DAVID R. MARPLES Ukraine in Conflict An Analytical Chronicle This e-book is provided without charge via free download by E-International Relations (www.E-IR.info). It is not permitted to be sold in electronic format under any circumstances. If you enjoy our free e-books, please consider leaving a small donation to allow us to continue investing in open access publications: http://www.e-ir.info/about/donate/ i Ukraine in Conflict An Analytical Chronicle DAVID R. MARPLES UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA ii E-International Relations www.E-IR.info Bristol, England 2017 ISBN 978-1-910814-29-1 (paperback) ISBN 978-1-910814-30-7 (e-book) This book is published under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 license. You are free to: • Share – copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format • Adapt – remix, transform, and build upon the material Under the following terms: • Attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. • Non-Commercial – You may not use the material for commercial purposes. Any of the above conditions can be waived if you get permission. Please contact [email protected] for any such enquiries, including for licensing and translation requests. Other than the terms noted above, there are no restrictions placed on the use and dissemination of this book for student learning materials/scholarly use. Production: Michael Tang Cover Image: Nomadsoul1 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library iii E-IR Open Access Series Editor: Stephen McGlinchey Editorial Assistance: Janja R. Avgustin and Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska E-IR Open Access is a series of scholarly books presented in a format that preferences brevity and accessibility while retaining academic conventions. Each book is available in print and e-book, and is published under a Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 license. As E-International Relations is committed to open access in the fullest sense, free electronic versions of all of our books, including this one, are available on the E-International Relations website. Find out more at: http://www.e-ir.info/publications About E-International Relations E-International Relations is the world’s leading open access website for students and scholars of international politics, reaching over three million readers per year. E-IR’s daily publications feature expert articles, blogs, reviews and interviews – as well as student learning resources. The website is run by a non-profit organisation based in Bristol, England and staffed by an all-volunteer team of students and scholars. http://www.e-ir.info iv Abstract Through a series of articles written between 2013 and 2017, this book examines Ukraine during its period of conflict – from the protests and uprising of Euromaidan, to the Russian annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in Ukraine’s two eastern provinces Donetsk and Luhansk. It also looks at Ukraine’s response to Russian incursions in the form of Decommunisation – the removal of Lenin statues, Communist symbols, and the imposition of the so-called Memory Laws of the spring of 2015. The book places these events in the context of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, and Ukraine’s geostrategic location between Russia and the European Union. It seeks to provide answers to questions that are too often mired in propaganda and invective and to assess whether the road Ukraine has taken is likely to end in success or failure. About the Author David R. Marples is a Distinguished University Professor of Russian and East European History and currently Chairman of the Department of History and Classics, University of Alberta, Canada. He is the author of fourteen single-authored books, including Our Glorious Past: Lukashenka’s Belarus and the Great Patriotic War (2014), and Heroes and Villains: Creating National History in Contemporary Ukraine (2008). He has published over 100 articles in peer-reviewed journals. He has also co-edited three books on nuclear power and security in the former Soviet Union, contemporary Belarus, and most recently, Ukraine’s Euromaidan: Analyses of a Civil Revolution (Stuttgart: ibidem-Verlag, 2015). v Acknowledgements I owe a debt to a number of people who have helped me in various ways over the past four years when these articles were written. The initial ones appeared on the Stasiuk Blog, part of the Program for the Study of Contemporary Ukraine, Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies, at the University of Alberta. I directed this programme for about ten years between 2004 and 2014, courtesy of CIUS directors Zenon Kohut (2004-June 2014) and Volodymyr Kravchenko (from July 2014). The remainder of the articles appeared on my personal blog, starting from the end of October 2015. I have benefited from the wonderful assistance of my PhD students, and single out particularly Ernest Gyidel and Shona Allison. Ernest’s assistance was provided in part by the Research Initiative on Democratic