Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report IISD ECN Report with Support of CCRD & PITCO Seton Stiebert September 2016 CONTENTS Contents ................................................................................................................................................. ii Tables and Figures ................................................................................................................................. iv Glossary / Acronymns .......................................................................................................................... vii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Reference case Scenario Development.......................................................................................... 2 2.1 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Socio-Economic Trends and Projection Assumptions ............................................................ 4 2.2.1 Economic Growth ........................................................................................................... 5 2.2.2 Population ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.3 Energy Supply ................................................................................................................. 6 2.2.4 Technology Adoption ..................................................................................................... 7 3. Emission Reference case Projection .............................................................................................. 8 3.1 Residential, Commercial and Agriculture Energy Demand Sub-Sector ................................ 10 3.1.1 Data and assumptions .................................................................................................. 10 3.1.2 End-use Allocation ........................................................................................................ 11 3.1.3 Projections .................................................................................................................... 12 3.1.4 Results .......................................................................................................................... 15 3.1.5 Data gaps and uncertainty ........................................................................................... 16 3.2 Industry Sub-Sector .............................................................................................................. 18 3.2.1 Data and assumptions .................................................................................................. 18 3.2.2 End-use Allocation ........................................................................................................ 19 3.2.3 Projections .................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.4 Results .......................................................................................................................... 22 3.2.5 Data availability and uncertainty ................................................................................. 24 3.3 Fossil Fuel Production Sector ............................................................................................... 25 3.3.1 Data and assumptions .................................................................................................. 25 3.3.2 Projections .................................................................................................................... 26 3.3.2 Results .......................................................................................................................... 26 3.3.3 Data availability and uncertainty ................................................................................. 27 ii 3.4 Transportation Sub-Sector ................................................................................................... 28 3.4.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 28 3.4.2 Data and assumptions .................................................................................................. 28 3.4.3 End-use Allocation ........................................................................................................ 29 3.4.4 Projections .................................................................................................................... 29 3.4.5 Results .......................................................................................................................... 30 3.4.6 Data availability and uncertainty ................................................................................. 34 3.5 Electricity Sub-Sector ........................................................................................................... 36 3.5.1 Data and assumptions .................................................................................................. 37 3.5.2 End-use Allocation ........................................................................................................ 43 3.5.3 Projections .................................................................................................................... 45 3.5.4 Results .......................................................................................................................... 47 3.5.5 Data availability and uncertainty ................................................................................. 51 3.6 Agriculture Sector ................................................................................................................ 53 3.6.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 53 3.6.2 Data and Assumptions ................................................................................................. 54 3.6.3 Burning of crop residues .............................................................................................. 55 3.6.4 Nitrogen fertilizer use .................................................................................................. 56 3.6.5 Flooding Rice ................................................................................................................ 57 3.6.6 Projections .................................................................................................................... 57 3.6.7 Results .......................................................................................................................... 58 3.6.8 Data availability and uncertainty ................................................................................. 58 3.7 LULUCF Sector ...................................................................................................................... 60 3.7.1 Data and Assumptions ................................................................................................. 61 3.7.2 Results .......................................................................................................................... 61 3.7.3 Data availability and uncertainty ................................................................................. 62 3.8 Waste ................................................................................................................................... 64 3.8.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 64 3.8.2 Data and Assumptions ................................................................................................. 64 3.8.3 Results .......................................................................................................................... 68 iii 3.8.4 Data availability and uncertainty ................................................................................. 68 4. Uncertainty Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 70 4.1 Comparison of Reference case with NEEDS Analysis ........................................................... 70 4.1.1 Energy Sector ............................................................................................................... 72 4.1.2 Agriculture .................................................................................................................... 73 4.1.3 Industry (Industrial Processes) ..................................................................................... 73 4.1.4 LULUCF ......................................................................................................................... 73 4.1.5 Waste ........................................................................................................................... 73 4.2 Reference case Projection Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................... 74 4.2.1 GDP Growth.................................................................................................................. 74 4.2.2 Autonomous Energy Efficiency Improvements ............................................................ 76 4.2.3 Summary of Uncertainty Analysis ...............................................................................