Strategic Mid-term Evaluation of the Facility for Refugees in Turkey 2016-2019/2020 Prepared by Final Report Volume I: Main Report June 2021 Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations STRATEGIC MID-TERM EVALUATION OF THE 2 FACILITY FOR REFUGEES IN TURKEY, 2016–2019/2020 Evaluation implemented by Landell Mills Ltd with support from IOD PARC and Development Analytics Consortium composed of Landell Mills Ltd, Adam Smith International Ltd, Le Groupe-conseil Baastel, CEval GmbH, ICON-INSTITUTE GmbH & Co. KG Consulting Gruppe, Integrity Research and Consultancy Ltd, IOD PARC, Linpico Sarl and PROMAN S.A. The evaluation was conducted by Lewis Sida – Team Leader Core Experts – Julian Murray, Meltem Aran, Christopher Talbot, Elizabeth Dyke, Nur Abdelkhaliq Zamora and Francis Watkins National and Fieldwork Team – Gökçe Baykal, Safir Sumer, Nazli Aktakke, Hazal Colak, Yali Hajhassan. Project Management and Technical Support – Hannah Isaac and Tom Barton The evaluation was managed by DG NEAR Evaluation Managers – Lena Zimmer, Martina Stuka, and Didem Ergin Ulaç Cover Image: The project has major activities; namely Turkish language education, Arabic language education, FRAMEWORK CONTRACT COM 2015 catch-up and back-up classes, transportation Europe Aid/137211/DH/SER/MuIti/2018/401148/1 services, assistance in stationery items, course Specific Contract: N° 2018/401 148 books and clothing, awareness activities, procurement of education materials, development of a Turkish language testing system, guidance Strategic Mid-term Evaluation of the Facility for Refugees in and counselling services, provision of security and Turkey, 2016-2019/2020 cleaning staff to schools and TECs, provision of education instruments, training of teachers, training This document has been prepared for the European Commission of administrative and other personnel, monitoring however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the and evaluation. Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which © 2018 European Union may be made of the information contained therein. (photographer: Berna Cetin) STRATEGIC MID-TERM EVALUATION OF THE 3 FACILITY FOR REFUGEES IN TURKEY, 2016–2019/2020 Contents Figures 5 Acronyms 6 Executive Summary 10 1 Introduction 15 2 Context 18 2.1. The Syrian crisis, refugee flows and the political/migration context 19 2.1.1. The EU-Turkey Statement 20 2.2. The Facility for Refugees in Turkey 22 2.2.1. Key characteristics 22 2.2.2. Financial resources and instruments 23 2.2.3. Facility governance, management and implementation 24 2.2.4. Facility objectives 26 2.2.5. Summary of Facility interventions 27 2.3. The political and socio-economic situation in Turkey 30 2.3.1. Attempted coup d’état and aftermath (2016 – present) 30 2.3.2. Economic instability (2018 – present) 31 2.3.3. COVID-19 pandemic 32 2.3.4. Refugee policy changes 32 2.3.5. EU-Turkey relations 32 2.4. Regulatory frameworks for refugee hosting in Turkey and the EU 33 2.4.1. EU asylum and migration framework 33 2.4.2. Turkish asylum and migration framework 35 3 Methodology 38 4 Key findings of the evaluation 42 4.1. Strategic evaluation questions 43 4.1.1. EQ1: To what extent are the Facility strategy and interventions responding to the real needs of the target population and of the hosting country? 43 4.1.2. EQ2: To what extent has the Facility contributed, and is at present contributing, to creating an environment of equal opportunities for all, in particular for the most vulnerable groups of population as per the ‘no-one left behind’ and protection principles? 47 4.1.3. EQ3: To what extent, and how, have the institutional set-up, programming approach and implementation procedures of the Facility influenced its capacity to generate the expected outputs and contribute to the achievement of outcomes and impacts? What other factors – political, organisational, human, technical or financial – have influenced the performance of the Facility? 54 4.1.4. EQ4: To what extent did the Facility Results Framework and monitoring/reporting approach contribute to a coordinated and coherent Facility response and to adapted management and learning? 62 4.1.5. EQ5: To what extent is the Facility’s strategy and programming in line with the tenets of the Global Compact for Refugees and Lives in Dignity? 66 STRATEGIC MID-TERM EVALUATION OF THE 4 FACILITY FOR REFUGEES IN TURKEY, 2016–2019/2020 4.1.6. EQ6: To what extent is the Facility-strategy relevant to and coherent with the EU’s overall policy and normative framework, relevant policy orientations and sectoral frameworks, and with relevant international standards? 72 4.1.7. EQ7: To what extent has the Facility been, and is at present, maximising the EU cooperation potential and the EU added value? 