PRISM VOL. 5, NO. 2 2015 PRISM VOL. 5, NO. 2 5, NO. VOL. 2015 Challenges and Opportunities www.ndu.edu A JOURNAL OF THE CENTER FOR COMPLEX OPERATIONS PRISM Vol. 5, no. 2 2015 About Center for Complex Operations (CCO) CCO Was Established to: PRISM is published by the Center for Complex Operations. PRISM is a security studies journal Editor chartered to inform members of U.S. Federal agencies, allies, and other partners on complex Enhancing the U.S. Government’s Ability to Prepare for ■■ Serve as an information clearinghouse and knowledge Michael Miklaucic and integrated national security operations; reconstruction and state-building; relevant policy Complex Operations manager for complex operations training and education, acting as a central repository for information on areas such and strategy; lessons learned; and developments in training and education to transform CCO, a center within the Institute for National Strategic as training and curricula, training and education provider Contributing Editors America’s security and development Studies at National Defense University, links U.S. Government institutions, complex operations events, and subject David Kilcullen education and training institutions, including related centers matter experts Greg Mills of excellence, lessons learned programs, and academia, to foster unity of effort in reconstruction and stability ■■ Develop a complex operations training and education operations, counterinsurgency, and irregular warfare— community of practice to catalyze innovation and Editorial Assistant Communications collectively called “complex operations.” The Department of development of new knowledge, connect members for Connor Christensen Defense, with support from the State Department and U.S. Constructive comments and contributions are important to us. Direct networking, share existing knowledge, and cultivate Caliegh Hernandez Agency for International Development, established CCO as foundations of trust and habits of collaboration across communications to: Daniel Moore an innovative interagency partnership. the community Giorgio Rajao Editor, PRISM ■■ Serve as a feedback and information conduit to the Of ce 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64, Room 3605) of the Secretary of Defense and broader U.S. Government Copy Editors Fort Lesley J. McNair policy leadership to support guidance and problem-solving Dale Erikson across the community of practice Rebecca Harper Washington, DC 20319 Christoff Luehrs ■■ Enable more effective networking, coordination, and synchronization to support the preparation of Department Nathan White Telephone: (202) 685-3442 of Defense and other U.S. Government personnel for FAX: complex operations Design Director (202) 685-3581 ■■ Support lessons learned processes and best practices Carib Mendez Email: [email protected] compilation in the area of complex operations ■■ Identify education and training gaps in the Department of Advisory Board Defense and other Federal departments and agencies and Dr. Gordon Adams facilitate efforts to ll those gaps. Dr. Pauline H. 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Dr. Moisés Naím The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are MG William L. Nash, USA (Ret.) those of the contributors and do not necessarily re ect the views of the Department Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. Dr. William Reno LtGen John F. Sattler, USMC (Ret.) Dr. James A. Schear Dr. Joanna Spear PRISM wishes to express its gratitude to USAFRICOM for its sponsorship of this Dr. Ruth Wedgwood issue. Publisher Dr. Joseph J. Collins ISSN 2157–0663 FEATURES 2 The Tswalu Dialog by Michael Miklaucic 8 On the State of Peace and Security in Africa www.ndu.edu by Olusegun Obasanjo 14 Emerging Risks and Opportunities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for the American Agenda of Peace and Security, Democracy and Governance, Economic Growth and Development by Jeffrey Herbst & Greg Mills 30 Security Threats Facing Africa and its Capacity to Respond by Paul Collier 42 Shaping Africa’s Peace and Security Partnerships for the 21st Century by Amanda Dory 48 Upcoming Inflection Point by Phillip Carter & Ryan Guard 60 The Recurrent Security Crises in Mali and the Role of the African Union by Pierre Buyoya 72 Dynamics of Conflict Management in the Democratic Republic of the Congo; Malawi and the Force Intervention Brigade by Clement Namangale 84 Somaliland: Where there has been Conflict but no Intervention by Rakiya Omaar & Saeed Mohamoud 94 Lessons from Colombia for Fighting the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria by Afeikhena Jerome 106 The African Development Bank’s Support to Post Conflict States by Sunita Pitamber 116 The Soldier and the Street by Marie Besançon & Stephen Dalzell AUTHOR 2 | FEATURES PRISM 5, NO. 1 The Tswalu Dialog BY MICHAEL MIKLAUCIC “A foutre for the world and worldlings base! I speak of Africa and golden joys.” The Second part of King Henry the Fourth William Shakespeare or centuries Africa has provided the stuff of dreams for explorers, adventurers, conquerors, colonizers, soldiers, plunderers, and state-builders. It has also been the backdrop for the Fnightmares of slavery, famine, war, genocide, and other tragedies. Africa is at once a geo- graphical illusion and a potent political symbol. Its emergence and recent impressive economic growth have altered the geo-strategic calculations of all the global powers. With its abundant natural and human resources generating increasing political and economic capital, Africa’s impor- tance on the global stage will only continue to grow. However this growth will be conditioned by how African states individually and collectively respond to the myriad challenges and opportuni- ties facing the continent. What do we mean by describing Africa as a geographical illusion? Look at the map of Africa: fifty-four states, each distinct and discretely colored to convey the attributes of sovereign identity and equality. Yet the fundamental Westphalian principle of sovereignty is actually challenged throughout Africa as in no other region of the world. Of Africa’s 54 recognized states, how many can actually claim to effectively govern their territory, so as to prevent serious challenges from indigenous security threats? How many effectively govern their borders to control the flow of goods and persons, licit and illicit, in and out of the country? How many can claim that national identity overrides other sub-national identities for the majority of the population? While not implying the legitimacy or illegitimacy of national sovereignty claims, the answer in each case is a small minority of Africa’s countries. The map of Africa has the additional historical handicap of having been drawn not from organic political development as in Europe, but by the hand of Europeans with little concern for or knowledge of the state-building enterprise, leaving many African states with a substantial legitimacy deficit among their populations. Thus the political Michael Miklaucic is the Editor of PRISM PRISM 5, NO. 2 FEATURES | 3 MIKLAUCIC map of Africa conveys the illusion of much continental integration, communication, more sovereignty than is actually present. trade, and transportation are merely a few of A further geographical illusion derives them. from the classic Mercator projection of the As diverse as Africa is, there is nevertheless world and the way Africa is taught in many a continental solidarity borne of the shared places as a single entity. In the Mercator projec- experiences of slavery, colonization and wan- tion, the continent’s actual size is vastly under- ton exploitation. When Libya won its inde- represented. Moreover, it conveys an illusion pendence from Britain in 1951, it became only of integration that underappreciates the radical the fifth independent African state. In the next diversity of Africa. Africa is indeed a single 15 years, 34 more African states achieved inde- continent, but one that, by some counts, is pendence. The Organization of African Unity home to, over 3300 different ethnic groups was established in 1963 (with 32 signatories) and distinct languages. Cultures in Africa vary to promote the unity and solidarity of the widely from region to region, and even within African states, and to speak collectively for regions. They often provide a stronger identity Africa. Nearly every African state is a member for populations than their respective states. of the Non-Aligned Movement, reflecting a While Mauritanians and Mozambicans are shared detachment from the interests of the both Africans, they share little else in com- great powers and