SPECIAL REPORT Peru: Censure and a Recomposed Government What can be expected of the Cateriano Government? Lima, April 2015 BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO PERU: CENSURE AND A RECOMPOSED GOVERNMENT 1. THE FACTS On Monday 30 March, the Peruvian Parliament censured the Prime 1. THE FACTS Minister Ana Jara Velásquez with 72 votes for and 42 against. 2. THE GOVERNMENT OF CHANGE: WHAT SHOULD BE EXPECTED? The accusations of illegal spying of politicians, journalists, and others by DINI exceeded the Government's ability to respond, and AUTHOR now it has little room to manoeuvre. LLORENTE & CUENCA This action thus increased the precariousness of Ollanta Humala's Government which must now be restructured; and Humala must appear before 30 days from appointment before the Parliament to receive the investiture vote. Peru has seen nothing like this since Minister Óscar Trelles of Fernando Belaúnde Terry's Government was impeached in 1963. More than 50 years have elapsed since, and even though it is infrequent, the Political Constitution of Peru regards the legal figure and implications of censure as part of the Peruvian democratic system. The Constitution even specifies that in the case of two consecutive censures, the Parliament must dissolve and the President of the Republic must call a parliamentary election to elect the members of Parliament who will end the term of office. The Parliament has spoken. A Parliament that is polarised and divided in the same way that the National party is internally divided: between disaffected parliament members and National party dissidents, spied politicians and political members who during the presidential campaign and the two years of Government constituted its shock force that made it possible to the candidate and initial government to succeed. They are all now clashing with the presidential couple. But the damage had started much earlier. It became obvious with the questioning of Ministers Cateriano (Defence) and Mayorga (Energy and Mining), which shook the foundations of the presidency and the entire Government due to trading in influence, purchase of military technology from France, and preferential treatment of private companies linked to hydrocarbons. The situation has been made worse by the case of Martín Belaúnde Lossio and his relationship with corrupt Regional Presidents, and previously by the Orellana case. But the Government, incredibly, stood its ground, albeit damaged, discredited, and questioned. The case of the Peruvian National Intelligence Service (DINI), and the spying of more than 100,000 people, including politicians, 2 PERU: CENSURE AND A RECOMPOSED GOVERNMENT journalists, and members of the 2. THE GOVERNMENT OF opposition and of the ruling CHANGE: WHAT SHOULD “The President of the party, was the trigger this time. BE EXPECTED? The impossibility of making Republic appointed the President legally liable for The Parliament censure of Ana Pedro Cateriano the alleged spying placed Ana Jara showed that alliances have Bellido as the new Jara in the spotlight as the sole been broken at all political Prime Minister” political culprit. Ana Jara was a levels. This is a new scenario. good politician in the past, but It is less comfortable and more was hindered by a Government conflictive, full of questioning style that decreases the role of and polarised by the its key agents: its ministers. And Government, the Parliament, censure was inevitable. and the ruling National party. Prime Ministers under the Last Thursday, during the Humala Government have Easter holiday in Peru, the lasted on average 231 days. President of the Republic In the case of Ana Jara, she appointed Pedro Cateriano was the Prime Minister for Bellido (who was previously the 251 days. The longest-serving Minister of Defence) as the new Prime Minister was Juan Prime Minister, changing also Jiménez at 463 days, and the three key ministries: Justice, shortest term of office was Defence, and Foreign Affairs. that of César Villanueva, at 118 The three new members of the days. The latter existed after Cateriano Government are: being de-authorised by the Gustavo Adrianzén as Minister First Lady and the Minister of of Justice and Human Rights, Economy, Luis Miguel Castilla, replacing Fredy Otárola; Ana after announcing an internal María Sánchez as Minister assessment of the minimum of Foreign Affairs, replacing salary. Gonzalo Gutiérrez; and Jakke Valakivi as Minister of Defence, replacing Pedro Cateriano. All the President’s Men (and Women): The Life Cycle The list of candidates to Prime of the Prime Ministers in the Humala Government Minister included Beatriz Merino, Juan Manuel Benites MINISTER FROM TO –the current Minister of Salomón Lerner Ghitis 28/07/2011 10/12/2011 Agriculture–, Jaime Saavedra Oscar Valdés Dancuart 10/12/2011 23/07/2012 –the current Minister of Juan Jiménez Mayor 23/07/2012 29/10/2013 Education–, the Minister of