V17, N25 Thursday, March 1, 2012 Howey/DePauw Poll seminar Tuesday HPI subscribers, students will get election preview, polling plan from Matthews & Yang GREENCASTLE, Ind. - An intrigu- ing national political environment featur- ing a compelling U.S. Senate primary, a Republican presidential contest coming to Indiana, and the historic “rubber match” between the two major parties, and how modern polling is evolving will be topics for Party, Gov. Frank O’Bannon and Indianapolis Mayor Bart national pollsters Christine Matthews and Fred Yang and Peterson. Howey Politics Indiana Publisher Brian A. Howey in a semi- The two pollsters join Howey Politics Indiana, a nar at DePauw University on “Super Tuesday” March 6. non-partisan political newsletter, in creating the Indiana Matthews, Yang and Howey (pictured above from Battleground Poll. There will be two statewide surveys left to right) will unveil the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battle- before the May 8 primary covering the races for president, ground Poll program at 7:30 p.m. that day at the Pulliam governor and U.S. Senate and the issues driving them. Center for Contemporary Media on the DePauw University Then polls will be conducted in September and late October campus. It will be open to students, staff, news media and on the presidential, gubernatorial, U.S. Senate and state- the general public. wide offices in the general election. HPI subscribers are invited to attend the seminar. “During the historic 2008 election there were more Matthews is a Republican pollster and owner of than 30 independent media polls conducted in Indiana,” Bellwether Research in Washington and has polled for Gov. said Howey. “Because of the financial status of many news Mitch Daniels and the Indiana Republican Party. Yang is media entities, we saw only a handful of independent sur- a partner in Garin-Hart-Yang, a Democratic firm based in Continued on page 3 Washington that has polled for the Indiana Democratic Pat Bauer will be back in ‘13 By JACK COLWELL INDIANAPOLIS - Pat Bauer will be back in the Statehouse next year. Gov. Mitch Daniels will be gone after two terms during which he ‘‘There is no such thing as clean and Bauer, who was either House speaker or House minority leader, air.” were in frequent conflict. The Republican governor, - Sen. Jim Tomes, on the always with a Republican Senate, proposed smoking ban most times came out the eventual winner over the Democratic legisla- tor from South Bend. Thus it was with passage of Right to Work legis- lation, hailed by Daniels as bringing HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, March 1, 2012 jobs, referred to by Bauer as bringing long wrangle that it will bring lower “right to work for less.” paying jobs, will get to the polls this Bauer, unopposed for reelec- fall and vote Democratic. tion to the House, where he has “He broke my heart when he served since 1971, hopes to have didn’t run for president,” Bauer quips. www.HoweyPolitics.com stronger Democratic ranks next ses- He says if Daniels had run, the nation- sion in seeking to remedy “the dam- al news media would have focused on age he (Daniels) has done.” real wages and real unemployment in Howey Politics Bauer cites three areas of Indiana. Bauer already was providing Indiana “damage.” He predicts that voter statistics. is a non-partisan newsletter reaction to them will combine to But can Democrats really gain based in Indianapolis. It was bring House Democrats back from the a House majority or just improve on founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. Republican “tsunami” that swept them the 40 seats now held? out of majority in 2010. n Republicans drew the The three: redistricting maps this time. Brian A. Howey, Publisher n Bauer contends that n A dozen House Democrats Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Department of Child Services cuts left didn’t file for reelection. Jack E. Howey, editor holes in the safety net protecting chil- n Republican Congressman Beverly K. Phillips, associate dren from abusive treatment, resulting Mike Pence, with hefty funding, is in terrible situations throughout the favored for governor. editor state that have even caused deaths. n Few think President He notes that the situation recently Obama can again carry Indiana. Subscriptions was brought to public attention in ar- Still, House races are more $350 annually HPI Weekly ticles in The Tribune and Indianapolis local in nature, Bauer says, with folks Star. He says Democrats will campaign knowing the candidates and concen- $550 annually HPI Weekly and on remedy, saying trating on things such as HPI Daily Wire. this is an area where their local schools, local 'Call 317.627.6746 saving lives is more child protection services important than sav- and what the state has ing dollars. or hasn’t done to help Contact HPI n He ac- local employment. Howey Politics Indiana cuses the Daniels He says he has 6255 Evanston Ave. administration of worked to recruit “great Indianapolis, IN 46220 “waging war on candidates,” many of www.howeypolitics.com public schools,” whom impressed consul- resulting in teacher tants conducting ses- [email protected] layoffs that will continue with “drastic sions on campaign skills in Indianapo- 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 cuts” all around Indiana this fall. He lis last weekend. 