Gesellschaft für German Affi liate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) Strahlenschutz e.V. Health Effects of Chernobyl 25 years after the reactor catastrophe Advance Copy (embargoed till April 8) April 2011 IPPNW Körtestraße 10 10967 Berlin Tel ++49-30-69 80 74-0 Fax ++49-30-693 81 66 E-Mail: [email protected] Internet: www.tschernobyl-folgen.de Gesellschaft für Strahlenschutz Gormannstraße 17 10119 Berlin Tel. ++49-30-4493736, Fax ++49-30-44342834 Email: Pfl [email protected] Internet: www.gfstrahlenschutz.de Health effects of Chernobyl | IPPNW and GFS Report April 2011 - 2 - Authors: Dr. rer. nat. Sebastian Pflugbeil, Society for Radiation Protection Henrik Paulitz, IPPNW Dr. med. Angelika Claussen, IPPNW Prof. Dr. Inge Schmitz-Feuerhake, Society for Radiation Protection With the support of Strahlentelex information service Health effects of Chernobyl | IPPNW and GFS Report April 2011 - 3 - Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................5 Note on the unreliability of official data published by WHO and IAEA ..................................9 What IPPNW and the Society for Radiation Protection are calling for .................................10 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................12 Excursus: Key data from the Chernobyl Catastrophe ......................................................14 2. Liquidators ..............................................................................................................17 2.1 Premature aging process as a result of radiation exposure........................................19 2.2 Cancer and leukaemia..........................................................................................21 2.3 Damage to the nervous system ..............................................................................22 2.4 Psychological disorders ........................................................................................23 2.5 Heart and circulatory diseases ..............................................................................25 3.4 Other illnesses ....................................................................................................25 2.7 Children of liquidators..........................................................................................26 3. Infant mortality ........................................................................................................28 3.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................28 3.2 Germany.............................................................................................................29 3.3 Other countries....................................................................................................30 Excursus: Miscarriages and pregnancy terminations ......................................................31 4. Genetic and teratogenic damage (malformations).........................................................34 4.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................35 4.2 Germany.............................................................................................................38 Excursus: Chernobyl effects on animals in Europe.........................................................41 4.3 Other countries....................................................................................................43 5. Thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases ...................................................................45 6.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................45 5.2 Germany.............................................................................................................51 5.3 Other countries....................................................................................................51 6. All cancers and leukaemia.........................................................................................52 6.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................52 6.2 Germany.............................................................................................................58 6.3 Other countries....................................................................................................59 7. Other illnesses following Chernobyl ............................................................................61 Excursus: Consequences of a super-GAU in Germany ....................................................64 * see footnote on page 7 Health effects of Chernobyl | IPPNW and GFS Report April 2011 - 4 - Abbreviations Bq – Becquerel describes the activity of radioactive material and gives the number of nucleii that decay per second. ERR the excess Relative Risk describes the risk of falling ill. Gy – Gray Gray measures the energy dose that ionising radiation emits. 1 Gy = 1 J/kg IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency. ICRP International Commission on Radiological Protection man Sv collective dose = number of people (man) x average dose (Sv). RERF Radiation Effects Research Foundation Sv – Sievert a sievert is the unit of measurement for the radiation dose. The limit officially considered in Germany to be safe is 0.001 Sv (1 mSv) per annum. UNSCEAR United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. WHO World Health Organisation. Map of 137Cs deposition levels in Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine as of December 1989 SOURCE: International Advisory Committee. The International Chernobyl Project. Technical Report. IAEA, Vienna (1991) Caesium-137 contaminated areas in Ukraine SOURCE: De Cort M, Dubois G, Fridman ShD, Germenchuk MG, Izrael YuA, Janssens A, Jones AR, Kelly GN, Kvasnikova EV, Matveenko II, Nazarov IM,.Pokumeiko YuM, Sitak VA, Stukin ED, Tabachny LYa. Tsaturov YuS and Avdyushin SI (1998) Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident. EUR Report 16733. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg Health effects of Chernobyl | IPPNW and GFS Report April 2011 - 5 - Executive Summary “The atomic industry could take a catastrophe like Chernobyl every year.” Hans Blix, 1986 in his capacity as director of the IAEA This paper evaluates studies that contain plausible indications of health damage caused by the Chernobyl catastrophe. The authors of this paper attach importance to the selection of methodically accurate and comprehensible analyses. Due to the already mentioned methodical difficulties, it is not our aim to present the “right” statistics in contrast to the obviously wrong ones given by the IAEA, since these can never be found. They can only supply us with indications as to the diversity and extent of the health effects we should be dealing with when we talk about the health effects of Chernobyl. Populations which were particularly exposed to radiation by the Chernobyl catastrophe a. Clean-up workers (liquidators): 830,000 (Yablokov 2010) b. Evacuees from the 30 km zone and other highly contaminated zones: 350,400 (Yablokov, 2010) c. The population of the heavily irradiated zones in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine: 8,300,000 (Yablokov, 2010) d. European population in zones with minor exposure to radiation: 600.000.000 (Fairlie, 2007) Disease/health damage is to be expected as a result of additional exposure to radiation because of Chernobyl a. Cancer. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the latency period for many types of cancer is 25 – 30 years. At present we are only just seeing cases of thyroid cancers, breast cancers and brain tumours In the population. But liquidators have also developed cancer in numerous other organs: the prostate gland, stomach, cancer of the blood, thyroid cancer b. Genetic changes: malformations, stillbirths, the lack of children c. Non-cancerous diseases. Many organ systems could be affected; brain disorders; accelerated aging process; psychological disorders Summary of findings 1. The effects of low–level radiation (0 – 500 mSv) were systematically monitored and investigated. In particular, the genetic effects were unclear prior to Chernobyl. This research has been augmented by research on cells, as well as on the molecular structures inside the cells. Despite this, the ICRP continues to give a dose limit of Health effects of Chernobyl | IPPNW and GFS Report April 2011 - 6 - 100 mSv for teratogenic damage. This claim has been invalidated by numerous studies. 2. Non-targeted effects, such as genomic instability and the bystander effect have been found, i.e. change in the genomes of cells not directly affected by radiation. 3. The lower the radiation level, the longer the latency period before the outbreak of cancer (established as early as 2000 by Pierce and Preston in the context of the RERF studies) 4. The genomic instability is passed on in the genes and increases exponentially with each generation. Numerous research findings showing chromosome aberrations in the children of liquidators and mothers who were not exposed to radiation are available in the research centres of all three affected republics (Moscow, Minsk, Kiev). First signs of the cumulation effect could be cases of thyroid cancer among the children of irradiated parents. However, this is not yet certain. 5. It was found that