STORM SURGE BARRIER TOKYO BAY ANALYSIS ON A SYSTEM LEVEL AND CONCEPTUAL DESIGN MSc Thesis María José Ruiz Fuentes June 2014 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK CIE5060-09 MSc Thesis Institution Delft University of Technology Document Thesis final report Master of Science Civil Engineering Track Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk Title Storm Surge Barrier Tokyo Bay Analysis on a system level and conceptual design Date June 2014 Student María José Ruiz Fuentes (4230647) Supervision Prof. Dr. Ir. S.N. Jonkman (TU Delft) Ir. A. Van der Toorn (TU Delft) Ir. H.J. Verhagen (TU Delft) Dr. M. Esteban (University of Tokyo) THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK CIE5060-09 MSc Thesis M.J Ruiz Fuentes Storm surge barrier Tokyo Bay TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................................... 13 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 15 1.1. PROBLEM STATEMENT ........................................................................................................................ 15 1.2. OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................................................ 16 1.3. APPROACH ......................................................................................................................................... 17 1.4. REPORT STRUCTURE ........................................................................................................................... 18 2. PROBLEM DESCRIPTION ............................................................................................................................. 19 2.1. TOKYO BAY PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................................. 19 2.1.1. MORPHOLOGY ........................................................................................................................... 19 2.1.2. GEOLOGY ................................................................................................................................... 20 2.1.3. RIVERS ....................................................................................................................................... 20 2.1.4. TIDE ........................................................................................................................................... 20 2.2. SOCIOECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ....................................................................................................... 21 2.2.1. POPULATION .............................................................................................................................. 21 2.2.2. ECONOMY .................................................................................................................................. 21 2.2.3. PORTS AND NAVIGATION............................................................................................................ 22 2.3. FLOODS IN TOKYO BAY ........................................................................................................................ 22 2.3.1. PAST FLOODS ............................................................................................................................. 22 2.3.2. EXISTING COASTAL DEFENCES ..................................................................................................... 23 2.3.3. GOVERNMENT POLICIES ............................................................................................................. 23 2.4. TYPHOONS ......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.4.1. RAINFALL.................................................................................................................................... 24 2.4.2. STORM SURGE ............................................................................................................................ 24 2.4.3. WAVES ....................................................................................................................................... 25 2.4.4. EXPECTED INTENSITY INCREASE .................................................................................................. 26 2.5. EARTHQUAKES .................................................................................................................................... 26 2.6. TSUNAMIS .......................................................................................................................................... 28 2.7. STORM SURGE BARRIERS .................................................................................................................... 29 2.8. REFERENCE DOCUMENTS .................................................................................................................... 30 2.8.1. PREVIOUS STUDIES ..................................................................................................................... 30 2.8.2. STANDARDS AND GUIDELINES .................................................................................................... 31 3. ANALYSIS ON A SYSTEM LEVEL ................................................................................................................... 32 3.1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 32 3.2. CURRENT AND FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF COASTAL DEFENCES .......................................................... 33 3.3. FLOOD PROTECTION ALTERNATIVES .................................................................................................... 35 3.3.1. ALTERNATIVES ............................................................................................................................ 35 3.3.2. UPGRADING COASTAL DEFENCES ................................................................................................ 36 3.3.3. STORM SURGE BARRIER.............................................................................................................. 37 3.4. ALTERNATIVE SELECTION .................................................................................................................... 48 3.4.1. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 49 3.4.2. MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 56 Storm surge barrier Tokyo Bay – Final report – 3 CIE5060-09 MSc Thesis M.J Ruiz Fuentes 3.5. ANALYSIS OF THE OUTCOME ............................................................................................................... 59 3.5.1. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................ 59 3.5.2. PROPOSED BARRIER LAYOUT FOR DESIGN PHASE........................................................................ 61 4. DAM DESIGN .............................................................................................................................................. 64 4.1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 64 4.2. REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................... 64 4.2.1. PREVIOUS STUDIES ..................................................................................................................... 64 4.2.2. PROVEN TECHNOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 65 4.3. REQUIREMENTS .................................................................................................................................. 66 4.3.1. FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS..................................................................................................... 66 4.3.2. CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................ 67 4.4. BOUNDARY CONDITIONS .................................................................................................................... 67 4.4.1. BATHYMETRIC CONDITIONS........................................................................................................ 67 4.4.2. GEOTECHNICAL CONDITIONS ...................................................................................................... 68 4.4.3. HYDRAULIC LOADS ..................................................................................................................... 68 4.4.4. EARTHQUAKE LOADS .................................................................................................................. 69 4.5. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................. 69 4.6. CROSS-SECTION TYPOLOGY ................................................................................................................. 70 4.6.1. CHOICE