The London School of Economics and Political Science Contestation in Marginalised Spaces: Dynamics of Popular Mobilisation and Demobilisation in Upper Egypt Since 25 January 2011 Yasmine Laveille A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, July 2016 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 98,936 words. Statement of use of third party for editorial help I confirm that parts of my thesis were copy edited for conventions of language, spelling and grammar by Sarah Morris (chapter 4), Robert Norris (chapter 5), Andrew Cleary (chapter 3), Neil Ketchley (part of chapter 6), and Sonia Norris (conclusion). 2 ABSTRACT Why and how do ordinary citizens lacking previous activist experience, come, at certain times, to stage protests, block roads, close public administrations, or occupy public spaces, in order to reclaim what they consider is their right? In Egypt, ordinary people have increasingly, albeit occasionally, endorsed protest as a means to press demands, as shown by a continuous frequency of popular mobilisations despite a very repressive context since July 2013. However, despite the persistence of serious grievances and limited results, most of these collective actions have not exceeded the local scale, remaining dispersed, discontinuous and ephemeral. This thesis argues that beyond repression and other authoritarian constraints, which only provide a partial explanation, most popular mobilisations are also prevented from expanding by the vicissitudes of leadership on the one hand, and a set of local sociocultural features on the other. Beyond traditional social movement studies, which mainly focused on urban and organised movements, this thesis analyses ordinary people’s isolated protests characterised by a basic organisation and a strong local anchorage. Based on fieldwork in southern Upper Egypt between January 2014 and April 2015, it provides an account of recent local dynamics of (de)mobilisation. Focusing on these discontinuous, dispersed and ephemeral forms of activism, it sheds light on the factors that interact in preventing a widening of local collective action. These factors include leaders’ limited ambitions, experience, and difficulties in coordinating in a highly authoritarian environment; activists’ co-optation; local logics of patronage and loyalties; gender, generational and other social divisions; and perceptions of cultural identity. The thesis also establishes that current national campaigns, mainly revolutionary change, labour protests and the pro- Muslim Brotherhood protest movement, do not appeal to the majority due to their lack of alternative political projects and perceived exclusionary character. This ultimately suggests why the beginning of a revolution was suspended. 3 Table of Contents Acknowledgments 10 Notes on transliteration, informants and currency exchange 12 List of commonly used Arabic terms and phrases and Acronyms 13 Introduction: examining the local dynamics of contestation 16 1. Popular mobilisations in Upper Egyptian cities and villages since 2011 16 2. Research questions 22 3. Literature review and location of the thesis 24 4. Research methodology 32 5. Thesis outline 41 Chapter 1: Egyptians’ contentious politics: patterns and trajectories (1967 – 2013) 44 1. Introduction: a long protest tradition 44 2. Contestation under authoritarian conditions (1967 – 1977) 48 2.1. Explaining the relative scarcity of protests under Nasserism 48 2.2. The political and economic crisis and the resumption of popular protests 51 2.3. Ordinary people’s intensifying resistance: the turning point of the 1977 uprising 57 3. The definitive marginalisation of the poor (1977 – 2000) 59 3.1. From discrete resistance to open collective action 61 3.2. Islamist movements’ increasing popularity among the ordinary 64 4. New dynamics of protest (2000 – 2010) 67 5. From the national to the local: the shift of the 25 January uprising (2011 – 2013) 73 5.1. Southern Upper Egypt during the uprising (25 January – 11 February 2011) 74 4 5.2. In the aftermath of the uprising, an unprecedentedly favourable environment facilitates protests in the region (February 2011 – July 2013) 76 6. Conclusion: Upper Egyptians reclaiming their belonging to the national polity 82 Chapter 2: Local leaders, networks and solidarities in the protests against deteriorating public services 85 1. Introduction: examining the local coordination of protests in two case studies 85 2. Al-Hebeil residents’ fight for a football field 87 3. The intervention of local activists combined with the presence of multiple local networks: a more visible mobilisation in Abul Rish 96 4. The choice to protest: a political opportunity or a response to the state’s violation of well-established norms? 