THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CATALAN INDEPENDENCE José Luis Feito Higueruela Ángel de la Fuente Guillem López-Casasnovas Joan Rosselló Villalonga Clemente Polo SEPTEMBER 2014 © 2014 José Luis Feito Higueruela, A ngel de la Fuente, Guillem L ópez Casasnov as, Joan Rossell ó Villal onga y Clemente Polo © 2014 I NSTITUTO DE ESTUDIOS ECONÓMICOS C/ Castelló, 128 - 6.ª planta 28006 Madrid Tel.: 917 820 580 [email protected] www.ieemadrid.es Depósito Legal: M-27010-2014 Layout and design : Erica Alonso Alba Printed by Fragma Printed in Spain - September 2014 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be transmitted in any form or by any means . Nor may any part of this publication be included as a reference in any other work without authorization. Please contact CEDRO (Centro Español de Derechos Reprográficos, www.cedro.org) if you need to photocopy or scan any part of this publication. INDEX Introduction Instituto de Estudios Económicos.............................................................................................7 JOSÉ LUIS FEITO HIGUERUELA The pitfalls of Catalan independence’s economic postulates ...........................................9 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................10 2. The importance of economic factors in fostering the pro-independence sentiment in Catalonia ..............................................................................................11 3. The fiscal crisis of Spain and Catalonia ................................................................15 3.1. Fiscal consequences of the boom and the economic crisis...........................16 3.2. The fiscal crisis of Catalonia..............................................................................19 4. The plundering myth and the reality of the fiscal treatment of Catalonia ....23 4.1. The fiscal balances of Catalonia.......................................................................25 4.2. The fiscal treatment of Catalonia.....................................................................31 5. The economic costs for Catalonia of independence and self-determination referendums ................................................................................................................34 5.1. The costs of independence for Catalonia..........................................................36 5.2. An independent Catalonia within Europe.......................................................40 5.3. The cost of the self-determination referendum or plebiscite election..........43 6. Conclusions .................................................................................................................46 Bibliographical appendix ................................................................................................51 ÁNGEL DE LA FUENTE Is Catalonia being fiscally mistreated? ................................................................................55 1. Introduction: The current state of affairs of the debate in Spain .....................56 2. Is the Catalan regional government underfinanced? ..........................................56 3. Is Spain robbing us? ..................................................................................................59 4. This doesn’t happen anywhere else? .....................................................................62 4.1. Germany..............................................................................................................62 4.2. United States.......................................................................................................64 4.3. Italy.....................................................................................................................65 4.4. UK, Australia and Canada................................................................................66 5. Conclusion: much ado about nothing ....................................................................68 References ...........................................................................................................................70 GUILLEM LÓPEZ-CASASNOVAS and JOAN ROSSELLÓ VILLALONGA The debate of fiscal balances: two different questions, two different methods, two different results ..........................................................................................................73 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................73 2. Two methods ...............................................................................................................74 3. Questions and results ................................................................................................76 4. Concluding remarks ..................................................................................................78 CLEMENTE POLO The secessionist challenge and the economic consequences of Independence ....81 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................82 2. The political challenge to the State and the economic case for secession .............84 3. Catalonia a privileged region of Spain .........................................................................87 3.1. Might Catalonia have become the Holland of southern Europe?.......................88 3.2. The economic consequences of the Succession War (1702-1714)........................88 3.3. Catalonia ‘the workshop of Spain’...........................................................................89 3.4. From the end of the 19th century to the Civil War...............................................90 3.5. Economic recovery during Franco’s regime..........................................................91 3.6. The protection of the national market....................................................................91 3.7. Conclusions.................................................................................................................92 4. The weight of Catalonia’s exports to the ROS and the consequences of the rupture of the national market and the exit of the EU ...............................................93 4.1. The importance of the Spanish market at the start of the 21st century...............94 4.2. Effects of independence on Catalonia’s exports.....................................................96 4.3. Antràs and Ventura’s estimates………...............................................................….98 5. The ‘eurization’ of the Catalan economy .....................................................................99 5.1. Effects on financial institutions, interest rates and asset holdings………..........99 5.2. Effects on foreign investment, money supply and financial stability...............100 5.3. Fairy tales………........................................................................................................101 5.4. Conclusions…………................................................................................................101 6. Catalonia’s fiscal balance and the fiscal dividend of independence ....................102 6.1. On the concept of fiscal balance and fiscal deficit………....................................102 6.2. Catalonia’s fiscal balance and fiscal deficit with the State Central Administration.........................................................................................................103 6.3. The role of the spatial dimension……..............................................................….103 6.4. A closer analysis of the CFB results………....................................................…...105 6.5. The independence’s manna…..........................................................................…...106 7. General conclusions ……………………………………..........................…………….107 References ……………...................................................................................................…….111 Appendix 1. The input-output model …………….....................................................……114 Appendix 2. Detailed sectoral results for total production ............................................116 Appendix 3. Trade intensity in several disintegration episodes in Central Europe .120 Introduction Instituto de Estudios Económicos The Instituto de Estudios Económicos (IEE) is a private research organization aimed at promoting and publishing studies and analysis in the economic and social fields, mainly concentrating on themes concerning Spain and with a special focus on private enterprise and market system as most efficient mechanisms for resource allocation. The IEE now offers an analysis of the economic consequences which a hypothetical secession of Catalonia could bring along and also reviews the financial situation of Catalonia, badly financed according to the recurring complaints of Catalan nationalists. The IEE has selected a series of major articles previously published on these subjects such as the studies produced by Ángel de la Fuente ( “Is Catalonia being fiscally mistreated? ”) and Clemente Polo ( “Catalonia: The secessionist challenge and the economic consequences of independence” ). The President of the IEE, José Luis Feito, has also published a study, originally prepared for Panel Cívico , which is included in this review under the title “The pitfalls of Catalan independence’s economic postulates”. Finally, Guillem Lopez-Casasnovas and Joan Rossello offer a detailed analysis