October 24, 2011 Volume 25 Issue 43 A weekly publication of ® Ux Consulting www.uxc.com The Leading Source For Timely Market Information Ux U3O8 Price: (10/24/11) $51.75 (-$1.00) Third Quarter Spot Uranium Ux LT U3O8 Price: (9/26/11) Review $64.00 The third quarter of 2011 was gener- middle of the month before settling down Ux Weekly Uranium Spot Prices ally a calm one that witnessed some at $52.50 by the end of the month. US$/lb U3O8 © UxC price volatility and a moderate but con- Although the spot price was volatile $75 sistent stream of spot volume, as the during the quarter, the price ended only $70 number of transactions increased con- $0.25 lower than where it began during siderably but at lower average volumes. the first week of the quarter. $65 Classic supply/demand market funda- Buying Activity – As discussed be- $60 mentals were displayed on a small scale low, utility buying declined somewhat, $55 during the quarter, as demand declined but overall activity was notably higher during those times that price increased, $50 than that posted during the second quar- but increased when price fell. The spot $45 ter. This is interesting given that on price fell to its lowest level for the year at repeated occasions a number of partici- $40 the end of August before rebounding pants discussed views that activity was $35 slightly by the end of the quarter. Below or appeared to be slowing considerably. 09 10 11 is a brief review of some of the other Over the past quarter, there were a highlights from last quarter. continued to increase this year, volume number of demand spurts followed by has been slower to increase as the av- Price – The spot Ux U O Price start- short pullbacks from the market by ac- 3 8 erage size of individual transactions has ed the first week of the quarter down tive buyers. A number of participants once again fallen. Total volume for the $1.50 to $52.75 per pound. The price also reported anticipating that the spot third quarter is 11.8 million pounds U3O8 edged back up the next week, but ended price would fall near the end of each equivalent, an increase from the second the month lower at $51.50. After a quick month, followed by expected rebounds quarter's 9.2 million pound level, but far first week increase in August, the price at the beginning of the next month. less than the 19 million pounds U3O8 continued to fall during the month, end- These expectations also impacted the reported during the first quarter. ing August at $49.00 per pound and timing of some activity, further contribut- hitting the lowest point to date this year. ing to the more sporadic nature of mar- These volume levels resulted in an In September, the spot price recovered ket activity over the quarter and the average transaction size of 123,000 somewhat at $54, as it peaked in the volatility in the spot price. pounds per deal for the third quarter, which is a new record low, falling below Comparison of Quarterly Spot Volumes Volume – After a new quar- the 131,000 pound record set back in Million pounds U3O8e© UxC terly record of 113 transactions 45 the first quarter of 1988 (a time in which was set during the first quarter, 40 1st Qtr only 12 transactions were reported for the second quarter slowed 2nd Qtr the entire quarter). The average trans- 35 3rd Qtr somewhat with only 68 transac- action size during the record transaction 30 tions concluded. However, pace set in the first quarter of this year 25 over the past quarter (including was 168,000 pounds and the average 20 the July and August summer size in the second quarter fell to 136,000 15 months), reported market activ- pounds. For the year, the average ity resulted in 96 spot transac- 10 transaction size has fallen to 144,000 tions, placing the third quarter 5 pounds U3O8e, down from the 186,000 in an all-time second place 0 pound level reported for 2010. If this activity position. While the 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 held throughout the remainder of the number of transactions has October 24, 2011 • 1 • Ux Weekly 25-43 year, it would set an annual low transac- pounds. While absent during the second Need & Method – For the past sev- tion size record. quarter, enriched uranium product (EUP) eral years, discretionary buying has sales posted a couple of transactions been a driving force in the spot market, Form – For the third quarter, UF6 ac- and represented about two percent of and activity levels