NCHRP 08-36 Task 141 Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice NCHRP 08-36, Task 141 Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice RSG The RAND Corporation May 2019 The information contained in this report was prepared as part of NCHRP Project 08-36, Task 141, National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). Special Note: This report IS NOT an official publication of the NCHRP, the Transportation Research Board or the National Academies. i NCHRP 08-36 Task 141 Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice Acknowledgements This study was conducted for the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Standing Committee on Planning, with funding provided through the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 08-36, Research for the AASHTO Standing Committee on Planning. The NCHRP is supported by annual voluntary contributions from the state departments of transportation. Project 08-36 is intended to fund quick response studies on behalf of the Standing Committee on Planning. The report was prepared by RSG, with the RAND Corporation. The work was guided by a technical working group that included: Dr. Xia Jin, Florida International University Eunah Kang, The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Frank Law, California DOT Dr. Jean Opsomer, Colorado State University Michael Petesch, Minnesota DOT Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission Lubna Shoaib, East West Gateway Council of Government Dr. Marcelo Simas, Westat, Inc. The project was managed by Lawrence D. Goldstein, NCHRP Senior Program Officer, with assistance from Dr. Anthony Avery, Senior Program Assistant. Disclaimer The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board or its sponsoring agencies. This report has not been reviewed or accepted by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee or the Governing Board of the National Research Council. ii NCHRP 08-36 Task 141 Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice Table of Contents Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................................................................ ii List of Figures...................................................................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................................................... vii The Purpose of the Project ....................................................................................................................................................... vii A Survey on the State-of-the-Practice ..................................................................................................................................... vii A Review of Literature on the State-of-the-Art ...................................................................................................................... ix Key Gaps Between Modeling Research and Practice ............................................................................................................ ix Recommendations for Trip-based Model Contexts .............................................................................................................. xi Recommendations for Activity-Based Model Contexts ....................................................................................................... xii Recommendations for Future Research................................................................................................................................. xiv CHAPTER 1. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 1 1(a) The Purpose of the Project ............................................................................................................................ 1 1(b) The Structure of the Project and the Report .................................................................................................. 2 1(c) An Overview of Important Modeling Terminology ....................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2. STATE-OF-THE-ART MODELING OF PEDESTRIAN AND BICYCLE DEMAND—A LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 6 2(a) Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 6 2(b) Data ............................................................................................................................................................... 6 2(c) Geographic Specificity ................................................................................................................................... 7 2(d) Model Structure and Responses .................................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER 3. RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ON MPO/DOT PRACTICE IN MODELING WALK AND BIKE TRIPS .............................................................................................. 23 3(a) Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 23 3(b) Overview of the Responding Agencies ........................................................................................................ 23 3(c) Summary of the Survey Responses .............................................................................................................. 26 3(d) In-Depth Follow-Up Interviews .................................................................................................................. 32 iii NCHRP 08-36 Task 141 Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice CHAPTER 4. IMPORTANT GAPS BETWEEN THE STATE-OF-THE-ART AND THE STATE-OF-THE PRACTICE ......................................................................................... 35 4(a) Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 35 4(b) A Summary of the survey and Interviews on the State-of-the-practice ........................................................ 35 4(c) A Summary of Literature on the State-of-the-Art ......................................................................................... 37 4(d) Key Gaps between Modeling Research and PRACTICE ............................................................................ 37 CHAPTER 5. EXAMPLES OF RECENT ADVANCES IN BICYCLE AND PEDESTRIAN TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS USED IN PRACTICE .................................................... 41 5(a) Introduction and context with respect to Nchrp Report 770 ........................................................................ 41 5(b) Use of More Detailed spatial and Network dAta ........................................................................................ 43 5(c) Incorporating land-use effects in mode choice ........................................................................................... 46 5(d) Applying findings from bicycle and pedestrian route choice models ......................................................... 52 5(e) Assigning walk and bike trips to networks .................................................................................................. 64 5(f) Modeling walk and bike access to transit .................................................................................................... 65 5(g) travel SURVEY Data for model estimation and calibration ........................................................................ 67 5(h) travel Data for model VALIDATION .......................................................................................................... 71 CHAPTER 6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADVANCING THE STATE-OF-THE- PRACTICE FOR MODELING WALKING AND CYCLING ........................................... 74 6(a) Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 74 6(b) Recommendations for trip-based model contexts ....................................................................................... 74 6(c) recommendations for Activity-based model contexts .................................................................................. 75 6(d) recommendations for Future research ........................................................................................................ 78 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 80 iv NCHRP 08-36 Task 141 Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2-1: AGE GROUP VARIABLES FOR ADULT NON-WORK TRIP MODE CHOICE, BASED ON NHTS DATA FROM 1995- 2017 ...............................................................................................................................................................................................