February 19, 2017 5 News & Analysis Syria Rebuilding Aleppo will take billions of dollars Hassan Ammar a focus on reconstruction. UN offi- cials are scrambling to form a vision and find ways to tackle financing. Aleppo “I remember people were tell- ing us, ‘Are you mad? You start ighting has ended in Alep- planning for rebuilding now?’ And po and talk is beginning my reaction was, ‘It is already too to turn to the question late,’” said Abdullah al-Dardari, of how to rebuild Syria’s deputy executive secretary for the largest city, where entire UN Economic and Social Commis- Fblocks have been smashed into rub- sion for West Asia. ble. The task will cost tens of bil- lions of dollars. Dardari estimated Hopes for rebuilding also collide war damages across with daunting realities. Syria at $350 billion. Without a comprehensive peace deal to end Syria’s civil war, West- ern countries are unlikely to give “One day soon, hopefully, when funds to the government of Presi- there is a peace agreement of some dent Bashar Assad, which remains sort and we need to deliver to the under US, European and Arab sanc- people of Syria on basic services tions that bar aid. Even Russia and and housing and schooling and all Iran, which are bankrolling Assad, this, you will see how much time show little enthusiasm for shoul- we really needed for planning.” dering rebuilding costs. The EU move may in part be Much depends on the shape of aimed at gaining a voice in Syria any eventual political settlement at a time when Moscow dominates ending the conflict. Rebuilding the political process. Russia’s war- without a deal may only entrench planes helped Assad’s forces recap- demographic changes caused by ture eastern Aleppo, the govern- the war, which have run along sec- ment’s greatest victory, and now tarian lines. Russia along with opposition-back- A woman walks along a damaged street in Aleppo, on February 2nd. (Reuters) The fear is that Assad’s govern- er Turkey is pushing to jump-start ment will rebuild opposition areas, negotiations. to nearly 1.5 million people before 60% of the old city has been severe- “The economic cycle in Aleppo such as eastern Aleppo, for its sup- Dardari estimated war damages the war, lies largely empty. While ly damaged and 30% destroyed. will not start unless the big and porters and do little to attract back across Syria at $350 billion. Alep- residents are allowed to return, Among the casualties are the heavi- small business owners begin work- millions of refugees, most from po’s share is about 15% — more than many will not without a reconcilia- ly damaged centuries-old Umayyad ing. If they don’t start, it will not re- parts of the country that joined the $52 billion — he said, though others tion deal, fearing retaliation or mili- mosque and historic bazaar. sume,” he said. rebellion. estimate it is nearly double that. tary conscription. “My heart burns every time I Officials in Russia — mired in a “The economic damage is be- Still, dozens of residents have come to the market and see the de- two-year-old recession — have not Officials in Russia — yond calculation at the moment,” filtered in to inspect their proper- struction. I cry every day but there commented on rebuilding. Moscow mired in a 2-year-old said Dardari. “There is no number ties, climbing over debris to reach is nothing I can do,” said shoe shop may instead encourage companies recession — have not on Earth that can be put on the loss hollowed-out, punctured buildings owner Abdul-Qadir Homsi. and other entities to lend support. commented on (of) the historical, archaeological with unexploded ordnance littered Mohammed Saddour, who sold With no overall peace deal, Tur- rebuilding. and cultural and also the business around. Entire apartment blocks carts, found his shop had been key, a major ally of the opposition, aspect of it.” are rubble. Vehicles cannot move used as a rebel operations room. He may take a role in reconstruction in Aleppo was divided between a through most streets because of de- spoke as workers poured sand into areas under its sphere. Still, the European Union, where government-held west and opposi- bris and craters. a tunnel underneath his shop. He Without a large-scale campaign, nearly 1 million Syrians are seeking tion-held east from 2012. The east The historic old quarters, which estimated he would need $1,200 to rebuilding will likely come through asylum, says planning must start bore the brunt of the destruction were largely held by the opposition, get the shop running plus $800 for financing smaller, local efforts. now. The