Background Global Strategic Trends Programme is a comprehensive view of the future produced by a research team at the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC). This regional survey, South Asia out to 2040, is part of the suite of publications within this programme. Conditions of release DCDC have produced the findings within this regional survey, South Asia out to 2040. It does not represent an official position of Her Majesty’s Government or the Ministry of Defence information is, however, ©crown copyright, unless otherwise stated. Departmental direction Global Strategic Trends Programme examines the strategic context that faces defence as well as the challenges and opportunities it provides for the MOD. We have been directed by the MOD to stress the need for an integrated approach. DCDC’s Strategic Trends Programme aims to provide a detailed analysis of the future strategic context for defence out to 2040. This will be an essential input into policy and concept development. Major outputs include: trends-based analysis of the future strategic context analysing alternative futures, key risks and shocks, including an assessment of their probability, frequency and magnitude identifying how shocks might impact on the future strategic context identifying broad defence and security implications. Foreword The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) Global Strategic Trends Programme analyses the future strategic context. Global Strategic Trends out to 2040, published in 2010, highlighted defence and security trends that informed both the National Security Strategy and the Strategic Defence and Security Review. The pattern of publication will continue, aligned to the 5-year Defence review cycle. This particular publication is a regional study, which along with others, forms an ongoing body of evidence to inform the higher-level analysis. A key deduction from the 2010 Global Strategic Trends out to 2040 was that over the next 30 years Western dominance of international affairs is likely to reduce as economic and military power become more evenly distributed. The West’s strategic relationship with South Asia will be important. Some argue that such aspects of globalisation are nothing new. They may be technically correct, but the character of it has changed. The reach of international trade and services, the sheer velocity of information, and the inescapable security implications of climate change, for example, are increasingly binding together the security of nations. This South Asia out to 2040 regional survey uses the Global Strategic Trends Programme methodology to identify key security drivers. It identifies two key themes. The first is the changing geopolitical balance and the most likely future international context, with China and India as key players. The second explores the challenges arising from the rise of South Asian powers. Having established where South Asia is going, and how it might get there, the study then considers what the potential implications might be for defence and security. We will develop these more fully in the next iteration of the Changing Character of Conflict study. The definition of South Asia for this survey highlights the significance of two obvious poles of power: China and India. The research confirms that the critical path for the whole region is defined by their future development. All the South Asian economies will be affected, to some degree, by the performance of the Chinese and Indian economies and how they interact with India and China. This study notes that China and India will likely endure as significant economic, political, cultural and military actors. One of the strengths of the Strategic Trends Programme is its independence enabling it more easily to remain distant from, but aware of, current policy. This helps it to be objective. Inevitably, the findings in South Asia out to 2040 may challenge some perceptions, but I commend them to you. Only by thinking about the future can we be prepared for the future. P J Thicknesse Commodore Head Futures and Maritime, Development Concept and Doctrine Centre October 2012 1 South Asia out to 2040 Contents Foreword 1 Contents 2 Introduction 3 Executive summary 8 Global implications for defence and security 16 UK implications for defence and security 21 Part 1 Analysis Key theme 1 The international context: South Asia in 2040 28 Five scenarios for China’s status in 2040 28 The ‘G3’ (China, India and US) 35 The EU and the possibility of a ‘G4’ 44 Increasing significance of the other South Asian states 45 South Asia relationship with the rest of the world 53 Existing international intuitions – UN, International Monetary 57 Fund and the World Trade Organisation South Asia and the global commons 57 Key theme 2 The challenge of transformation 61 Part 2 Key trends and drivers Social dimension 82 Economic dimension 91 Science and technology dimension 95 Environmental dimension 103 Sources and acknowledgments 108 2 Introduction South Asia out to 2040 is the latest in a series of the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) regional surveys that have considered areas such as the Arctic, Europe and the South Atlantic. The Ministry of Defence (International Planning and Policy Section) commissioned this survey and it takes forward the research that underpins Global Strategic Trends – out to 2040. It also highlights the current trends and drivers identified by the continuous process of horizon scanning undertaken at DCDC. The survey informs decision makers about likely developments in the region, and focuses on the potential defence and security implications. The findings from this document will inform the next edition of Global Strategic Trends (GST) which is due for publication in 2014. For the purposes of this survey, we have geographically defined South Asia to include: Pakistan, China, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. See Figure 1. China n ta is ak P B h N u epal ta B n a n g India la d e s h Tropic of Cancer Myanmar Arabian (Burma) Basin Bay of Bengal Arabian Sea Sri Lanka India Ocean Figure 1 – Global Strategic Trends definition of South Asia 3 We have constructed the survey to take into account our readers’ differing needs. The key findings section highlights the major themes for the region and identifies their relevance for defence and security. Further: Part 1 articulates the core arguments, identifies the key themes and explains the analytical base. It provides examples of how the Global Strategic Trends (GST) ring road issues1 are relevant to the region. It then outlines the key themes faced by South Asia in two essays: The Future International Context and The Challenge of Transformation. Part 2 provides the source data from our horizon-scanning process and summarises the relevant trends and drivers. We have also addressed hot topics and potential strategic shocks. Hot topics analyse in greater depth specific countries and issues of particular interest. Strategic shocks are high impact, but low probability, events that would have a significant impact on both global and UK’s defence and security. They are, therefore, worthy of some consideration. Expressing probability We have assigned each finding with an ‘assessment of likelihood’. This assessment represents the probability of the finding as viewed by the authors. Such probabilities are, by necessity, subjective. Their function provides a measure to guide those policy planners who need to make timely and informed decisions regarding complex global issues using a readily comparable scale for judgements.2 Using the terms listed below, we have written these assessments in italics. Due to the high number of variables, trends-based analysis can never offer precise predictive analysis. The terms below provide only a coarse indication of certainty, based on available evidence. Assessment of probability Description Associated probability range will greater than 90% likely/probably between 60% and 90% may/possibly between 10% and 60% unlikely/improbable less than 10% 1 The ring road issues of globalisation, climate change, global inequality and innovation are discussed throughout this study. See Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2040 for further information. 2 ‘In order to acknowledge the uncertainty of an event, the first task is to measure the intensity of your belief in the truth of that event; to attach to each event a number, which describes your attitude to the statement.’ Lindley D.V, Understanding Uncertainty, 2006. 4 Definitions Term Definition Trend A discernable pattern of change. Driver A factor that directly influences or causes change. A driver that is so pervasive in its nature and influence that it will Ring road issue affect the life of everyone on the planet over the next 30 years. In depth research and analysis on trends and drivers, organised Dimension into four key areas: social; resource and environment; economic; and science and technology. A shock is a high impact event that results in a discontinuity or an abrupt alteration in the strategic context. The strategic shock can Strategic shock be expected or unexpected. The important point is that it dislocates the strategic context from the trends that have preceded it. Outline methodology Global Strategic Trends is based on analysing drivers and trends. The process identifies trends and drivers in the social, science and technology, economic, resource and environment, and geopolitical dimensions.3 Within each of these dimensions, key trends have been determined through detailed analysis with subject matter experts. A cross- dimensional analysis then considers how these trends are likely to develop and interact, in order to establish the key themes: the future international context the tension of transition evolving defence and security challenges. Assessments are made to varying degrees of probability to reflect multiple alternative outcomes. The future outlined in Global Strategic Trends is realistic, based on the most probable outcomes. Alternative futures are also explored. 3 Note that, unlike Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2040, this publication does not contain a ‘geopolitical dimension’.