This issue brought to you by 2020 House Ratings Toss-Up (2R, 7D) GA 7 (Open; Woodall, R) NY 11 (Rose, D) IA 3 (Axne, D) NY 22 (Brindisi, D) IL 13 (Davis, R) OK 5 (Horn, D) IL 14 (Underwood, D) SC 1 (Cunningham, D) FEBRUARY 7, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 3 UT 4 (McAdams, D) Tilt Democratic (10D) Tilt Republican (7R) CA 21 (Cox, D) IA 4 (King, R) Indiana 5: Ready to Run GA 6 (McBath, D) MN 1 (Hagedorn, R) IA 1 (Finkenauer, D) NJ 2 (Van Drew, R) By Nathan L. Gonzales IA 2 (Open; Loebsack, D) PA 1 (Fitzpatrck, R) ME 2 (Golden, D) PA 10 (Perry, R) Indiana’s 5th District isn’t at the top of Democrats’ takeover target list, MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) TX 22 (Open; Olson, R) but the race is a good barometer for at least two key trends: the blue shift NJ 3 (Kim, D) TX 24 (Open; Marchant, R) in the suburbs and the challenge for House Republicans to even maintain NM 2 (Torres Small, D) GOP DEM their small number of women on Capitol Hill. NY 19 (Delgado, D) 116th Congress 200 234 Even though Donald Trump won the 5th in 2016, Democrats took VA 7 (Spanberger, D) Currently Solid 169 196 aim at the seat two years later because it contains some of Indianapolis’s Competitive 31 38 northside suburbs. GOP Rep. Susan Brooks won re-election by 14 points Needed for majority 218 in 2018, but her subsequent retirement creates an open seat, and a potential headache for her party if Republicans don’t nominate someone Lean Democratic (8D, 1R) Lean Republican (7R, 1I) who is acceptable to a broad base of voters. CA 48 (Rouda, D) MI 3 (Amash, I) Brooks’ departure also threatens the number of Republican women KS 3 (Davids, D) MO 2 (Wagner, R) in the House because she’s one of just 13 currently serving. And based MI 8 (Slotkin, D) NC 9 (Bishop, R) on the initial handicapping, it looks like even if Republicans hold the NJ 7 (Malinowski, D) NE 2 (Bacon, R) district, it’s most likely to be with a man, in part because of multiple, NV 3 (Lee, D) NY 2 (Open; King, R) credible female contenders. TX 7 (Fletcher, D) NY 24 (Katko, R) The race should be a bellwether to see if the bottom has fallen out for TX 23 (Open; Hurd, R) OH 1 (Chabot, R) the Republicans on Election Night. TX 32 (Allred, D) TX 31 (Carter, R) VA 2 (Luria, D) The Lay of the Land Likely Democratic (13D, 2R) Likely Republican (12R) Indiana’s 5th District sits north of Indianapolis and includes Carmel, AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D) PA 17 (Lamb, D) AZ 6 (Schweikert, R) Anderson, Noblesville, Fishers, Marion, Westfield, and Zionsville. It’s the AZ 2 (Kirkpatrick, D) WI 3 (Kind, D) IN 5 (Open; Brooks, R) wealthiest district in the state with a mixture of wealthier suburbs, blue- CA 10 (Harder, D) KY 6 (Barr, R) collar cities and rural areas. At the presidential level, Trump won the district 53-41 percent in CA 39 (Cisneros. D) MI 6 (Upton, R) 2016, Mitt Romney carried it 58-41 percent in 2012, and John McCain CA 45 (Porter, D) MN 8 (Stauber, R) won it 53-47 percent in 2008, according to Daily Kos Elections. But those IL 6 (Casten, D) NC 8 (Hudson, R) results haven’t deterred Democrats, who believe the demographics of the NH 1 (Pappas, D) NY 1 (Zeldin, R) district are trending in their direction. MI 11 (Stevens, D) OH 12 (Balderson, R) Democrats are most encouraged by the 2012 and 2018 Senate results MN 2 (Craig, DFL) TX2 (Crenshaw, R) in which Democrat Joe Donnelly carried the 5th District both times (even NC 2 (Open; Holding, R) TX 10 (McCaul, R) though he lost re-election statewide last cycle). NC 6 (Open; Walker, R) TX 21 (Roy, R) Brooks was first elected in 2012 in a newly-drawn district that was NJ 11 (Sherrill, D) WA 3 (Herrera-Beutler, R) partially represented by longtime GOP Rep. Dan Burton, who decided PA 8 (Cartwright, D) not to seek re-election. Brooks, a former U.S. attorney who also headed # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans Takeovers in Italics Continued on page 5 InsideElections.com Presidential Battlegrounds: Pennsylvania By Ryan Matsumoto While Hillary Clinton’s campaign has often been criticized for ignoring Wisconsin and Michigan, the reality is that even if she had won those Candidate Conversation two states, she still would have lost because of Pennsylvania, where she campaigned heavily. As Democrats strategize about how they can Chris Bubser (D) reassemble the ‘Blue Wall’, Pennsylvania will be at the top of their list. California’s 8th District — Pennsylvania in Recent Elections Rating: Solid Republican Pennsylvania has been shifting slightly to the right at the presidential Interview Date: Jan. 27, 2020 level recently. In 2008, President Barack Obama carried the state by 10 Date of Birth: June 30, 1964; percentage points while winning nationally by 7 percentage points. Pottsville, Pa. In 2012, he won Pennsylvania by a 5 percentage-point margin while