MVM Paks II. Zrt. Environmental Impact Study Implementation of New Nuclear Power Plant units at the Paks site Social – economic impacts SOCIAL - ECONOMIC IMPACTS File name: PAKSII_KHT_9_Tarsgazd_EN 1/100 MVM Paks II. Zrt. Environmental Impact Study Implementation of New Nuclear Power Plant units at the Paks site Social – economic impacts File name: PAKSII_KHT_9_Tarsgazd_EN 2/100 MVM Paks II. Zrt. Environmental Impact Study Implementation of New Nuclear Power Plant units at the Paks site Social – economic impacts TABLE OF CONTENTS 9 SOCIAL-ECONOMIC IMPACTS ............................................................................................................. 7 9.1 Urban, rural and spatial development study of the studied area within a 30 km radius ................. 7 9.1.1 National Spatial development plan (OTrT) ......................................................................................7 9.1.2 County spatial development plans .............................................................................................. 10 9.1.2.1 Settlement structure ............................................................................................................................ 15 9.1.2.2 Cultural heritage protection .................................................................................................................. 18 9.1.2.2.1 Building under protection of monuments on the study area ................................................................ 20 9.1.3 Paks City Local Building Regulation - Regulatory plan .................................................................. 23 9.1.4 Paks long term city development concept– Settlement structural plan ............................................ 26 9.2 Economic profile of the region within a 30 km radius .............................................................. 31 9.2.1 Industry .................................................................................................................................... 31 9.2.1.1 Tolna county - characteristic economic indicators................................................................................... 31 9.2.1.2 Bács-Kiskun county - characteristic economic indicators ......................................................................... 32 9.2.2 Agriculture ................................................................................................................................ 33 9.2.2.1 Requirements of the agricultural region in the county settlement plans ..................................................... 33 9.2.2.2 Arable lands with excellent production capacity ..................................................................................... 34 9.2.2.3 Agriculture in areas that belong to Tolna county ..................................................................................... 37 9.2.2.4 Agriculture in areas that belong to Bács-Kiskun county ........................................................................... 37 9.2.3 Water use ................................................................................................................................. 38 9.2.3.1 Requirements of water management region in the county settlement plans .............................................. 38 9.2.3.2 Surface waters ................................................................................................................................... 38 9.2.3.3 Underground waters ........................................................................................................................... 41 9.2.3.4 Inland inundation ................................................................................................................................ 44 9.3 Transportation routes of the region of study within a 30 km radius ........................................... 46 9.3.1 Road network ........................................................................................................................... 46 9.3.2 Railway network ........................................................................................................................ 47 9.3.3 Waterways, ports ...................................................................................................................... 47 9.3.4 Airports .................................................................................................................................... 48 9.4 Land use in the region of study within a 30 km radius - area structure ...................................... 48 9.5 Spatial development concepts, programs .............................................................................. 55 9.5.1 National Spatial development Concept ........................................................................................ 55 9.5.1.1 National Development Plan II. – New Hungary Development Plan ........................................................... 57 9.5.2 Operational Programmes ........................................................................................................... 58 9.5.2.1 South-Transdanubian Operational Programme (DDOP) 2007-2013 ......................................................... 58 9.5.2.2 South-Great Plain Operational Programme (DAOP) 2007-2013 ............................................................... 59 9.5.3 Danube Complex Program ......................................................................................................... 59 9.5.4 Danube Region Strategy ............................................................................................................ 60 9.6 Profile of population living within a 30 km radius in the region ................................................. 61 9.6.1 Settlements located in the study area .......................................................................................... 61 9.6.2 Distribution and demographic data of the population ..................................................................... 61 9.6.2.1 Demographic characteristics ................................................................................................................ 61 9.6.2.2 Resident population broken down by gender – in 2012 ........................................................................... 64 9.6.2.3 Residential population broken down by age group on January 1, 2012 ..................................................... 65 9.6.2.3.1 Total residential population broken down by age group on January 1, 2012 ........................................ 65 9.6.2.3.2 Population broken down by gender age groups on January 1, 2012 ................................................... 66 9.6.2.3.3 Summary gender profile broken down by age group ......................................................................... 68 File name: PAKSII_KHT_9_Tarsgazd_EN 3/100 MVM Paks II. Zrt. Environmental Impact Study Implementation of New Nuclear Power Plant units at the Paks site Social – economic impacts 9.6.3 Paks region demographic study - 1990-2120 ............................................................................... 68 9.6.4 Key characteristics of population and demographic processes ...................................................... 69 9.6.4.1 Demographic transitions ...................................................................................................................... 70 9.6.4.2 Demographic changes in 1990 and 2000 .............................................................................................. 71 9.6.4.3 Demographic profile of Paks region from 1990....................................................................................... 74 9.6.4.3.1 Fertility profile ............................................................................................................................... 74 9.6.4.3.2 Mortality profile ............................................................................................................................. 75 9.6.4.3.3 Migration, natural and actual reproduction ....................................................................................... 77 9.6.4.3.4 Age structure of the population ....................................................................................................... 78 9.6.5 Methods, input data and hypotheses for forward-looking calculation of population ........................... 80 9.6.5.1 Forward-looking calculation of local population in Hungary...................................................................... 80 9.6.5.1.1 Input data for -forward-looking calculation of population .................................................................... 81 9.6.5.1.2 Hypotheses for forward-looking calculation of population .................................................................. 81 9.6.5.2 Population-forward-looking calculation versions ..................................................................................... 85 9.6.5.3 Calculation method for forward-looking calculation of population ............................................................. 85 9.6.5.4 Forward-looking calculation of residential population in Paks region ........................................................ 87 9.6.5.4.1 Number of residential population .................................................................................................... 87 9.6.5.4.2 Fertility profile ..............................................................................................................................