Reforms in Ukraine (RIDRU) at the University of Alberta, funded by the Kule Institute of Advanced Studies. I am grateful to the leader of the initiative, Olenka Bilash, for her assistance in this regard. Myroslava Uniat, an MA student at the University of Alberta originally from Kyiv, provided me with some insights into events in Ukraine and co-wrote two of the articles. I would like to express my appreciation to Open Democracy Russia for granting permission to reprint the following articles: ‘Ukraine: The View from the West,’ 20 February 2014, https://www. opendemocracy.net/od-russia/david-marples/ukraine-view-from-west ; ‘Igor Strelkov—Moscow Agent or Military Romantic,’ 13 June 2014, https:// www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/david-marples/igor-strelkov-moscow- agent-or-military-romantic; ‘Long live the Donetsk People’s Republic,’ 8 July 2014, https://www. opendemocracy.net/od-russia/david-marples/long-live-donetsk- people%E2%80%99s-republic; ‘The Ukrainian Army is Unprepared for War,’ 6 August 2014, https://www. opendemocracy.net/od-russia/david-marples-myroslava-uniat/ukrainian-army- is-unprepared-for-war; ‘@FuckingPutin,’ 22 August 2014, https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/ david-marples/fuckingputin ‘Poroshenko’s Choices,’ 11 November 2014, https://www.opendemocracy.net/ od-russia/david-marples/poroshenko%27s-choices I am also grateful to one other journal for permission to republish the original article: Krytyka for ‘Volodymyr Viatrovych and Ukraine’s Decommunisation Laws’ (2 May 2015), and especially to my publisher E-International Relations and to Stephen McGlinchey and Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska in particular. vi A number of scholars have helped in various ways, sometimes by organising workshops and conferences, at other times with advice, and lastly in regular discussions about the events discussed in this collection, most often on social networks: Tarik Cyril Amar, William Risch, Serhii Yekelchyk, Oleksandr Melnyk, Serhii Plokhy, Dominique Arel, Andrii Portnov, Rory Finnin, Marta Dyczok, Bohdan Harasymiw, Svitlana Krasynska, Oliver Carroll, Volodymyr Kulyk, Taras Kuzio, and Jared McBride. The opinions expressed are at all times my own, as are any errors herein. David R. Marples Edmonton, Alberta, Canada 23 February 2017 vii TRANSLITERATION AND FOOTNOTES In general I have rendered the transliteration of names based on the nationality of the people in question, thus Viktor Yushchenko (Ukrainian), but Aliaksandr Lukashenka (Belarusian). Russian names end in -iy and Ukrainian names in -ii. I have removed the soft sign throughout. All city and town names of places in Ukraine are in the Ukrainian format. Many of the footnotes are internet links as almost all sources were available online. All footnotes were accessed during the period 1-23 February 2016 and on the odd occasion when the link is no longer available, I have made that clear. I have used subheadings if the articles were over 1,000 words in length. viii Ukraine in Conflict Contents INTRODUCTION 1 1. PROSPECTS FOR ‘PUTINISM’ IN UKRAINE 9 2. UKRAINE’S ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT WITH THE EU: ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISES AND SHARED HYPOCRISIES 13 3. WHAT DO UKRAINIANS WANT? 22 4. EUROMAIDAN: IS THERE AN END GAME? 25 5. THE PEOPLE AND THE OPPOSITION 29 6. ANALYSING EUROMAIDAN FROM THE WEST 33 7. INSIDE THE HEAD OF V.V. PUTIN 37 8. CRIMEA: RECAPPING FIVE MONTHS OF CHANGE IN UKRAINE 41 9. ODESA AND THE ESCALATING WAR 47 10. KING COAL AND THE FUTURE OF THE UKRAINIAN DONBAS 52 11. IGOR STRELKOV: MOSCOW AGENT OR MILITARY ROMANTIC? 57 12. PUTIN’S DWINDLING OPTIONS IN UKRAINE 63 13. LONG LIVE THE DONETSK PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC! 68 14. THE AFTERMATH OF MH-17 72 15. THE UKRAINIAN ARMY IS UNPREPARED FOR WAR 77 16. @FUCKYOUPUTIN 81 17. ASSESSING UKRAINE’S OPTIONS 88 Contents ix 18. PREPARING FOR NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE 92 19. THE SNIPERS’ MASSACRE IN KYIV 97 20. THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLICS CAST THEIR VOTES 101 21. POROSHENKO’S CHOICES AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 106 22. MINSK-2 111 23. ONE YEAR AFTER EUROMAIDAN 115 24. COMPARING MAIDAN 2004 WITH EUROMAIDAN 2014 119 25. ETHNIC AND SOCIAL COMPOSITION OF UKRAINE’S REGIONS AND VOTING PATTERNS 122 26. UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT LEGALISES ‘FIGHTERS FOR INDEPENDENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY’ 131 27. VOLODYMYR VIATROVYCH AND UKRAINE’S DECOMMUNISATION LAWS 134 28. KYIV REVISITED 139 29. WHAT TO DO WITH DONBAS: PHASE 3 143 30. UKRAINE AT 24 147 31. PEACE AT LAST IN UKRAINE? ANALYSING RUSSIAN GOALS 153 32. COMMUNIST HEROES OF UKRAINE 157 33. THE DNR, ‘GRISHA PHILLIPS’, AND SPEAKING THE TRUTH 160 34. RUSSIANS AS TERRORIST VICTIMS 164 35. DECENTRALISATION: PROS, CONS, AND PROSPECTS 169 36. THE ‘IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF RUSSIA’: A RESPONSE TO ALEXANDER J.