Time Dynamics and Stability of Political Identity and Political Communication Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Jacob A. Long, M.A. Graduate Program in Communication The Ohio State University 2020 Dissertation Committee William P. Eveland, Jr., Adviser Gerald M. Kosicki Michael D. Slater Christopher R. Browning Copyrighted by Jacob A. Long 2020 Abstract Several of the most important constructs in political communication research appear to be quite stable over time: media use, political discussion, and partisanship. If these constructs change only very rarely, it would cast doubt on theories presuming that they affect one another. On the other hand, it may be the case that they are only conditionally stable, such that if some factor or factors were altered, change in these constructs would be expected. This project explores the possibility that communication can both promote and undermine consistency in identity, a little-appreciated type of effect in communication research. The apparent stability of attitudes and behaviors has figured prominently in several prominent scholarly findings and debates in the discipline. I describe some ambiguity in how researchers define stability and provide a clear framework and definition for stability and communication effects. From there, I demonstrate how stability can be analyzed in the context of quantitative research designs. My approach to modeling stability can seamlessly integrate both the individual-level predictors of stability while still allowing for the discovery of the more familiar type of media effect that change the mean level of a variable. Furthermore, a technical analysis of the statistical evidence claiming to demonstrate high stability of communication and identity reveals that such claims are likely overstated. Using insights from social identity research, the project shows how there may be more variability than meets the eye when it comes to partisan identity. Rather than categorical shifts between Republican and Democrat, this variability comes in the form of changes in the strength of the identity as well as the impact of the identity on one’s self-esteem. It was expected that identity motivates communication, yet communication also affects identity. Rather than cause ii extreme identities and excessive communication, however, people generally achieve an equilibrium in which their communication is just sufficient to maintain their current level of affiliation. Although congenial political communication may bolster the strength of partisan identity, I argue that those with strong identities require some level of such communications just to resist an inherent pull toward moderation. To explore these relationships, an intensive longitudinal design with daily surveys of the same group of respondents over a 3-week timespan was used. Having granular information on communication and political identity made it possible to capture the real variation in these constructs that occurs on a day-to-day basis, especially communication behaviors that are constrained by the routines of daily life like work, school, and the weekend. Results suggest that congenial political communication indeed increase the strength of one’s partisan identity. Although some forms of political communication, especially discussion, can destabilize identity, the evidence suggests that in-party sources promote identity stability. The results also suggest an important role of exposure to differing views as potentially important for moderating and destabilizing identities. iii Acknowledgments I would like to begin by acknowledging my adviser, Dr. Chip Eveland. When I visited Ohio State as a prospective student, I had a meeting with Chip. I expressed some uncertainty about whether Ohio State was right for someone like me, whose background was in film studies and political philosophy and had no statistical training since high school. Rather than simply sell the program, Chip seriously entertained the idea that Ohio State could be the wrong place for me and helped me think through the decision I had to make. Looking back, I find this interaction typical of his advising style: He is generous with his time and energy, he is straightforward about what he thinks, and he is not eager to impose his views onto others. As I tried to find my place in this little world of communication research, Chip gave me space to figure things out with just the right amount of nudging to make sure I kept my eyes on the prize. I really enjoyed my time in graduate school and there is no doubt that the positive advising relationship I had was a necessary condition for that. I also had the pleasure of getting to know Dr. Jerry Kosicki in multiple courses, as his research assistant, and in his capacity as committee member. He has been an invaluable source of scientific and institutional knowledge as well as a great sounding board and mentor. I also want to recognize Dr. Mike Slater, who allowed me to take a leadership role in one of my first research collaborations. He always took my ideas seriously, which included asking tough questions, and I am especially grateful that he stuck with me as he transitioned into his new role as Director. And a big thanks to Dr. Chris Browning for joining the committee at such a late stage — my meeting in his office was one of the last times I was ever on campus. iv Besides the members of my committee, I would like to recognize Dr. Kelly Garrett as someone who I have looked up to and helped to teach me to think like a scientist. Another person who I have considered a role model and a particularly valuable source of socialization into the discipline is Dr. Jesse Fox. Likewise, if I had not crossed paths with Dr. Robert Bond, I am not sure whether I would ever have picked up my interest and skills in computational social science. All the aforementioned people also always stood out to me in seminars, colloquia, and so on as particularly insightful and constructive participants who greatly enhance the intellectual atmosphere of the School of Communication. When you know these people are around to evaluate your work, you always bring your A-game. Prior to my arrival in Columbus, I had two important mentors at Rhodes College who were essential to me finding this career path. One is Dr. Rashna Richards, who introduced me to the study of film and was the first to encourage my graduate school aspirations. The other is Dr. Amy Jasperson, who pointed out to me that there was a discipline that fused my interests in politics and media and then led me through a crash course in it. I also must thank Alex Sterne for applying and getting admitted to Ohio State, since I would have neither applied nor enrolled had she not done so. She then put up with me for six years of graduate school, making them the best time of my life (so far). The sacrifices and efforts of my parents, Dave and Peg Long, were of course essential both to my arrival at Ohio State and my continued flourishing once I got there. I thank my brothers Chad and Michael for, among many other things, including their forever-student little brother involved in often-expensive family activities. Thanks to my sister Kim for bringing my mother so much happiness and being v a part of our unconventional family. I thank my brother Josh for telling me not to waste time doing things I don’t enjoy. vi Vita 2010.............................................................................. Pontiac Township High School, Pontiac, IL 2014............................................................... B.A. with Honors, Political Science; Rhodes College 2019................................................................... M.A., Communication; The Ohio State University Publications Long, J. A., & Eveland, W. P., Jr. (2020). Entertainment use and political ideology: Linking worldviews to media content. Communication Research. OnlineFirst. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650218791011 Garrett, R. K., Long, J. A., & Jeong, M. S. (2019). From partisan media to misperception: Affective polarization as mediator. Journal of Communication, 69, 490–517. https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqz028 Long, J. A., Eveland, W. P., Jr., & Slater, M. D. (2019). Partisan media selectivity and partisan identity threat: the role of social and geographic context. Mass Communication and Society, 22, 145–170. https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2018.1504302 Fields of Study Major Field: Communication Graduate Interdisciplinary Specialization in Survey Research vii Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................... iv Vita ................................................................................................................................................ vii List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. x List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ xi Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2. Stability and Reinforcement in