European Union wants until the rebel enclave collapsed in are a wrecked shadow of their glo- a generator — an amount he cannot to host a conference on Syria with December. Eastern Aleppo, home rious past. UNESCO estimated that afford. (The Associated Press) The complex politics of the battle for Syria’s al-Bab Sami Moubayed Manbij and Raqqa.” objectives. One was to prevent the At first glance, the Turkish op- cause a Turkish-Russian confron- Manbij, west of the Euphrates, linkage of the Kurdish cantons of erations seem fully coordinated be- tation, although that is highly un- was also held by ISIS until its libera- Afrin and Kobane, which would tween Ankara and Moscow, which likely. Beirut tion by Kurdish militias in August have created a Syrian Kurdistan. has said and done nothing to deter A day-and-a-half before the so- 2016. Erdogan hopes to eject them The second objective was to clear the advances of the Turkish forces. called accident, Erdogan spoke with or decades, most Syrians as well and include the town in his 5,000 sq. km of land from ISIS con- If the Russians approve of the Trump for 45 minutes by telephone, had heard little to noth- ambitious Syrian safe zone. trol. The third was to create a safe Turkish project, however, why are seeking his support to march on ing about al-Bab, a largely When the Turkish military zone to resettle the 2.5 million Syr- Russian-backed Syrian government Raqqa before the city is overrun by Sunni Arab town 40km launched Operation Euphrates ian refugees who have been living troops also advancing on al-Bab US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, north-east of Aleppo. Not Shield on August 24th, 2016, it rum- in Turkey since 2011. In addition from the south? They are currently a Kurdish-led militia, or by the Syr- Fa single Syrian head of state has vis- bled into the border city of Jarabu- to al-Bab, the zone would include at Tadef, about 2km from the city ian Army. ited the city since the fall of the Ot- lus, driving out ISIS. Manbij, Azaz, 32km north-west of and vowing to push forward. Erdogan said he would gladly do toman empire after the first world The operation had three declared Aleppo, and Raqqa. Is it a battlefield manoeuvre to the job to prevent the Kurds from war. divert everyone’s attention from a gaining the honour of taking Raqqa, Historians wrote about how it was surprise attack elsewhere, perhaps the current great prize in the war on captured from the Romans by the on Raqqa? Or does it speak of differ- ISIS. second Muslim caliph, Umar ibn al- ences between Russia and Turkey Khattab, in the seventh century and over who controls what in northern All options are on the Muslim Shias paid particular atten- Syria, with each side advancing its table if Erdogan tion to al-Bab because it housed the proxies to secure as much terri- doesn’t jump fully tomb and shrine of the brother of tory as possible before US President into Putin’s lap. the fourth caliph, Ali ibn Abi Talib, Donald Trump decides to take uni- son-in-law of the Prophet Moham- lateral action on Syria? mad and who, along with his wife, Trump has often repeated his de- is revered by Shias. sire to establish no-fly safe zones in Trump refused to end his back- But now, al-Bab is a strategic tar- Syria to prevent the flow of more ing for Syrian Kurds, and earlier in get for the principal powers engaged refugees — a phenomenon that he February, the US Army received re- in the labyrinthine Syrian war. It is clearly dreads — and his words have quests for anti-tank weapons, mine also at the vortex of the political in- been music to Erdogan’s ears. detectors and other equipment to trigues that have long dictated the Such a safe zone would be ex- help them complete their advance course of the nearly 6-year-old sav- pensive and require protection on Raqqa. age conflict. from both ground and air forces. This likely sent shivers down Er- In 2013, two years into the Syria Although the Americans are reluc- dogan’s spine. He is desperately try- war, al-Bab was overrun by the Is- tant to get involved in such a risky ing to talk Trump out of the project, lamic State (ISIS). Since November enterprise, the Turks would gladly inching dangerously close to upset- 2016, the Turkish Army has been offer if asked. ting the Russians. advancing on al-Bab with the de- On February 9th, however, Rus- They want him to understand clared objective of liberating it from sian warplanes bombed a Turkish that they are the ones in control of ISIS. position in al-Bab, killing four sol- Syria, not the United States.