REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ----------- ----------- OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ----------------- ----------------- DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL ----------------- ----------------- ONACC www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529 BULLETIN N° 59 Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th October 2020 th 11 October 2020 © NOCC October 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). Production Team (NOCC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (NOCC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, NOCC. ZOUH TEM Isabella, M.Sc. in GIS-Environment and Technical staff, NOCC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, M.Sc. in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography). ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, NOCC. ELON G Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law. I. Introduction This dekadal climate early warning bulletin n°5 9 is done through the exploitation of spatial data collected from major international centres involved in day-to-day climate science, notably: the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Columbia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, USA); AccuWeather (American Weather Forecasting Agency, USA); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); Spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Ocean Surface Temperature (OST) in the Atlantic and Pacific, El-Niño/La Nina episode intensities in the Pacific, rainfall and temperature from local stations. To this end, NOCC would like to express its gratitude to all these international Institutions as well as the DMN for the good will demonstrated in sharing the data. This bulletin highlights the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11th to 20th October 2020. This early warning brief further underscores the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in the different socio-economic development sectors of Cameroon. It also assesses the forecasts made for the previous dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020. This dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 will be characterized by the action of the moisture- bearing monsoon from the South Atlantic Ocean in a South-West-North-Easterly direction In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action throughout the national territory, particularly in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the Forest zone with bimodal rainfall (Centre, South and East regions), the Highlands zone (West and North West regions) and the Mono-modal rainfall forest zone (Littoral and South West regions). II. FORECAST SUMMARY II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of experiencing a large increase in mean maximum temperatures compared to historical averages. They include: - Waza, Kaele, Mindif, Kousseri, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, Makari, Maroua and Mora in the Far North region; - Poli, Pitoa, Dembo, Garoua, Tchollire, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro and Guider in the North region; - Tibati and Ngaoundal in the Adamawa region; - Nkoteng, Ngoro, Obala, Bafia, Yoko and Mbalmayo in the Centre region; - Betare-Oya, Belabo, Ngoyla, and Yokadouma in the East region; - Ambam, in the South region; - Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem, Ekok and Nguti in the South West region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangue, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga in the Littoral region. The following localities have a high probability of registering a decrease in minimum temperatures as compared to the historic mean. They include; - Mora, Maroua, Bogo, Mokolo and Mindif in the Far North region; - Poli, Guider and Touboro in the North region; - Garoua -Boulai in the East region; II.2. For Précipitation A high probability of recording rainfall amounts much higher than historic values recorded for the same period and those recorded in the dekad from 1-10 October 2020 in the following localities: - in the Southern part of the Centre region; - in Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Akom II, Nyabizan, Ambam, Kribi, Sangmélima and Campo in the South region; - in Mundemba, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Kumba, Buea, Tiko and Limbe in the South West region; - in Mouanko in the Littoral region. NB1: This dekad from 11th to 20th October 2020 will be marked by heavy rainfall at Mundemba, Nguti, Mamfe, Buea, Tiko, Limbe and Eyumojock (South West region), Bali, Santa, Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Bamenda and Fundong (North West region), Yabassi, Edea, Douala, Pouma, Penja, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Njombe, Manjo, Ngambe, Loum and Dizangue (Littoral region), with a high and permanent risk of registering cases of flooding in the flood plains and landslides on the hillsides in some of the above-mentioned localities. 2 III. Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th October 2020 1) For precipitations th th NB2: The dekad from 11 to 20 October 2020: will be marked by a significant decrease in rainfall amounts in the Sudano-Sahelian During this period we expect: zone, particularly in the North region. a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone A high probability of recording; - rainfall amounts around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020 in Kousseri, Mora, Maroua, (b) Waza, Bogo, Maga, Mindif and Kaele; below the average in Yagoua in the Far North region; - rainfall amounts below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020 in Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Pitoa, Garoua, Tchollire and Poli in the North region. b) In the Guinean high savannah zone (a) A high probability of recording precipitation quantities below those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020 in Meiganga, Ngaoundere, Banyo, Tibati, Tignere and Mbakaou in the Adamawa region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; - above the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020 in Yaounde; around the average in Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Bafia, Yoko, Monatele and Obala; below the average in Eseka and Ngoro in the Centre region; NB 3: - around the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th This dekad from 11th to 20th October corresponds to: October 2020 in Ngoyla, Yokadouma, Batouri, Bertoua and - the extension of the rainy season in the Guinean High Betare -Oya; below the average in Abong-Mbang, Belabo, Savannah zone (Adamawa region), the High Plateau zone (West Moloundou, Lomie, Mindourou and Garoua Boulai in the Figure 1: Variations in rainfall amounts during the current dekad (b) andcompared North to Westthat recorded regions), during the theMono period-modal October Rainfall 1-10, 2020 Forest (a) zone East region; (Littoral and South West regions) withSource: a generalNOCC, October reduction 2020 in - above the averages recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th rainfall quantities in the Littoral region with the exception of the October 2020 in Akom II, Lolodorf, Ebolowa, Nyabizan, localities of Loum and Melong; Ambam, Kribi, Sangmelima and Campo; around the average - the gradual end of the rainy season in the Sudano Sahelian zone in Djoum and below the average in Zoetele in the South (Far North and North regions); region. - the extension of the long rainy season in the Bimodal Rainfall d) In the high plateaux zone Forest zone (Centre, South and East regions), however A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; characterised by a reduction in rainfall amounts in the Centre - below the average recorded in the dekad from 11th to 20th and East regions and an increase in these rainfall amounts in October 2020 in Benakuma, Ndop, Batibo, Wum, Ndu, certain localities in the South region. Nkambe, Nkun, Bamenda, Kumbo and Nwa in the North West region; NB 4: - below the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th During this period we note a high risk of registering cases of October 2020 in Bazou, Dschang, Batie, Bana, Bangangte floods, land/mud slides due to saturation of soils in high risk and Santchou, Bafang, Bafoussam, Bamendjou, Foumban, zones in the Littoral, South West, North West and West regions. Mbouda, Makam, Foumbot and Tonga in the West region. e) In the mono-modal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording rainfall quantities; -in high abundance compared to the average recorded in the dekad 3 from 1st to 10th October 2020 in the localities of Mundemba, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Kumba, Buea, Tiko and Limbe; around the average recorded in Nguti in the South West region; - in high abundance compared to the average recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th October 2020 in the localities of Mbanga and Melong; around those recorded in the last