Essays and Perspectives Natureza & Conservação 9(2):145-151, December 2011 Copyright© 2011 ABECO Handling Editor: Maria Lucia Lorini Brazilian Journal of Nature Conservation doi: 10.4322/natcon.2011.020 Coupled Atmosphere-Biosphere Models as a Tool for Conservation Planning and Policy Richard J. Ladle1,2, Ana C. M. Malhado1,3 & Marcos H. Costa3 1 Instituto de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde – ICBS, Universidade Federal de Alagoas – UFAL, Maceió, AL, Brazil 2 School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom 3 Departamento de Engenharia da Agricultura, Universidade Federal de Viçosa – UFV, Viçosa, MG, Brazil Abstract Over the last 20 years a new generation of climate models have been developed that link atmosphere models to dynamic vegetation models (coupled atmosphere-biosphere models). These models are able to capture key feedbacks between the changing climate and changing ecosystems, providing more realistic forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, the biosphere model can be regionally calibrated to provide more geographically specific predictions about future trajectories of environmental change over the next century. We identify four potential uses of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models for conservation: (i) more accurate and regionally specific forecasts of climate change; (ii) better understanding of carbon cycling, a key ecosystem service; (iii) better placement and design of protected areas, and; (iv) improved modeling of different land-use scenarios. Realizing these objectives will require better integration and communication between modeling and conservation communities and the development of specific visualization and planning tools that allows these complex models to be fully integrated into conservation planning. Key words: Climate Change, Land Use, Environmental Governance, Scale, Amazon. Introduction The latest projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on (Jepson & Ladle 2010), promoting a wide range of strategies Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 suggest that the Earth will for mitigation and adaptation (Hannah et al. 2002). However, heat up by 1.8-4 °C this century as compared with late 20th conservation planning in a rapidly changing world poses century baselines (IPCC 2007). The warmer temperature considerable challenges and will require conservationists, combined with wide-scale changes in precipitation patterns planners and policy makers to develop flexible, dynamic and the seasonality of weather will have a profound impact approaches that seek to conserve the processes underpinning on the distribution of biomes and species. Indeed, climate is biodiversity, and not just the species that have been the thought to play a key role in determining the distributions of traditional targets for conservation action (Fuller et al. 2011). species (Pearson & Dawson 2003), and consequently there A recent review of conservation planning studies revealed have been great efforts to predict the impacts of climate that approximately 80% of initiatives assume that neither change on biodiversity. For example, one high profile biodiversity, nor the ecological and environmental processes study that combined a Global Circulation model (GCM) on which it depends, change over time (Pressey et al. 2007). with species distribution models predicted that 15-37% Moreover, there is frequently a lack of alignment between of species in their sample regions would be ‘committed spatial scale of climate change models, the key ecosystem to extinction’ (living outside of their current climate processes that are influenced by changes in the climate, and envelope) as a result of climate change between 2004 and the political and planning units that develop conservation 2050 (Thomas et al. 2004). policy and formulate responses. For example, while The results of these and other studies have propelled climate conservation planning is frequently done at a regional or change to the forefront of the global conservation agenda landscape scale, the most commonly used climate change models (Global Circulation/General Climate Models) are *Send correspondence to: Richard J. Ladle globally calibrated and, in any case, do not incorporate Instituto de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde – ICBS, the dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and Universidade Federal de Alagoas – UFAL, Praça Afrânio Jorge, s/n, Prado, CEP 57010-020, the biosphere that are essential for a more complete Maceió, AL, Brasil understanding of how major ecosystems will change in E-mail: [email protected] a warming world. 146 Ladle et al. Natureza & Conservação 9(2):145-151, December 2011 Over the last 20 years a new generation of climate models A major advance in producing a genuinely coupled model have been developed that seek to address these challenges that could effectively simulate the bi-directional feedbacks by coupling GCMs to vegetation models (e.g. Cox et al. between the atmosphere and the biosphere occurred in 2000, Cox et al. 2004) – hereafter referred to as coupled 1998 when Jonathan Foley and his colleagues developed a atmosphere-biosphere models – and, regionally calibrating new framework for model integration (Foley et al. 1998). the coupled models to provide more accurate and spatially The new approach involved the common treatment of specific predictions about changes in land coverage by land surface, ecophysiological and vegetation dynamics major ecosystem types and climate change within specified processes. To demonstrate the feasibility of their integration regions. In the following perspective we (i) provide a brief strategy they coupled the GCM (GENESIS 2) with the overview of the development, characteristics and sensitivity Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS version 1; Foley et al. of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models, (ii) discuss the 1996)- (detailed specification in Levis et al. 1999 ). Within potential application of these models to conservation the coupled model GENESIS simulated the atmospheric policy, planning and practice and, finally, (iii) outline the dynamics while IBIS predicted changes in vegetation various challenges faced by the modeling and conservation dynamics in response to competition among plants and research communities to fully utilize and exploit the results variation in CO2 levels. of coupled models. The conceptual focus of studies utilizing coupled atmosphere- biosphere models is extremely variable. However, the Modelling Atmosphere-Biosphere most typical uses are the generation of high-resolution Interactions maps of atmospheric CO2 (e.g. Ahmadov et al. 2007), modeling changes in vegetation cover and their dynamic As described above, coupled atmosphere-biosphere models relationship with climate variables such as air temperature have two components: a climate model linked to a vegetation and precipitation (e.g. Cox et al. 2004; Anav & Mariotti model. Such a structure allows scientists to better account 2011), predicting and monitoring changes in key ecosystem for the dynamic interactions between vegetation dynamics variables such as net primary production, leaf area index (e.g. and atmospheric chemistry (e.g. carbon cycling and water Dan & Li 2005) and carbon fluxes (e.g. Delire et al. 2003). cycling). The climate model part of the couple is typically a general circulation model such as the National Center for The wide range of uses, flexibility and predictive power of Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) Community Climate Model coupled models suggest that they would be useful tools (in conjunction with other climate models) for exploring Version 3 (CCM3). The NCAR model is a good example of and informing conservation policy. However, their utility a climate model that provides a physical representation of depends, to an extent, on their robustness at different spatial key climate processes such as clouds and radiation, moist scales of analysis. In this context the success of coupled convection, the planetary boundary layer, and large-scale models such GENESIS-IBIS in generating predictions for transport (Kiehl et al. 1998). The main purpose of GCMs global land cover patterns are somewhat counterbalanced, is to model the effects of changes in certain boundary as Foley et al. note, by “significant regional biases in the conditions (e.g. solar constant) or physical parameters (e.g. simulation” (Foley et al. 1998, p. 562). Such regional biases in CO concentration) on the future global climate (McGuffie 2 estimation have continued to be an issue for coupled models. & Henderson-Sellers 1997). For instance, Dan et al. (2005) observed that the predicted It has long been recognized that the predictions of GCMs may values for leaf area index (LAI) from their coupled model be compromised because they do not account for important (AVIM-IAP/LASG GOALS GCM) varied considerably from bi-directional interactions between the atmosphere and observed values in certain areas. Consequently, one of the the biosphere. In one of the first attempts to incorporate goals of climate researchers over the last decade has been biosphere interactions into GCMs, Sellers et al. (1986) to produce coupled atmosphere-biosphere models that are created a simple biosphere model (SiB) that represented better able to simulate regional fluxes. This is especially each terrestrial model grid area in terms of an upper and important from the perspective of developing effective lower vegetation layer, either or both of which could be adaptation and mitigation strategies since most political present or absent at