Repair and Rebuild BALANCING NEW MILITARY SPENDING FOR A THREE-THEATER STRATEGY Mackenzie Eaglen OCTOBER 2017 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE © 2017 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author(s). Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................1 Notes ....................................................................................................................................................................................3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 5 A Brief History of a Failed Barbell Investment Strategy .......................................................................................5 Repair and Rebuild ...................................................................................................................................................... 10 A Note on Methodology ...............................................................................................................................................21 Notes ................................................................................................................................................................................. 27 Large and Lethal: An Army for Three Theaters ...........................................................29 Force Structure and End Strength .......................................................................................................................... 32 Tailoring the Army Expansion ...................................................................................................................................33 Army Command and Control, Electronic Warfare, and Squad Capabilities .............................................. 36 Modernization ............................................................................................................................................................... 37 Army Missile Defense ................................................................................................................................................. 39 Notes ..................................................................................................................................................................................41 A Sensible Course to 350 Ships in Support of a Three-Hub Navy ...........................45 Power Projection: Aircraft Carriers and Amphibious Assault Ships ..............................................................50 Attack Submarines ........................................................................................................................................................51 Large Surface Combatants ......................................................................................................................................... 52 Small Surface Combatants and Mine Warfare ..................................................................................................... 54 UUVs/USVs ...................................................................................................................................................................... 56 Combat Logistics Fleet ............................................................................................................................................... 56 Carrier Air Wing ............................................................................................................................................................ 57 Non-Carrier Naval Air ................................................................................................................................................. 58 Munitions and More..................................................................................................................................................... 58 Notes .................................................................................................................................................................................60 iii REPAIR AND REBUILD Prepare the Marine Corps for High-Intensity Conflict .........................................65 Force Structure .............................................................................................................................................................. 65 Ground Forces ...............................................................................................................................................................67 Aviation ............................................................................................................................................................................68 Amphibious Forces .......................................................................................................................................................70 Notes ................................................................................................................................................................................. 72 Refocus the Air Force on Air and Space Superiority .................................................74 End Strength ..................................................................................................................................................................76 Airpower ......................................................................................................................................................................... 77 Space Control ...............................................................................................................................................................89 Notes .................................................................................................................................................................................94 Defense-Wide: Nukes, Missile Defense, and the Third Offset ............................ 101 Nuclear Weapons Enterprise ....................................................................................................................................101 Missile Defense ............................................................................................................................................................ 102 Directed Energy ........................................................................................................................................................... 105 Third Offset: Future Joint Command and Control ...........................................................................................106 The Price of Operating in the Arctic......................................................................................................................108 Notes ...............................................................................................................................................................................109 Conclusion and Full Funding Index ..................................................................................112 Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................121 About the Author .................................................................................................................... 125 iv Figures, Tables, and Text Boxes Figures Figure 1. Barbell Military Investment Strategy Is Unbalanced ................................................................................ 7 Figure 2. US Military Still Living off Reagan Buildup ................................................................................................. 7 Figure 3. $300 Billion in Weapons Investments Lost Under BCA ......................................................................... 10 Figure 4. FY2018 Base Defense Spending Proposals .................................................................................................. 11 Figure 5. AEI’s Repair and Rebuild: Proposed Additional Funding over Existing Plans, FY2018–22 ..........................................................................................................................................................................12 Figure 6. AEI’s Repair and Rebuild: Focus Area Funding over Existing Plans, FY2018–22 .............................13 Figure 7. Discretionary Spending Eaten by Entitlements, FY2018–27 ................................................................. 22 Figure 8. AEI’s Programmic Priorities: Build Sustainable Long-Term Fire Support Capacity ...................24 Figure 9. AEI’s Programmatic Priorities: Increase Army Ground Lethality ...................................................... 25 Figure 10. AEI’s Programmatic Priorities: Allow the Navy to Focus on Sea Control ...................................... 25 Figure 11. AEI’s Programmatic Priorities: Disperse Power Projection ................................................................26 Figure 12. AEI’s Programmatic Priorities: Embrace Stealth and Sensor Fusion en Masse ...........................26 Figure 13. New Permanent Army Forward Presence in Europe by 2023 Under Repair and Rebuild ..........