César Villanueva Arévalo 31/10/2013 24/02/2014 Housing, Construction and René Cornejo Díaz 24/02/2014 22/07/2014 Sanitation, Milton von Hesse (who had been the main Ana Jara Velázquez 22/07/2014 30/03/2015 candidate to the position until Source: El Comercio Wednesday night), and even 3 PERU: CENSURE AND A RECOMPOSED GOVERNMENT Lourdes Flores, the leader of 30 days. A second censure the Popular Christian Party. of the Government and “Cateriano has the the Prime Minister would Social and mainstream media lead, as stipulated in the trust of the President even speculated on the Constitution, to a situation and the First Lady” appointment of Daniel Urresti of non-governability which –the current National party would empower the President candidate to the Presidency in of the Republic to close the 2016, who until recently was the Parliament. Minister of Domestic Affairs– on a pessimistic note, certain Cateriano has the trust of the that an Urresti Government President and the First Lady, would be strongly rejected by and belongs to their inner the Parliament. circle. In recent statements after his appointment, The news of Cateriano's Cateriano told the media that appointment as Prime Minister he will engage in dialogue, be gave rise to a worried reaction patient, and take a conciliatory among the opposition, and approach in his new role as to bewilderment among the representative of all the those who define Cateriano Ministers and of the President. as a confrontational man This is a very different attitude in all respects. His three- from the one he had until year tenure as Minister of recently as the Minister of Defence was questioned due Defence. For the time being, to the purchase of military he has a meeting schedule, equipment and technology starting today with the leaders from France using PNUD of the PPC and of the party funds, in which the First led by Alejandro Toledo, the Lady was directly involved, former President of Peru. A coordinating and approving the more difficult rapprochement purchase. This was also recorded is the one that must take place in an audio recording in which between the current Prime Cateriano can be heard telling Minister and the leader of the someone on the telephone: APRA party, Alan García, as "I have Nadine Heredia's well as with Keiko Fujimori. authorisation for the purchase". This fact led Cateriano, then As for the representatives of Minister of Defence, to be the private sector, such as the questioned by the Parliament. National Industry Society He came off lightly. (SNI) and the Chamber of Commerce of Lima (CCL), The opposition believe that they told the media that they this is a "provocation" against will support any Government the Parliament, which must initiatives aimed at increasing give a vote of confidence investment and economic and to the new Government in political stability. 4 PERU: CENSURE AND A RECOMPOSED GOVERNMENT Political analysts agree that, and society as a whole, with as long as the Prime Minister economic and social agents “This might be an is open to dialogue, a positive entering a period of severe impact on economic agents uncertainty and a crisis of opportunity to cool the will be achieved, decreasing confidence. Such a scenario political environment” mistrust and generating would have a dramatic impact stability until the new on macroeconomic indicators, presidential election is held in possibly with the private April 2016. investment index –which is usually the most sensitive one A damaging situation for in unstable political scenarios– the country will arise if the dropping below current Parliament decides not to levels; and economy growth give a vote of confidence to would continue to decrease, the current Government and reaching lower levels than the the new Prime Minister, thus figures currently handled by leading to the closing of the the Minister of the Economy, Parliament. In this case, we Alonso Segura, as regards will all lose: the Government, annual GDP growth. as it will have been unable to reconfigure its Council This might be an opportunity of Ministers and provide to cool the political sufficient leadership to environment and turn persuade the Parliament; the Cateriano into a Prime Minister Parliament, which would lose who generates a consensus, its validity for the remaining and who –as expected– will term of office; the democratic lead the Government's calm, State, whose balance of legitimate transition towards powers would be damaged; the new 2016 Government. 5 PERU: CENSURE AND A RECOMPOSED GOVERNMENT The profile of Prime Minister Cateriano and the new Ministers • Pedro Cateriano Bellido holds a Degree in Law by the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP). He is a specialist in Constitutional Law, and holds a Ph.D from Instituto de Investigación José Ortega y Gasset, affiliated with Universidad Complutense de Madrid in Spain. He works as an international consultant.