UCL SSEES Press Briefing New wave of political repression in Belarus Expert briefing 16 July 2020 BACKGROUND elections. While mass protests are banned in Belarus, the government Belarus will hold its presidential election on 9 relaxes restrictions on such mass August 2020. With the emergence of three gatherings during presidential strong opposition figures and a significant campaign seasons. Yet, what may set drop in the popularity of Alexander 2020 apart from the 2010 or 2006 Lukashenko (the sitting president), this elections are the presidential election campaign has already proved to be candidates. The most popular one of the most interesting in the country’s independent candidates, Viktor history. Babariko, Valery Tsepkalo, and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (who is This briefing document provides a summary running instead of her husband, Sergei of the discussion hosted by UCL SSEES on Tikhanovsky – a popular Belarusian 14 July 2020. Three experts assessed the blogger – who was arrested and ongoing crisis and discussed how the West denied registration), are political should react to human rights violations by outsiders who can, thus, appeal to a Lukashenko’s regime. formerly politically-inactive middle- class audience. 2. Recently, however, the regime has BELARUSIAN CONTEXT eliminated Babariko and Tsepkalo Ms Kaciaryna Šmacina – Political Analyst from the presidential race. Perhaps at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic most notably, Viktor Babariko was Studies detained on charges of alleged tax evasion. His colleagues from KEY POINT The recent wave of political Belgazprombank, owned by Russia's repression in Belarus is not a particularly new Gazprom, have also been subjected to phenomenon. The country is tangled in a repression and arrest. Valery Tsepkalo vicious cycle of unfair elections, protests, and was disqualified from the race by the violent suppressions. Central Electoral Committee. 1. It is largely incorrect to call the current 3. Given that similar protests in the past events unprecedented. In fact, Belarus have not provoked any decisive often finds itself in a “vicious cycle” of measures by the international pro-democratic protests and their community, we should remain violent suppression before presidential reasonably sceptical in our expectation Page 1 of 3 UCL SSEES Press Briefing of the Western response this year. 3. Ironically, the West has been trying to While there could be some sanctions build linkage and leverage with and criticism of Lukashenko’s conduct, Belarus since sanctions were last lifted we can speculate that Belarus can in 2016. As this process is only later ease the international pressure beginning, sanctions would have a through cooperation. limited effect and could push Belarus to increase trade with Russia. Such measures could also have a negative STRATEGIC CALCULATION effect on the country’s developing IT Andrew Wilson, Professor of Ukrainian industry that relies on Western Studies, UCL SSEES markets, as well as on ordinary Belarusians. Since the war in Ukraine KEY POINT Lukashenko’s regime failed to began in 2014, the West has been pre-empt the ongoing crisis due to multiple quietly supporting Belarusian miscalculations. The West faces a dilemma: sovereignty. This will be more difficult repressions justify sanctions, but an isolated to sustain under a sanctions regime. Belarus will be more vulnerable to Russian Nevertheless, the scale of repression influence. justifies a response. 1. The late Vitali Silitski liked to call Belarus an example of “pre-emptive UK RESPONSE authoritarianism” – the authorities aim Mr Stewart McDonald – Member of to nip any challenge to their power in Parliament and member of the House of the bud. Yet, this election cycle, Commons Foreign Affairs Select Lukashenko underestimated the Committee impact of recent changes within Belarus. The carefully managed KEY POINT Unfortunately, Belarus is not a election formula of past years that set popular subject within British political circles. fake candidates up against real Yet, with enough political will, the UK could opposition leaders no longer works in influence the situation in the country through 2020. Or, with all but one of the major imposing direct sanctions on regime challengers now excluded, we have representatives or providing asylum to ended up with this scenario, but it is Belarusian dissidents. much less credible. At the same time, the dissatisfaction with Lukashenko’s 1. The UK has a lot on its plate right now: regime has risen, both amongst his from Brexit to the Hong Kong crisis, “constituency” – working-class the Foreign Office has other priorities Belarusians – and the middle class. aside from the Belarusian question. And Belarus has never been 2. The roots of the current protest can be particularly popular amongst the British traced back to the 2017 protests over political elites. Both of these factors, the ill-judged “parasite tax” and the unfortunately, mean that the question idea of “two Belaruses”. The blogger of the 2020 presidential election is not Sergei Tikhanovsky represented the getting as much attention as it regional “left behind” Belarus; deserves. Tsepkalo and Babariko the emerging new economy. While there are also 2. There are, however, two main ways in speculations over Russia’s external which the UK could influence the threat to the regime, we cannot ongoing crisis in the country. First, reasonably confirm such allegations. Britain can impose individual sanctions on any Belarusian officials responsible for the ongoing wave of repressions. Page 2 of 3 UCL SSEES Press Briefing The UK could also support such POST-EVENT DEVELOPMENTS targeted sanctions through revoking the British citizenship of those On the day of the event (14 July), Belarus’ Belarusian officials responsible for Central Election Commission approved the repression who currently hold British bids of five presidential candidates: Andrei passports. Second, the UK could open Dmitriev, Anna Kanopatskaya, Aleksandr its borders to Belarusian dissidents Lukashenko, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and whose rights have been violated by the Sergei Cherechen, thus barring Viktor government. The 700 imprisoned Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo from running. activists could thereby find refuge from political oppression in the United Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has, therefore, Kingdom. While this move may go become the opposition frontrunner. against the current administration’s position on migration, it would support On 16 July, the campaign teams of Babariko democratic voices within Belarus. and Tsepkalo announced that they endorse the candidacy of Tikhanovskaya and offer her 3. Our most important objective at the their full support. They also urged their moment must be raising awareness of supporters to take part in the election and the ongoing wave of political register as observers to limit falsifications. repression in the country. It is important to put the country on the parliamentary agenda and promote active discussion of its issues. FURTHER Dr Ben Noble | Lecturer in Russian Politics | UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies INFORMATION Email: [email protected] Page 3 of 3 .