Supplementary material Tob Control Additional Files Contents Additional file 1. Review of tobacco simulation models applied in Low- and Lower Middle-Income Countries ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Search strategy ............................................................................................................................... 2 Inclusion and exclusion criteria ....................................................................................................... 2 Data extraction ............................................................................................................................... 2 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 2 Search results .................................................................................................................................. 2 Additional file 2: Annual percentage increase in excise tax to achieve 70% of retail price being tax by 2025 .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Additional file 3: Epidemiological data and trends for diseases ....................................................... 10 Additional file 4: Model inputs for annual percent changes in cigarette smoking, and prevalence quit for current users ........................................................................................................................ 12 Check for cohort variations ........................................................................................................... 12 Check for model fit for estimating APCs in cigarette smoking ..................................................... 12 Estimating historic (1996 to 2016) proportion quitting by sex by age by year............................. 13 Additional file 5 Model calibration ................................................................................................... 15 Additional file 6: Annual percentage changes for all-cause mortality .............................................. 18 Additional file 7: Formula for current smoking RR ........................................................................... 19 Additional file 8: Coherence checks on epidemiological data from IHME, using DISMOD II ........... 20 Lung cancer ................................................................................................................................... 20 Ischemic heart disease .................................................................................................................. 22 Stroke ............................................................................................................................................ 24 COPD ............................................................................................................................................. 26 Additional file 9: Uncertainty about starting smoking prevalence ................................................... 29 Additional file 10: Disease specific relative risks for smokers versus non-smokers according to age group and sex .................................................................................................................................... 31 1 Singh A, et al. Tob Control 2020; 29:388–397. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054861 Supplementary material Tob Control Additional file 1. Review of tobacco simulation models applied in Low- and Lower Middle-Income Countries Search strategy A search was conducted on Medline using PubMed platform on 22 October 2018 to identify relevant studies without any date or language restrictions and using the following search strategy: (Simulat* [TIAB] OR Markov[TIAB] OR Multistate [TIAB] OR Multi-state [TIAB] OR Levy[au] OR Gartner[au] OR Forecast* [TIAB]) AND (Smoking [TIAB] OR Tobacco use [TIAB] OR Cigarette [TIAB] OR SimSmoke[TIAB]) AND (Filters (filter number 2) for low and lower middle-income countries obtained from https://epoc.cochrane.org/lmic-filters) Inclusion and exclusion criteria Studies on populations from low and lower middle-income countries, defined by World Bank classification, that simulated tobacco control policies for reduction in mortality outcomes with and without measures of morbidity such as HALY/QALY/DALY were eligible for inclusion in the review. Multi-country studies that fulfilled the criterion related to simulation of tobacco control policies for reduction in mortality outcomes and included any low and lower middle-income country were included in the review. No language restrictions were put in place during the search. Studies on populations from upper middle-income nations (such as Thailand, Albania, Brazil, China) were excluded from the review. In addition, studies that only modelled effectiveness of tobacco control policies on prevalence of tobacco use and ignored disease burden and mortality were excluded as their findings are not comparable to other included studies. Data extraction To summarise the existing evidence, we recorded the authors’ details, publication year, base year from which projections are made and the time horizon in which interventions’ effectiveness is modelled. We also extracted information on the type of simulation modelling, whether the studies modelled changes in mortality through tobacco-attributable single disease, multiple diseases or whether directly to all-cause mortality. Additionally, we recorded the tobacco control interventions that were modelled in the selected studies. Finally, we extracted key characteristics of applied simulation models including allowing for future trends in tobacco prevalence as well as whether the models incorporated a time lag from quitting tobacco use to disease risk and consequently mortality. Results Search results A total of 429 articles were retrieved on PubMed through our search. Based on the title and abstract screening, and set inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 12 studies were deemed suitable for data extraction. The summary characteristics of the selected studies are presented chronologically in Table 1. 2 Singh A, et al. Tob Control 2020; 29:388–397. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054861 Supplementary material Tob Control Table 1 Summary characteristics of included studies Study Publ. Base year Country Type of Outcomes Single disease or Modelled through Tobacco control Allowing for future Time lag Year and time modelling all/many tobacco- diseases vs directly policies trends in tobacco from horizon related diseases to all cause modelled prevalence smoking mortality to disease incidence Levy et al.1 2006 Base year Vietnam Markov process Smoking Many Directly to all cause Tax increases, Yes No 2002; Over prevalence mortality clean indoor air a 30 year change and laws, mass period deaths media policies, averted advertising bans/ warning labels and strategies to reduce youth access Higashi et al2 2011 Base year Vietnam Markov process Change in Many Disease models: Excise tax Yes No 1999; 5 (multistate life DALYs & Lung cancer, COPD, increase, graphic year time tables)(BOD associated IHD, CVA, LRTI and warnings, mass horizon models); Separate change in other cancers media campaigns forecast model costs and smoking for BAU smoking bans in prevalence and public/work epidemiological places model for disease and mortality impact 3 Singh A, et al. Tob Control 2020; 29:388–397. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054861 Supplementary material Tob Control Study Publ. Base year Country Type of Outcomes Single disease or Modelled through Tobacco control Allowing for future Time lag Year and time modelling all/many tobacco- diseases vs directly policies trends in tobacco from horizon related diseases to all cause modelled prevalence smoking mortality to disease incidence Pichon-Riviere 2011 Base year: Multiple First order Monte Change in Many Disease models: 1) nicotine Yes Yes et al3 Different Latin Carlo, or QALYs Coronary and replacement or years for American probabilistic noncoronary heart behavioral each countries microsimulation disease, interventions); 2) country; of individual cerebrovascular media campaign) Time subjects disease, COPD, and; 3) training horizon: pneumonia, primary care Lifetime of influenza, lung physicians in the cancer, and nine brief counseling population other neoplasms interventions, including pharmacotherap y in benefit plans). Higashi & 2012 Base year: Vietnam Markov process Change in Many Disease models: Physician brief Yes No Barendregt4 2006, (multistate life DALYs & Ischaemic advice; nicotine Lifetime tables)(BOD associated heart disease (IHD); replacement horizon: models); Separate costs cerebrovascular therapy (NRT) until forecast model accident (CVA); patch; NRT gum; extinct and cancer (lung, mouth bupropion; and epidemiological and oropharynx, varenicline. model oesophagus, pancreas, bladder, stomach); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); and lower respiratory tract infections 4 Singh A, et al. Tob Control 2020; 29:388–397. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054861 Supplementary material Tob Control Study Publ. Base year Country Type of Outcomes Single disease or Modelled through Tobacco control Allowing for future Time lag Year and time modelling all/many tobacco- diseases vs directly policies trends in tobacco from horizon related diseases to all cause modelled prevalence