76 4.2. Evaluation questions on sectors supported by the Facility 81 4.2.1. EQ8: To what extent have the Facility interventions contributed to an increased participation (enrolment, retention, transition, completion) in inclusive, equitable, quality education of refugee children and youth? 81 4.2.2. EQ9: To what extent has the Facility contributed in an inclusive and equitable way to the availability, accessibility and demand for healthcare services – and as a consequence contributed to an improved health status of the refugee population? 87 4.2.3. EQ10: To what extent has the Facility contributed in an inclusive and equitable way to basic needs, employment prospects, livelihood opportunities and social cohesion – and as a result contributed to an improved socio-economic situation of refugees? 98 4.2.4. EQ11: To what extent has the Facility contributed to the registration and referral of refugees to appropriate protection services? 106 5 The Facility’s response to the COVID-19 crisis 114 5.1. National response to COVID-19 in Turkey 115 5.2. Impact of COVID-19 on refugees 116 5.3. Facility response 117 5.4. Impact of COVID-19 on Facility results 119 6 Environment as a cross-cutting issue 121 7 Conclusions 126 8 Recommendations (strategic) 132 STRATEGIC MID-TERM EVALUATION OF THE 5 FACILITY FOR REFUGEES IN TURKEY, 2016–2019/2020 Figures Figure 1 Total number of Syrian refugees registered by Turkey, 2011 – 2020 (millions) 19 Figure 2 Immigrants from outside the EU-27 and emigrants to outside the EU-27, 2013 – 2018 (millions) 19 Figure 3 Number of asylum applicants in the EU-27, 2008-2019 (millions) 20 Figure 4 Arrivals by sea and resettlements under the Statement, 2015 – 2020 21 Figure 5 Resources mobilised through the Facility by external financing instrument (Tranche I) 23 Figure 6 Facility organisational structure 25 Figure 7 Breakdown of Facility support across sectors 30 Figure 8 Evaluation phases, activities and outputs 40 Figure 9 Differences between DGMM data and IOM migration study data 45 Figure 10 % ESSN benefit distributed across PAB quintiles 49 Figure 11 Humanitarian and development funding allocations between the first and second tranche of the Facility 68 Figure 12 Alignment of the Facility with SDGs 72 Figure 13 Key policy frameworks of the EU and how the Facility aligns with them 74 Figure 14 International humanitarian funding to Turkey, 2013 – 2019 79 Figure 15 Reasons for dissatisfaction from healthcare organisations expressed by SuTP respondents to SIHHAT 94 pre and post surveys (2018 and 2020) Figure 16 Barriers to healthcare access across different groups 95 Figure 17 Satisfaction from the healthcare organisations applied in the recent year (%) for 2018 and 2020 97 Figure 18 System map of the awareness-raising and information ecosystem 108 Figure 19 Measures to increase the sustainability of EU trust funds 127 STRATEGIC MID-TERM EVALUATION OF THE 6 FACILITY FOR REFUGEES IN TURKEY, 2016–2019/2020 Acronyms 3RP Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan AFAD Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ALMP Active Labour Market Programme ANC Ante-Natal Care ASAM Association for Solidarity with Asylum Seekers and Migrants ASDEP Family Social Support Programme (MoFLSS) CCTE Conditional Cash Transfer for Education CEAS Common European Asylum System CEFM Child, Early and Forced Marriage CHCs Community Health Centres CID Commission Implementing Decision CM Case Management CMHC Community Mental Health Centre COHAFA Council on Humanitarian Aid and Food Aid CSO Civil Society Organisation CVME Comprehensive Vulnerability Monitoring Exercise DG Directorate General DG ECHO Directorate General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations DG NEAR Directorate General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations DGMM Directorate General for Migration Management (Turkey) DRC Danish Refugee Council EAMR External Assistance Management Report EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission ECE Early Childhood Education ECA European Court of Auditors ECHR European Convention on Human Rights EEAS European External Action Service EMHC Extended Migrant Health Centre EQ Evaluation Question ESSN Emergency Social Safety Net EU European Union EUD Delegation of the European Union (to Turkey) EUNA European Union’s Needs Assessment EUR Euro EUTF European Union Regional Trust Fund in Response to The Syrian Crisis (‘EUTF Madad Fund’) FAFA Financial and Administrative Framework Agreement STRATEGIC MID-TERM EVALUATION OF THE 7 FACILITY FOR REFUGEES IN TURKEY, 2016–2019/2020 FGD Focus Group Discussion FHCs Family Health Centres FMR Facility Monitoring Report FPA Framework Partnership Agreement FPI Foreign Policy Instrument FR Facility for Refugees FS Facility Secretariat FSNA First Stage