THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: CONSEQUENCES AND POLICY APPROACHES Valeska Esch Viktoria Palm (eds.) Supported by: The Aspen Institute Germany wishes to thank the German Federal Foreign Office for its support. Copyright © 2020 by The Aspen Institute Deutschland e.V. Aspen Institute Deutschland e.V. Friedrichstr. 60 10117 Berlin Deutschland www.aspeninstitute.de +49 30 80 48 90 0 The mission of the Aspen Institute Germany is to improve the quality of leadership through dialog about the values and ideals essential to meeting the challenges facing organizations and governments at all levels. Over its forty-five-year history, Aspen Germany has been devoted to advancing values- based leadership – to creating a safe, neutral space in which leaders can meet in order to discuss the complex challenges facing modern societies confidentially and in depth, with respect for differing points of view, in a search for common ground. The Aspen Institute Germany is an independent, non-partisan, and non-profit institute. Its role is limited to that of an organizer and convener. Aspen Germany takes no institutional position on policy issues and does not represent the U.S. or German government. This publication includes conference papers and proceedings of Aspen Germany’s Western Balkans Regional Dialog project in 2020. All statements of facts and expressions of opinion contained in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author(s). All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express, prior, written permission of the publisher. Responsible Editor: Valeska Esch Deputy Executive Director Program Director Europe Aspen Institute Deutschland e.V. Friedrichstr. 60 10117 Berlin Deutschland Printed by: Sprintout Digitaldruck GmbH Grunewaldstraße 18 10823 Berlin. TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD BY AMBASSADOR SUSANNE SCHÜTZ 3 INTRODUCTION 5 SUMMARY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 7 EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC ON DEMOCRACY, RULE OF LAW, AND CIVIL SOCIETY 14 Workshop Report 14 Viktoria Palm The Western Balkans and Covid-19: Effects on Good Governance, Rule of Law, and Civil Society 18 Think for Europe Network (TEN) Albania 20 Alban Dafa Bosnia and Herzegovina 24 Anida Šabanović, Emina Kuhinja, Mahir Sijamija Kosovo 28 Dr. Arbëresha Loxha, Njomza Arifi Montenegro 33 Milena Muk North Macedonia 37 Biljana Kotevska, Dr. Simonida Kacarska, Angel Mojsovski, Iva Conevska, Ismail Kamberi, Juliana Karai Serbia 40 Sena Marić, Srđan Majstorović Road Ahead 45 Think for Europe Network (TEN) THE ROLES OF KEY INTERNATIONAL ACTORS IN THE REGION AMIDST THE COVID-19 CRISIS 47 Workshop Report 47 Viktoria Palm The Role of China in the Western Balkans During the Covid-19 Pandemic 50 Dr. Jens Bastian Covid-19 and Russian Influence in the Western Balkans 57 Dr. Dimitar Bechev Turkey’s Activities in the Western Balkans During the Covid-19 Crisis 60 Dr. Ahmet Erdi Öztürk ASPEN POLICY PROGRAM Table of Contents ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE WESTERN BALKANS 65 Workshop Report 65 Sandra Schwalen The Impact of Covid-19 in Albania: How to Turn the Crisis into an Opportunity 67 Ornela Liperi Covid-19 in Bosnia and Herzegovina – From Lockdown to Recovery? 74 Ognjen Đukić, Marko Martić, Aleksandar Zivanovic Socio-Economic Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Kosovo 80 Dr. Visar Vokrri Covid-19 – Can Montenegro Reshape its Economy? 84 Dr. Igor Lukšić Review of the Existing Evidence on the Socio-Economic Effect of Covid-19 in North Macedonia 90 Despina Tumanoska Covid-19 and Serbia’s Economy: A Differentiated Impact Calls for a Differentiated Policy Response 94 Dr. Kori Udovički Covid-19 Fallout in the Western Balkans: Old Problems, New Challenges, and Looking for 101 Opportunities in the Post-Pandemic World Richard Grieveson REGIONAL COOPERATION AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE WESTERN BALKANS 106 Workshop Report 106 Sandra Schwalen Lessons Learned From the Crisis and the Role of Regional Cooperation in Fighting Economic 108 Repercussions Dr. Jelica Minić WESTERN BALKANS WORKING GROUP 115 Working Group Report 115 Sarah Fischer LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 119 ABOUT ASPEN 121 FOREWORD Ambassador Susanne Schütz Director for South-Eastern Europe, Turkey, OSCE and Council of Europe German Federal Foreign Office 2020 was no ordinary year. Above all it was a year of consequential changes, forcing governments and people all over the world to adapt to new realities. The pandemic also became the prevalent topic for the European Union and the German Council Presidency. Confronted with the advance of Covid-19 in spring 2020, the Western Balkans initially curbed the early outbreak. Nevertheless, the region was, unfortunately, heavily struck by the still ongoing