EVENT REPORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. MULTINATIONAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIALOGUE ISAF Troop Withdrawal from Afghani- LUIS BLANCO stan in 2014 and the Emerging Secu- February 2014 rity Challenges for Neighbouring Cen- tral Asian States www.kas.de/mned-bruessel/ Introduction attended by other Central Asian Ambassa- dors, diplomatic staff, representatives from Amid NATO’s decision to complete the troop the European External Action Service and withdrawal from Afghanistan in December NATO, and think-tank experts. The present 2014 and in the context of presidential elec- report will address the main topics of dis- tions, the central Asian region faces a pe- cussion during the event: Afghanistan and riod of apprehension. Afghanistan is not ISAF withdrawal, the EU Strategy to Central completely stabilized. But Hamid Karzai has Asia, and challenges for the promotion of been able to hold together an intricate po- stability in the region. litical system which allows the central gov- ernment to function and consolidate institu- Afghanistan and ISAF withdrawal tional governance. His replacement may be- come a challenge for the maintenance of In June 2013, Afghan national forces political stability in the country. The with- started to take control of the security of the drawal from NATO-ISAF (International Se- country. Today Afghan National Security curity Assistance Force) troops and its re- Forces sum more than 350,000 security placement by Afghan National Security agents including members of the Afghan Forces in a moment in which Taliban groups National Army, the Afghan National Police continue to be active outside Kabul and and the Afghan Air Force. Areas which some several provinces of the country also con- years ago were beyond control of the cen- tributes to the feelings of uncertainty tral government in Kabul, like passage cor- shared by neighbouring countries. Countries ridors connecting Tajikistan and Afghani- like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan expressed stan, are now controlled and secured by na- officially their concerns to the 68th UN Gen- tional forces. The country is definitely not eral Assembly in September 2013, warning where it was ten years ago. Nevertheless about the worrying regional and security some uncertainty remains regarding the ca- threats associated with the post-2014 sce- pacity of Afghan National Forces to cope nario in Afghanistan. with a still much alive Taliban insurgency after the completion of ISAF withdrawal. In this context, the Multinational Develop- The European EUPOL’s Mission supporting ment Policy Dialogue of Konrad-Adenauer- the implementation of the National Policy Stiftung organised in Brussels on 27th No- Strategy has a mandate until the end of vember 2013 an expert dinner roundtable 2014. But it seems likely that the mission entitled ‘ISAF Troop Withdrawal from Af- will remain necessary and will probably be ghanistan in 2014 and the Emerging Secu- extended beyond that date. Hamid Karzai’s rity Challenges for Neighbouring Central government has been able to establish a Asian States’. The event counted with the degree of political stability in the country keynote speech of H.E. Ambassador Patricia and provide capability to sustain a fragile Flor, European Union Special Representative process of institutional governance. How- for Central Asia, and with the speech of H.E. ever, the security environment in the coun- Ambassador Homayoun Tandar, Afghan try is far from being stabilized. The central Ambassador to the EU. The event was also government is not in total control of its ter- 2 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. ritory. Afghan National Forces have been Asia was launched. With this initiative, the suffering attacks on a much regular basis EU intends to promote the development of MULTINATIONAL and the number of military casualties has economic linkages through the construction DEVELOPMENT POLICY been increasing. There is still much work to of pipelines, roads, energy lines, and thus DIALOGUE be done and the presidential elections to contribute to the economic growth of the LUIS BLANCO scheduled for April 2014 bring more uncer- region. Moreover, it aims to prevent the tainty to the present political context in the growth of politico-religious radicalization, February 2014 region. Hamid Karzai is not eligible for an- foster minority integration and improve the www.kas.de/mned-bruessel/ other mandate and so far none of the 11 climate for private investment in the coun- candidates stands out as a certain winner. A tries that compose the region. It is a dual second round will probably be necessary strategy that approaches development and and it is currently impossible to say if the security in Central Asia in a comprehensive new Afghan president will have the political away. capabilities to keep the country stable, managing the intricate system of political Challenges for the promotion of stabil- loyalties necessary to hold the country to- ity in the region gether. The Taliban will