Catalogue no. 89-657-X2017001 ISBN 978-0-660-06842-8 Ethnicity, Language and Immigration Thematic Series Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 by René Houle and Jean-Pierre Corbeil Release date: January 25, 2017 How to obtain more information For information about this product or the wide range of services and data available from Statistics Canada, visit our website, www.statcan.gc.ca. You can also contact us by email at [email protected] telephone, from Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., at the following numbers: • Statistical Information Service 1-800-263-1136 • National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1-800-363-7629 • Fax line 1-514-283-9350 Depository Services Program • Inquiries line 1-800-635-7943 • Fax line 1-800-565-7757 Standards of service to the public Standard table symbols Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, The following symbols are used in Statistics Canada reliable and courteous manner. To this end, Statistics Canada has publications: developed standards of service that its employees observe. To . not available for any reference period obtain a copy of these service standards, please contact Statistics .. not available for a specific reference period Canada toll-free at 1-800-263-1136. The service standards are ... not applicable also published on www.statcan.gc.ca under “Contact us” > 0 true zero or a value rounded to zero “Standards of service to the public.” 0s value rounded to 0 (zero) where there is a meaningful distinction between true zero and the value that was rounded p preliminary Note of appreciation r revised Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the of the Statistics Act citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other E use with caution institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information could not F too unreliable to be published be produced without their continued co-operation and goodwill. * significantly different from reference category (p < 0.05) Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada © Minister of Industry, 2017 All rights reserved. Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement. An HTML version is also available. Cette publication est aussi disponible en français. Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 Table of contents List of tables ..............................................................................................................................................................5 List of charts ..............................................................................................................................................................8 Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................................................12 Cautionary note .......................................................................................................................................................13 Highlights ................................................................................................................................................................14 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................17 Chapter 1 Context and methods .............................................................................................................................20 1.1 What projections can and cannot show us ....................................................................................................20 1.2 Previous language projection exercises ........................................................................................................20 1.3 Project what, project whom? Which projected language characteristics? ....................................................21 1.3.1 Language questions used for projection purposes .............................................................................23 1.4 What the Demosim microsimulation model can do .......................................................................................24 1.5 Scenarios analyzed in our study ....................................................................................................................27 Chapter 2 Factors affecting past and recent changes in language groups in Canada ...........................................31 2.1 Fertility ............................................................................................................................................................31 2.2 Intergenerational linguistic continuity .............................................................................................................32 2.3 Population age distribution ............................................................................................................................34 2.4 International immigration ...............................................................................................................................36 2.5 Place of birth and interprovincial migration ...................................................................................................38 2.6 Language transfers ........................................................................................................................................42 2.7 Overview ........................................................................................................................................................44 Chapter 3 Population projections by language group.............................................................................................45 3.1 Recent trends .................................................................................................................................................45 3.2 Canada, Quebec and Canada outside Quebec .............................................................................................49 3.2.1 Mother tongue ......................................................................................................................................49 3.2.2 Language spoken most often at home .................................................................................................53 3.2.3 First official language spoken (FOLS) ...................................................................................................56 3.3 Provinces and territories outside Quebec ......................................................................................................57 3.3.1 English-speaking population ................................................................................................................58 3.3.2 French-speaking population .................................................................................................................60 3.3.3 Non-official-language population .........................................................................................................61 3.4 Areas of contact .............................................................................................................................................62 3.4.1 Montréal census metropolitan area ......................................................................................................63 3.4.2 Ottawa–Gatineau census metropolitan area ........................................................................................67 3.4.3 Ontario’s French-speaking regions (excluding Ottawa) ........................................................................70 3.4.4 New Brunswick .....................................................................................................................................72 3.5 Official-language populations ........................................................................................................................74 3.6 French-language minorities outside Québec .................................................................................................78 3.7 Overview ........................................................................................................................................................79 Statistics Canada – Catalogue no. 89-657-X2016002 3 Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 Chapter 4 The composition of language groups, 2011 to 2036..............................................................................81 4.1 Language groups’ components of population growth ...................................................................................81 4.2 The evolution of age structures ......................................................................................................................83 4.3 Ethnocultural diversity in the official language groups ...................................................................................89 4.4 Language transfers ........................................................................................................................................92 4.5 Overview ........................................................................................................................................................97 Chapter 5 Evolution of the knowledge of official languages and of English–French bilingualism