Post-election report of election commitments 2016 general election © Commonwealth of Australia 2016 ISSN 978-0-9944547-6-8 (Online) This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License. The details of this licence are available on the Creative Commons website: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/au/ Use of the Coat of Arms The terms under which the Coat of Arms can be used are detailed on the following website: www.itsanhonour.gov.au/coat-arms Produced by: Parliamentary Budget Office Designed by: Studio Tweed First Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer Fiscal Policy Analysis Division Parliamentary Budget Office Parliament House PO Box 6010 CANBERRA ACT 2600 Phone: (02) 6277 9500 Email: [email protected] Contents Foreword ________________________________________________________________ v Budget impacts of election commitments ______________________________________ 1 Coalition election commitments __________________________________________ 1 Interaction of election commitments __________________________________ 3 Impacts on headline cash and public debt interest ________________________ 3 Longer-term budget impacts _________________________________________ 3 Additional Coalition commitment identified by the PBO ___________________ 3 Australian Labor Party __________________________________________________ 4 Interaction of election commitments __________________________________ 5 Impacts on headline cash and public debt interest ________________________ 5 Longer-term budget impacts _________________________________________ 6 Additional Labor commitments identified by the PBO _____________________ 7 Australian Greens ______________________________________________________ 7 Interaction of election commitments __________________________________ 9 Impacts on headline cash and public debt interest ________________________ 9 Longer-term budget impacts _________________________________________ 9 Additional Greens commitments identified by the PBO ___________________ 10 List of appendices Appendix A – Budget impact of the Coalition’s election commitments _______________ 11 Appendix B – Budget impacts of Labor’s election commitments ____________________ 19 Appendix C – Budget impacts of the Greens’ election commitments _________________ 39 Appendix D – Requirements for post-election report of election commitments ________ 47 Appendix E – Costing documentation for the Coalition’s election commitments ________ 53 Appendix F – Costing documention for Labor’s election commitments ______________ 125 Appendix G – Costing documentation for the Greens’ election commitments _________ 443 iii Foreword Under section 64MA of the Parliamentary Service Act 1999 (the Act), the Parliamentary Budget Officer must, before the end of 30 days after the end of the caretaker period for a general election, prepare a post-election report of the budget impacts of the election commitments of designated parliamentary parties. A designated parliamentary party means a party with at least five members in the Parliament immediately before the commencement of the caretaker period. For the 2016 election, the designated parties are the Coalition, the Australian Greens (the Greens) and the Australian Labor Party (Labor). Consistent with the requirements of the Act, the information in the post-election report of election commitments for the 2016 general election: i uses the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2016 report as the baseline for the costings of election commitments ii incorporates costings of all the election commitments of each designated parliamentary party that, in my best professional judgement, would have a material impact on the Commonwealth budget estimates for the current financial year and the following three financial years, and iii shows for each designated parliamentary party, the total combined impact those election commitments would be expected to have on the Commonwealth budget estimates for the current and the following three financial years. Consistent with the Charter of Budget Honesty Costing Guidelines, where the budget impact of an election commitment is likely to be significantly different beyond the forward estimates period, this impact is identified in the report. The report includes full costing documentation for all election commitments, with the exception of those commitments that are specified as providing capped levels of funding or are to be funded from within existing resources. For these latter commitments, I have satisfied myself that adequate funding is available, including where relevant, to meet the associated departmental administrative expenses. Consistent with Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) Technical Note 01/2015, each costing prepared by the PBO has been assigned a reliability rating, with the estimates in the costing representing the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s best estimate of the cost of the commitment. Phil Bowen PSM FCPA Parliamentary Budget Officer 5 August 2016 v Budget impacts of election commitments The total budget impacts of the 2016 election commitments of each of the designated parliamentary parties, as costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), are set out in Table 1 below.1 Table 1: Budget impacts of election commitments of designated parliamentary parties Designated parliamentary party 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Total ($b) ($b) ($b) ($b) ($b) Coalition Impact on underlying cash balance 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 Impact on fiscal balance 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.0 Australian Labor Party Impact on underlying cash balance -2.3 -4.0 -4.8 -5.5 -16.6 Impact on fiscal balance -2.7 -5.4 -5.6 -5.9 -19.6 Australian Greens Impact on underlying cash balance 1.7 -1.4 3.7 4.1 8.2 Impact on fiscal balance 2.0 -1.3 3.1 4.3 8.1 A positive number indicates an improvement in the budget balances. A negative number indicates a deterioration in the budget balances. After accounting for additional Greens’ commitments identified by the PBO ($1.0 billion) and the inclusion of public debt interest costs in the budget impact of the Greens’ commitments ($0.4 billion), the estimates prepared by the PBO over the 2016–17 Budget forward estimates period are not materially different to those made public by the parties prior to polling day. Coalition election commitments The Coalition’s total combined election commitments, as set out in Table 2 below, are estimated to increase the underlying cash balance by $1.1 billion and the fiscal balance by $3.0 billion over the 2016–17 Budget forward estimates period, reflecting a net decrease in payments and expenses. These budget impacts exclude the impacts of Coalition election commitments that were included in the 2016 Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook report which is the baseline for this report. 1 Legislative requirements for preparing the post-election report of the budget impact of election commitments are detailed in Appendix G. Budget impacts of election commitments 1 Table 2: Budget impact of the Coalition’s election commitments Impact on budget balances ($b) 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Total Receipts .. .. .. .. .. Payments 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 Public debt interest .. .. .. .. .. Underlying cash balance 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 Revenue .. .. .. .. .. Expenses (incl. net capital investment) 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.0 Public debt interest .. .. .. .. .. Fiscal balance 0.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 3.0 A positive impact on the budget balances indicates an increase in receipts/revenue or a decrease in payments/expenses. A negative impact on the budget balances indicates a decrease in receipts/revenue or an increase in payments/expenses. .. Not zero but rounded to zero. There were no material differences between these budget impacts and those released by the Coalition prior to the election. The most significant Coalition commitments that contribute to the increases in the underlying cash and fiscal balances are the measures under the heading Better Management of the Social Welfare System. These measures are expected to increase the underlying cash balance by $2.0 billion and the fiscal balance by $3.9 billion over the 2016–17 Budget forward estimates period. The Coalition election commitments include $2.1 billion in infrastructure and transport-related expenditure. This is funded through redirections of uncommitted funds from existing infrastructure programs with no net budget impact over the 2016–17 Budget forward estimates period. The underlying cash and fiscal balance impacts of the Coalition’s election commitments differ, reflecting the difference in timing of the recognition of debts and the receipt of monies owed to the Commonwealth under the commitment Better Management of the Social Welfare System. A detailed table outlining the source and budget impacts of each of the Coalition’s election commitments is provided at Appendix A. Costing documentation for the Coalition’s election commitments is provided at Appendix E. The costing documentation for the Coalition’s election commitments is that prepared by the Treasury and the Department of Finance during the caretaker period except where the PBO has provided additional information in addenda to those costings. 2 Post-election report of election commitments Interaction of election commitments No significant budget impacts were identified as a result of interactions between Coalition election commitments. Impacts on headline cash and public debt interest The Coalition’s total combined election commitments are expected to increase the headline cash balance by $1.1 billion over the