'Washington: 703.248.0909 says a funding squeeze and over- Bauer says most Democrats 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 emphasis on vouchers and charter not seeking reelection were redistrict- schools endanger public education - ed into districts with another incum- its students, teachers and quality. He bent or with a much different area. He © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. expects many educators and parents says newly recruited candidates will All rights reserved. Photocopy- who voted Republican in 2010 to sup- have a better chance in some of those ing, Internet forwarding, fax- port House Democrats this time. districts. ing or reproducing in any form, n Bauer says passage of Also, the “tsunami” last time, whole or part, is a violation of what Democrats call an anti-union with all the Tea Party fervor, brought “right to work for less” will backfire on in some rather “unusual” Republicans, federal law without permission Republicans. He fought passage for good targets now that constituents from the publisher. v two years, leading House Democrats have seen them perform. in quorum-breaking to prevent a vote. Bauer mentions Republican While it finally passed, Bauer contends Rep. Bob Morris of Fort Wayne, who that workers, made aware during the made news by calling the Girl Scouts HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, March 1, 2012 a “radicalized organization” selling sex of all kinds and pro- and win a majority? moting abortion. How will voters like those cookies? If they really bounce back, probably so. If their President Obama, even if he doesn’t carry Indiana ranks instead shrink a lot, probably not. Either way, Bauer again, will help House Democrats, Bauer theorizes, bring- will be back in the Statehouse. Daniels won’t be back. But ing out voters in black precincts, where turnout was low in Bauer will remember him in many a speech. v 2010, and by campaigning to refute health care allegations that came to be believed two years ago. Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- With Bauer coming back to the legislature, will cades for the South Bend Tribune. he again be the Democratic leader? Or House speaker, if Democrats pull upsets to frustrate Republican redistricting ated by political campaigns to so-called automated “robo Howey/DePauw, from page 1 polling” as well as the four Howey/DePauw Indiana Battle- veys during the 2010 cycle, and only one during the 2011 ground Polls. Indiana mayoral race.” Following the Nov. 6 general election, Matthews, Howey said that respected Democratic and Re- Yang and Howey will return to DePauw University for a publican pollsters such as Matthews and Yang will provide seminar to compare final polling prior to the primary and Howey Politics Indiana subscribers, HPI’s media affiliates, general elections, and the actual election results. They will and voters an accurate process for gauging the political offer analysis of what voters decided, how and why. races and the issues that drive them. The Howey/DePauw Battleground Poll sequence “Matthews and Yang have polled extensively in will be the first of several collaborations involving Howey Indiana, know the state, and will provide bipartisan analy- and Matthews. sis of the candidates and issues that will shape the 2012 Howey Politics Indiana has progressed from simply elections,” Howey said. “HPI subscribers and the public will reporting election surveys published by other sources, to have at their disposal important data that will lead to ac- using a telemarketing firm in the 1990s and early 2000s, curate election forecasting.” to a partnership with Gauge Market Research for the 2008 At the March 6 event, Howey, Matthews and Yang elections. The four Indiana Howey-Gauge Polls adopted will offer an overview of the Indiana and national political American Association for Public Opinion Research method- environment, and how it will likely develop between March ology guidelines. CNN, ABC News and Real Clear Politics ac- and the May 8 primary. cepted the results. HPI published complete survey toplines, Matthews and Yang will then offer insights into and then matched its final pre-election polling results with poling changes that include a transition from landline the actual election results. telephone polls to mobile phones, the emergence of social In the summer of 2010, Howey met with Mat- media, and how those changes will come together in the thews, who proposed a “Battleground” polling regimen.