Education: winning nationally by 4 percentage points. In 2016, Pennsylvania took a Lehigh Univ. (1986), UCLA (MBA, 1993) turn to the right, voting for Trump by 1 percentage point while Clinton won the national popular vote by 2 percentage points. Elected Office: None; First run Put another way, Pennsylvania was 3 percentage points more Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom for office Democratic than the nation in 2008, 2 percentage points more Democratic Current Outlook: Bubser is the top Democratic candidate in an than the nation in 2012, and 3 percentage points more Republican than expansive California district that includes the High Desert and northern the nation in 2016. The driving force behind Pennsylvania’s big shift in San Bernardino County and that Donald Trump carried by 15 points in 2016 was Trump’s strength with white voters without a college degree, 2016. Her first hurdle is to finish in the top two in the March 3 primary, who make up about 56 percent of the state’s eligible voters according to then she would be an underdog in November. The seat is open because Daily Kos Elections. GOP Rep. Paul Cook is not seeking re-election. Despite its turn to the right at the presidential level, Pennsylvania has Evaluation: Both parties need more Chris Bubsers. The engineer and leaned Democratic when you include downballot elections. The Inside biotech consultant is a credible candidate putting together a serious Elections Baseline score, which measures average partisan performance campaign while running against significant partisan odds. She’s in Pennsylvania over the past four election cycles, is 52 percent not likely to win, but if the GOP candidate implodes or the national Democratic and 45.5 percent Republican. environment shifts dramatically toward Democrats, Bubser will be in place to take advantage of an unexpected opportunity. The challenge for both parties is finding quality candidates willing to take a risk in The Philadelphia Metro Area long-shot races. In our interview, Bubser was earnest and personable Philadelphia is the heart of the Democratic base in Pennsylvania. and weaved healthcare policy into personal stories about her friend It is the largest county by population and has voted Democratic in with breast cancer and her daughter with epilepsy. Executing her path every presidential election since 1932. According to Census Estimates, to victory is more challenging than she laid out, but she’ll likely force Philadelphia is 44 percent Black, 34 percent Non-Hispanic white, 15 Republicans to pay some attention to what should be an easy victory. percent Hispanic or Latino, 8 percent Asian, 1 percent American Indian / Alaska Native, and 3 percent two or more races. In the 2016 presidential election, it voted for Hillary Clinton 82-15 percent. CALENDAR While Democrats can partially blame Clinton’s Michigan loss on Feb. 11 New Hampshire Primary a large turnout drop in Wayne County (Detroit), that wasn’t the case Feb. 22 Nevada Caucuses for Pennsylvania with Philadelphia. Clinton won 584,025 votes in Feb. 29 South Carolina Primary Philadelphia in 2016, roughly on par with Obama’s 588,806 votes in Continued on page 3 March 3 Super Tuesday (14 states) Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor @InsideElections [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections InsideElections.com Ryan Matsumoto Contributing Analyst [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Editor & Publisher Robert Yoon Will Taylor Copyright 2020, [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist Inside Elections LLC. [email protected] [email protected] All rights reserved. @nathanlgonzales 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 2 February 7, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH CALENDAR July 30-31 Democratic Presidential Debates (Detroit, Mich.) Oct. 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Aug. 6 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Nov. 5 Mississippi and Kentucky Gubernatorial General Elections Aug. 27 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Runoff Nov. 16 Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election Sept. 10 North Carolina’s 3rd & 9th District Special General Elections Dec. 2 Illinois Candidate Filing Deadline Sept. 12-13 Democratic Presidential Debates Dec. 9 Texas Candidate Filing Deadline Continued from page 2 The Obama-Trump Vote 2012. Trump outperformed Romney slightly (108,748 votes to 96,467 The gains that Clinton made in the Philadelphia suburbs were not, votes), mostly due to his strength with white working class voters in however, representative of the state as a whole. Clinton improved on northeast Philadelphia. Of course, Democrats would benefit if turnout in Obama’s margins in only six Pennsylvania counties, while Trump Philadelphia was even stronger in 2020.