wave of Covid-19. Concurrently, the crisis resulted in a notable economic contraction across the region. The Western Balkan economies were hereby affected through several channels: Exports, the disruption of transnational value chains, a deceleration of public and private investment, a decline in tourism and an interrupted flow of remittances were among the most notable economic impacts. The European Union reacted quickly to these alarming developments and took decisive action in a spirit of solidarity. After granting over 400 million EUR for immediate support and the socio-economic recovery in March, it announced an unparalleled support package totaling of 3.3 billion EUR in April. Together with the unprecedented Economic and Investment Plan totaling 9 billion EUR announced this fall, the European Union is heavily investing in the economic recovery of the region – building upon the shared strategic goal of EU membership. Faster progress towards the future membership of the Western Balkan countries in the European Union is therefore more important than ever. The European Union remains firmly committed to this goal, as demonstrated in March with the endorsement of the revised enlargement methodology and the decision to open accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. Now, everything should be done to ensure that first Accession Conferences with both countries can take place under the Portuguese Council Presidency. At the same time, further progress in the enlargement process by the other Western Balkan countries is needed. In that regard, the pledge of the Western Balkan countries at the Zagreb Summit in May 2020 to uphold European values and principles and to carry out necessary reforms thoroughly and vigorously, is especially important. Against this backdrop, the agreement reached by leaders of the Western Balkans at this year’s Berlin Process Summit to establish a Common Regional Market is of enormous importance. It will strengthen and integrate the region’s economies based on the rules and standards of the European Union, thus helping to make use of these funds in the most efficient way. The Common Regional Market will enable the Western Balkans to recover faster from the Covid-19 pandemic and will bring concrete economic benefits for the citizens. The same goes for the agreement on establishing free movement with ID cards. With their substantial commitments, the Western Balkan countries have demonstrated that they are determined to significantly improve regional cooperation. This is a very positive development, which will also promote good-neighborly relations. It is paramount now that the implementation of these projects advances quickly, in parallel with pursuing the other main strands of the Berlin Process, e.g. youth, security, missing persons, health, and science. In summer 2021, the Berlin Process will return to Berlin and give the Western Balkans a prominent platform for taking the next major steps in their joint cooperation. - 3 - ASPEN POLICY PROGRAM Foreword Moving forward on reforms and cooperation is also essential for another reason: Over the past years, the Western Balkans have been experiencing a challenging migration crisis. This “brain drain” of often highly skilled people towards the European Union is a serious problem for the long-term development of the region. The reasons are multifaceted, ranging from frustration over political stagnation and corruption to economic underperformance. Therefore, it is imperative that the governments in the region make rule of law and economic reforms a top priority if they want to turn the tide. Especially young people want to see a perspective at home for developing both professionally and personally. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic – and of mass migration – on the Western Balkans has been covered extensively by the Aspen Institute Germany. I highly appreciate the well-founded reports and the excellent in- depth workshops with esteemed experts, government representatives and civil society. I would like to express my gratitude to the Aspen Institute Germany for its important work and am looking forward to our continued cooperation in 2021! - 4 - INTRODUCTION Dear friends of the Aspen Institute Germany, 2020 has been an extraordinary test for international and European solidarity. The global pandemic hit the international community unexpectedly and unprepared, and – even in the EU – national responses initially dominated over joint solutions, exposing the limits of solidarity in times of crisis. At the same time, however, the pandemic has highlighted the interconnectedness and interdependencies of a globalized world and underlined the importance of coordination and cooperation to address global challenges, in particular within the EU. Therefore, at the EU level national responses were soon complemented