certainly try to use the period of elections to create more insta- Central Asia has its own security problems bility in the country and challenge the associated with the lack of good govern- power of the central government. It will be ance, which affects to a lower or higher ex- an important test for Afghan National Forces tent all the countries of the region. Organ- to show that they have the necessary capa- ized crime and radicalism are and will re- bilities to replace ISAF and to provide conti- main important challenges in the near fu- nuity in the stabilisation process of the ture. In this context, destabilisation in the country. immediate neighbourhood would only lead to an even more dangerous scenario for The European Union Strategy to Central Central Asia. The next developments in Af- Asia ghanistan thus play a fundamental role for the future of the region. The EU has expressed its desire to establish a long term commitment towards the stabi- The current scenario is extremely complex. lisation and economic and social develop- Several actors have a key role in the region ment of the Central Asia region. In this con- and may have the capability to influence the text, the European Council adopted in June impact that the ISAF-NATO troop with- 2007 the document ‘The EU and Central drawal from Afghanistan may have on Cen- Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership’. Since tral Asia. One of them is Pakistan. This then, the EU has been increasing its en- country is an essential piece in the puzzle of gagement with the region in areas like edu- Afghanistan’s future. Fortunately the Paki- cation, energy and transport, trade and stani leadership is aware of that and is con- economic relations, and has increasing its scious that a deterioration of the fragile sta- development assistance to the Central Asian bility that has been achieved in neighbour- space. The strategic engagement with the ing Afghanistan in the last years might gen- Central Asian region is not recent. For ex- erate difficult consequences for the gov- ample, since 2002 the EU has been cooper- ernment in Islamabad. The Pakistani au- ating with the region through the Border thorities seem eager to confirm that the Management Programme in Central Asia NATO-ISAF withdrawal will not be translated (BOMCA), an initiative that aims at sharing into a weaker commitment of Western pow- the European expertise in Integrated Border ers to the maintenance of stability in the Management (IBM) with Central Asian coun- region and would be willing to collaborate tries. More recently, the EU has been with external actors under some conditions strengthening its efforts to develop a coop- to avoid a crisis in the region. However, the erative strategy that addresses the security commitment of other key regional actors is and development nexus. In June 2013, a also necessary. Countries like Turkey, Iran High Level Security Dialogue with Central and Russia may prove essential in this tran- 2 3 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. sitional period in Afghanistan. They have However, Afghanistan will remain in need of the capacity to influence any situation re- external support. Cooperation with partners MULTINATIONAL sulting from the finalization of the NATO- cannot be unidirectional and should not fo- DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISAF mission. These key players are not cus exclusively on security. A dual strategy DIALOGUE only relevant for the future of Afghanistan merging security and development support LUIS BLANCO but also for the promotion of security and is necessary for a long-term stabilisation of social and economic linkages between South Afghanistan. This will also imply strengthen- February 2014 and Central Asia. ing economic and social linkages with www.kas.de/mned-bruessel/ neighbouring countries of South and Central In addition, NATO and other Western actors Asia. There are resources available from the like the EU must be aware of the responsi- World Bank, Asian Development Bank, the bility that they bear in Afghanistan. EU, and other sources, for the promotion of Whereas the NATO-ISAF troop withdrawal is infrastructure and investment in the country a reality, the continuity of the engagement and in the region. It is essential that they with the country is essential. Afghan’s sov- create a secure and stable environment in ereignty and right to decide the extent of order to harvest the fruits of development this collaboration must be respected but it is efforts expected by the international com- evident that the country needs Western munity and, especially, by the Afghan peo- support during the further process of con- ple. solidation of institutional governance that will take place in the years ahead. 2014 will NATO-ISAF troop withdrawal from Afghani- present major political challenges to Af- stan is a sensitive issue and presents some ghanistan. It is of everyone’s interest that risks for Central Asia. Nevertheless, as long what has been achieved so far may not be as NATO, the EU and other relevant regional lost.