Second National Communication of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Belgrade, August 2017 Second National Communication of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Published by: Ministry of Environmental Protection Coordinated by: Operational GEF Focal Point and National UNFCCC Focal Point of the Ministry of Environmental Protection UNDP Project team Photos: UNDP CO Serbia Design: Tatjana Kuburovic Translated by: Aleksandra Dobric Stanosevic Printed in 100 copies Report has been prepared within the framework of the project “Second National Communication under the UNFCCC for the Republic of Serbia”, implemented by the Ministry of Environmental Protection with technical support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Numerous national and international experts, representatives of universities, scientific and research institutes and relevant national institutions have been involved in the preparation of the report. 2 SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. SUMMARY 1.1. National circumstances 9 1.2 National greenhouse gases inventory 11 1.3 Projected GHG emissions by 2030 11 1.4 Long-term GHG emission reduction by 2050 12 1.5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 12 1.6 Implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 13 1.7 Financial, technological and capacity building needs 14 2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 2.1. Geographic profile 19 2.2. Climate profile 19 2.3 Social and-political system 20 2.4 Population 20 2.5. Main characteristics in relevant sectors 21 2.5.1. Economy 21 2.5.2. Energy 22 2.5.3. Industry 23 2.5.4 Transportation 23 2.5.5. Agriculture 24 2.5.6. Land-use change and forestry 25 2.5.7. Waste management sector 25 2.5.8. Water management 26 2.6 State of implementation of the UNFCCC 26 3. NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 3.1. General information 31 3.2. Methodology 32 3.3. GHG Inventory and trends by sector 33 3.3.1. Energy sector 33 3.3.2. Industrial processes 35 3.3.3. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector (AFOLU) 38 SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 3 3.3.4. Waste management sector 40 3.4. GHG emissions and removals and gas trends 42 3.4.1. Carbon dioxide (CO2) 42 3.4.2. Methane (CH4) 44 3.4.3. Nitrous oxide (N2О) 46 3.4.4. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 49 3.5. Total emissions and trends of total GHG emissions 50 3.5.1. By sectors 50 3.5.2. By gases 51 3.6. Key categories 53 3.7. Uncertainty analysis 55 4. PROJECTED GHG EMISSIONS FOR THE PERIOD UNTIL 2020 4.1. Methodology 59 4.2. Scenarios of the total GHG emissions 59 4.2.1. Basic scenario 59 4.2.2. Scenario “with measures” 60 4.2.3. Scenario “with additional measures” 60 4.2.4. Levels and trends of total GHG emissions 61 4.3. GHG emissions scenario by sectors 62 4.3.1. Energy sector 62 4.3.2. Industrial processes 66 4.3.3. Agriculture 67 4.3.4. Waste management sector 67 4.4. NАМАs 68 5. LONGTERM FRAME FOR GHG EMISSION REDUCTION BY 2050 5.1. Scenarios and trend 75 6. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION MEASURE 6.1. Observed and expected climate changes 81 6.1.1. Methodology 81 6.1.2. Observed climate changes 81 6.1.3. Climate change scenarios 83 6.1.4. Comparative analysis of climate change scenarios 84 6.2. Vulnerability and adaptation measures 85 6.2.1. Hydrology and Water Resources 85 6.2.2. Forestry 90 4 SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 6.2.3. Agriculture 95 6.2.4. Health 101 7. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 7.1. General information 107 7.2. Institutional framework 107 7.3. Legislative framework and policies 108 7.4. Research and systematic observation 110 7.5. Education, training and public awareness 111 7.6. Билатерална, регионална и међународна сарадња 113 7.7. Monitoring, reporting and verification (МRV) 113 8. FINANCIAL, TECHNOLOGICAL AND CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDS 8.1. Institutional needs 117 8.2. Developing GHG inventory 117 8.3. Adaptation to climate change 118 8.4. GHG emission reduction 118 9. ANNEXES 127 10. LITERATURE 150 11. LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 152 12. LIST OF TABLES 154 13. LIST OF FIGURES 156 SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 5 1. SUMMARY 1.1. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES Geographic profile The Republic of Serbia is located in the central part of the Balkan Peninsula, covering a total surface area of 88,361 km2. Serbia has three major geographical areas: the Pannonian Plain; hilly areas with lower mountains; and low-lands and mountainous area. The highest mountain peak is Đeravica in the Prokletije Range (2656 m) and the longest river is the Danube (588 km). Climate profile For the most part Serbia has a moderate continental climate. July is the warmest month, and January is the coldest. June is the month with most rainfall. The months with the least rain are February and October. Snow typically occurs from November to March, with the highest snowfall recorded in January. Northwesterly and westerly winds are the rule in the warm season, while easterly and southeasterly winds (the Košava) prevail during the cold season. Socio-political system The Republic of Serbia is an independent democratic state (since 2006) with a multi-party parliamentary system. In March 2012, Serbia was granted EU candidate status. The system divides the institutions of government into three branches: legislative, executive and judicial. Population The largest cities in Serbia are the capital city of Belgrade (1,659,440 inhabitants), Novi Sad (341,625), Niš (260,237) and Kragujevac (179,417). The majority of the population is Serbian (83.3%), and the three largest ethnic minorities are Hungarians, Roma people and Bosniaks. Main characteristics in relevant sectors Economic and sectoral reforms in Serbia began in 2001. The energy sector accounts for 10% of the GDP. Primary energy is generated by exploitation and use of local sources of coal, crude oil, natural gas and renewable energy sources (hydro, geothermal energy and biomass). Electricity is produced from the combustion of low quality domestic lignite in existing power plants and the use of hydropower potential in the existing flow and pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations. The industrial sector accounts for 22.4% of the GDP. Industrial production is still primarily based only on uncompetitive traditional technologies, of previous generations and older (dating from the 70’s and the 80’s SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 9 of the last century). In recent years, the so-called “high – technology” sub-sectors, such as car industry, the production of electrical and, electronic devices, as well as ICT have increased their presence in the industrial production phase. Road transport has traditionally been the most dominant form of transportation. Rail passenger transport has been in continuous decline since 2004. In 2013 there were 50% less passengers compared to 2000. The new law on railways was enacted, which should contribute to high railway system efficiency. Inland navigation is another important form of transport (the second most common form of transport of goods). However, the utilization of the existing facilities in the river traffic is very low. In recent years, state policy has been directed towards the development of intermodal transportation. Agriculture is one of the key components in the Serbian economy, accounting for 9.5% of GDP (2013). With 10% of the labor force working in food processing industry, agricultural services and food manufacturing companies, agricultural sector employs more people than any other industry. In 2000-2013, the intended use of 1.15% of total land area was changed. The most significant changes occurred in urban areas, where pastures and mixed agricultural land was converted into construction sites. According to the National Forest Inventory, forests cover 2,252,400 ha, or 29.1% of the total area. State- owned forests cover 53% of the land and 47% are privately owned. According to the data provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia in 2014, forests cover 2,168,746 ha (44% are state-owned forests, and 56% are privately owned). The share of waste management sector in GDP is 1.2%, with a growth rate of 0.3% in 2012. Over the last twenty years, average waste composition has continuously changed, and the amount of waste collected has increased. The collected waste is disposed of at disposal sites that do not meet sanitary landfill standards. Surface water and groundwater are both important sources for community water supply needs. Estimates have shown that about 20% of supplied water is irreversibly lost. The key sources of water pollution are: untreated industrial and municipal wastewater, agricultural drainage water, leaching water from landfills, and pollution related to river navigation and operation of power plants. State of implementation of the UNFCCC The Ministry of Environmental Protection (MoEP) is responsible for climate change on a national level and for reporting under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Having in mind multi-disciplinary nature of the climate change issues, and with the view to more effective reporting under the UNFCCC, the Government of the Republic of Serbia established the National Climate Change Committee (The National Committee).