have been fairly reac- tivity picked up slightly, accounting for the third quarter volume. tionary to price. While this trend contin- about 22% of the overall volume (2.6 ues, a higher level of spot activity over million pounds U3O8e), increasing in Buyers & Sellers – Utility buying re- the past quarter has been attributed to both percentage and absolute volume mained active last quarter, accounting actual demand (demand for specific over the second quarter, but down from for just over three million pounds U3O8e reactor requirements or specific delivery the first quarter levels. During the first of purchase volume and coming close to coverage). Over 37% of overall third part of the quarter, UF6 offers were that posted during the second quarter quarter volume has been attributed to tracking component pricing fairly closely. (3.7 million pounds U3O8e). However, actual need purchases, with the remain- This trend continued for most of the utility buying was down from the first ing 63% still considered discretionary. quarter, although UF6 offers were be- quarter (5.8 million pounds U3O8e). At This level is up from the 27% and 15% coming more competitive near the end of the three million pound level, utilities shares reported during the first two quar- the quarter. Straight conversion activity accounted for only 26% of the overall ters. With respect to the purchase fell during the quarter, with any potential third quarter volume, with traders/others method, most activity remains classified demand appearing to be filled with UF6 accounting for the lion's share at 65%, as off-market since participants continue purchases. Although UF6 volume was and producers making up the remaining to be very sensitive about having their up slightly, U3O8 remains the primary 9%. Activity from each of the purchase information broadcast to the industry. form accounting for a 76% share with groups remained fairly consistent volume totaling right at nine million throughout the quarter. On the sell side, Fourth Quarter Outlook – While traders/others slowing of spot activity has been dis- Quarterly Spot Volume vs. Ux Average Price remain the primary cussed a number of times over the past Million pounds U3O8eU© UxC S$/lb U3O8 selling group at several quarters, final spot volume tallies 24 Discretionary $120 71% of the overall have suggested otherwise. However, 22 $110 Actual volume, but pro- over the past several weeks, reported 20 $100 Avg Price 18 $90 ducers stepped up, spot volume has fallen with only about 16 $80 coming in at just three to four transactions added to the 14 $70 under 30% of the database per week. Bid levels have 12 $60 10 $50 volume. This level pulled back and fewer participants have 8 $40 is up from the 15% made buying interests known. As such, 6 $30 and 12% shares it may take lower prices to again spur 4 $20 2 $10 posted during the spot demand to keep volume levels up 0 $0 first and second as we approach the end of the year and, 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q quarters, respec- as such, price could retest the $50 level. 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 tively. Uranium Spot Market Statistics (Million pounds U3O8 equivalent, * includes activity through October) 2008 2009 2010 2011 3Q 4Q Yr. 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Yr. 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Yr. 1Q 2Q 3Q Yr.* Total Volume 13.6 12.4 43.3 8.0 24.3 11.2 10.2 53.8 13.1 9.6 13.3 13.6 49.6 19.0 9.2 11.8 41.4 # Transactions 61 62 217 28 83 55 59 225 57 51 69 90 267 113 68 96 287 Leadtime (mths) 2.6 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.2 2.3 2.2 2.7 1.9 2.9 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.5 Form U3O8 Total 6.8 10.8 29.9 5.9 16.5 7.3 8.2 38.0 9.3 7.0 10.4 11.3 38.0 12.4 7.6 9.0 29.7 UF6 Total 6.7 1.5 12.5 2.0 7.0 3.9 2.0 14.9 3.8 2.6 2.1 2.3 10.8 6.0 1.7 2.6 10.7 EUP Total 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 Need Actual 4.9 2.5 11.8 2.9 9.7 1.1 0.6 14.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.2 6.5 5.2 1.4 4.4 11.5 Discretionary 8.7 9.9 31.4 5.1 14.7 10.2 9.6 39.6 11.7 8.1 11.8 11.4 43.0 13.8 7.8 7.4 29.9 Method On-market 0.8 2.1 4.7 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.4 3.3 1.4 2.3 1.1 1.4 6.2 2.6 0.5 0.7 3.8 Off-market 12.8 10.3 38.5 7.7 23.2 10.8 8.8 50.6 11.7 7.4 12.2 12.1 43.4 16.4 8.8 11.2 37.6 October 24, 2011 • 2 • Ux Weekly 25-43 Ux U3O8 Price vs.