanlib, Bloomberg) 23 | Page Fahari I-REIT Perfomance 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 Indexed Performance Indexed 0.00 FAHR-1 NASI Real Estate Sub-Sector Updates 1. Land Land Prices Sustain Upward Trend Prices of land in Nairobi’s satellite towns grew by characterized by heavy congestion such as Ngong, 21.4% in the year to Q3 2016, registering the where prices reduced by 2.3% in Q3 2016. highest growth since 2014. The increase was driven In Nairobi’s suburbs, prices increased marginally by by Government announcement of planned 1.4%, mainly driven by road construction: such as infrastructure projects. These include the Western the Outer Ring Road expansion and completion of Bypass and the proposed commuter rail. Satellite the Southern Bypass. Donholm and Lang’ata were towns with the most increments in the year to Q3 the best performing surburbs with prices growing by 2016 were Juja, Ruiru and Limuru with price growth 9.3% and 7.7% respectively. (Source: Hass Consult Real of 43.1%, 42.9% and 34.9% respectively. Inverse Estate) growth was witnessed in satellite towns 2 | Page Our view – Investor demand is expected to exert upward pressure on land prices in satellite towns consequently leading to price growth. The number of developments is expected to increase, thereby leading to stagnation of rental rates in the satellite towns in the short to medium term. In Nairobi, marginal price increases are anticipated as investor speculation drops awaiting the election period. In the counties, prices are expected to increase buoyed by investor demand as devolution takes shape. 2. Retail Sector Global retailers maintain interest in the local jewelry firms that include Austria-based Swarovski retail market and India’s Anmol. The local retail scene, which is the second largest in Local retailers embark on expansion Africa (after South Africa) in terms of size, continues Current retailers in Kenya have announced expansion to register increased interest from international plans amounting to an excess of KES 1.2Bn. Naivas retailers. Supermarket, a local retail store, unveiled a KES South Africa’s clothing chain, Foschini Group plans to 470mn expansion plan to increase its branch network open thirteen outlets in the country to add to its first across the country. Its competitor, Nakumatt, branch at the Junction mall. The Foschini Group has opened a third store in Rwanda, marking its 64th 22 different retail brands under its label which span outlet in total in a move anticipated to boost regional across clothing for both sexes, jewellery, accessories, trade through stocking of commodities sourced from sporting and outdoor equipment as well as different East African countries. To keep up with the homeware. The group looks to open 3 stores at the peers, Ukwala supermarkets awaits capital injection Village Market and 10 at Two Rivers Mall. Other of KES 755mn for expansion, from Botswana’s international retailers set to open in 2017 include the Choppies, which acquired a 75% stake in the retailer Turkish LC Waikiki at Two Rivers, UK’s F&F and earlier in the year. (Source: Britam Research) Our view – Sector expansion is anticipated as new retail stock is delivered into the market. Expansion will be evidenced by debut of global retail brands in the local market and by expansion of the local retailers into the regional market. With regards to development, heightened activity is expected in the counties as well as in retail thirsty nodes in the city. More neighbourhood malls are expected as developers move to provide convenience. Rents in malls however, are expected to remain relatively stable as new retail stock is added to the market evening out the demand and supply dynamics. Malls expected to open in 2017, in Nairobi, are Two Rivers, Rosslyn Riviera and Diamond Plaza 2. Other malls in the pipeline include: the Laxcon Mall along Kangundo Road, Waterfront in Karen and General Motors Mall, Bellevue Mall and South Fields Mall, all located on Mombasa Road. 3. Hospitality Sector Tourist numbers improve in 2016 Kenya undertakes initiatives to boost Tourism Number of international tourists to Kenya increased The hotel industry in the country recorded notable by 16%, to 727, 802 in the ten months to October advancement in 2016. The Ministry of Tourism, 2016. The top source for the tourists was the United established the Hotel Refurbishment Fund to provide States of America, which registered 82,363 visitors credit to hotels which wish to renovate and expand followed by the United Kingdom with 80,821. US existing hotel facilities. Further, the country arrivals increased 16.4% while those from UK embarked on diversification plan for its tourism dropped 4.2%. India, Uganda and China followed portfolio away from wildlife parks and beach to coming in at third, fourth and fifth respectively as include cultural festivals and conferences. In sources for international tourists. Kenya continues to addition, to improve tourist’s confidence in the hotel be an attractive conference and leisure destination. sector in the country, the Kenya Tourism Regulatory Confidence in the country was cemented by Authority launched its hotel rankings exercise. successful hosting of the WTO Summit, UNCATD and (Source: Tourism Regulatory Authority, Ministry of Tourism) TICAD global conferences. (Source: Kenya Tourism Board) Kenya Tourist Arrivals - (Jan - Oct 2016) US UK India Uganda China Germany SA Italy France UAE 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Our view – The future of the hotel industry remains bright in the medium to long term underpinned by the anticipated surge in demand resulting from conference and leisure tourism. In the short run however, the return on hotel investments is expected to come under pressure due to oversupply of hotel space. 4 | Page Below are the Hotels expected to open in 2017. Hotels to open in 2017 Pullman Nairobi - Westlands Lazizi Premiere by Sarovar - JKIA Royal City by Swiss International - Kisumu City Lodge - Two Rivers Park-Inn by Radisson - Westlands Best Western Premier Collection, The Alba Wyndham Amboseli Golf Resort and Spa - Amboseli Hilton Garden Inn - JKIA In 2017, the sector will be driven by local tourism as well as conference tourism. Conferences scheduled to take place in Kenya in 2017 include: the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA) Desination Expo and the Islamic Conference among other global conferences. The country is also moving to open up new tourism frontiers by enacting agreements such as the Jamaican Open Skies agreements that will enable travellers from the Asian and African continents to fly directly to the southern parts of the world without an in-transit visa, and vice versa. 4. Industrial Sector Africa Logistics Partners to raise KES 7Bn commence its first construction in Q1 2017.