105 5. Conclusion: a latent contestation in marginalised spaces 111 Chapter 3: When the tide turns: state strategies of containment and the marginalisation of protests in favour of stability 113 1. Introduction: renewed repression and its implications for mobilisation 113 2. Non-mobilisation, demobilisation, or discontinuous mobilisation? 116 2.1. State strategies to limit mobilisation and demobilise the majority: repressing, delegitimising, co-opting 116 2.2. Mobilising otherwise: forms of activism in time of intensified repression 120 3. Interpreting Upper Egyptians’ large demobilisation or limited mobilisation 123 3.1. Media propaganda and conspiracy theories: framing the Muslim Brotherhood and the revolution as the enemies 123 3.2. Protests threatening stability and Upper Egyptians’ fatigue towards the “revolution” 129 3.3. Local protest movements’ vulnerability to co-optation strategies: the case of a short strike by garbage collectors in Kom Ombo 132 4. A limited mobilisation without challenging the authorities: Nagaa Abdel Qader residents’ fight for drinking water 135 5 5. Conclusion: assessing state strategies to prevent protests’ expansion 143 Chapter 4: The vicissitudes of leadership 145 1. Introduction: leaders’ indispensability 145 2. Local leaders and activist networks 147 2.1. Local activists’ profile 148 2.2. Mobilising, exchanging and building connections 155 3. Leaders’ strategies: focusing on the local or seeking to coordinate at a wider level? 157 3.1. Campaigning in a repressive environment 158 3.2. Trying to comply with the local political culture by providing direct services 161 3.3. Taking part in local or national campaigns 166 3.4. Joining political parties 170 4. Focusing on the local: Lamm al-shaml initiative in Aswan 173 5. Conclusion: Leaders’ limited options 180 Chapter 5: Sociocultural determinants influencing (de)mobilisation: mobilising in Upper Egypt 182 1. Mobilising as an Upper Egyptian 182 2. Being Upper Egyptian 184 3. Loyalty to the clan and tribal solidarities 190 4. Youth and Elders’ respective roles 195 5. Gender divisions and women’s activism 198 6. Conclusion: studying contentious politics in distinct sociocultural contexts 206 Chapter 6: Large protest movements’ failure to gather new constituencies 208 1. Introduction: the decline of street politics and opposition campaigns 208 6 2. The only exception: explaining the success of the nationwide Tamarrod campaign 211 3. The disgrace of the 25 January “revolution” and its activists’ marginalisation 218 4. The weak solidarity with labour protests 227 5. The Muslim Brotherhood’s failure to attract sympathy beyond its core base 230 5.1. Anti-coup protests 230 5.2. Hostility towards the Muslim Brotherhood 242 6. Conclusion: endorsing a perceived safety rather than adventurous Alternatives 248 Conclusion: the legacy of the 25 January uprising 250 1. Explaining discontinuous, dispersed and ephemeral forms of activism 253 2. Mafīsh faīda? 259 2.1. Opportunities for scale shift in authoritarian contexts 259 2.2. Prospects for Egypt 262 Bibliography and other Sources 266 7 Table of Figures Figure 2.1: The building of the Islamic Welfare Association for the Well-being of Al-Hebeil, March 2015 (page) 95 Figure 2.2: The disputed field, Al-Hebeil, March 2015. 95 Figure 2.3: View of the Kima Canal in the area of the public hospital, Aswan, April 2015. 104 Figure 2.4: Nile view where the Kima Canal flows into the river, Aswan, April 2015. 104 Figure 3.1: Poster of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Aswan, 2014. 119 Figure 3.2: Poster displaying Abdel Fattah al-Sisi next to President Nasser, Qena, May 2014. 119 Figure 3.3: Campaign poster saying yes to the 2013 constitution, Aswan, January 2014. 131 Figure 3.4: Posters of the pro-Sisi campaign Mustaqbal Watan displayed in the office of the garbage collectors, Kom Ombo, Aswan governorate, April 2014. 134 Figure 3.5: Young girl on a donkey carrying a jerrican, Nagaa Abdel Qader, Qena governorate, May 2014. 137 Figure 3.6: The village of Al-Hajindiyya, Aswan governorate, February 2014. 144 Figure 4.1: Protesters standing in support for Hamdeen Sabbahi, Aswan, March 2014. 159 Figure 4.2: Meeting of the Lamm al-shaml initiative, Aswan,