Copyright by Tara C. O 2010 The Dissertation Committee for Tara C. O Certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: Contingency on the Korean Peninsula: Collapse to Unification Committee: James K. Galbraith, Supervisor James B. Steinberg Bobby R. Inman R. Harrison Wagner Kenneth M. Matwiczak Contingency on the Korean Peninsula: Collapse to Unification by Tara C. O, B.A.; M.P.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin May, 2010 Dedication For my grandmothers, mom, dad, aunts, and uncles The views expressed in this dissertation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Acknowledgements I would like to extend my gratitude to the members of my dissertation committee—James Galbraith, Bobby Inman, James Steinberg, Harrison Wagner, and Ken Matwiczak—for their insightful comments, suggestions, and encouragement. I am particularly grateful to the Chair of the committee, James Galbraith, who has been enormously supportive throughout the process. At the Air Force Academy, I owe gratitude for support from my supervisors, colleagues, and friends. Colonel Thomas Drohan has been especially supportive even before I began the Ph.D. program. Eric Moody and Dorri Karolick painstakingly read my draft and offered valuable comments. I thank James Smith and the Institute for National Security Studies for funding my summer research. I also owe tremendous debt to those among Korea and Asia-Pacific specialists who have been my mentors and friends, especially Evans Revere and Katy Oh. I would also like to thank Guy Arrigoni, Peter Beck, Peter Brookes, John Burzynski, Robert Collins, Ralph Cossa, Stephen Costello, Robert Dujarric, L. Gordon Flake, Brad Glosserman, Stephen Gransbach, Mike Green, Peter Humphrey, Mike Keefe, Mindy Kotler, Kevin Madden, James Marshall, Derek Mitchell, Brian Myers, Chris Nelson, William Newcomb, Park Seung-je, Melvin Richmond, Yoichiro Sato, Warren Schweitzer, Steve Tharp, and the U.S. Army Foreign Area Officer (FAO) community. If I left anyone out, it is due to my oversight, as so many people have provided support through this endeavor. My cohorts at the LBJ School, Rahel Kahlert and Ted Aanstoos, endured through the process together and I appreciate all the support they have given me. Nancy Elder and Bob Penman at the University of Texas Library and IT Services, respectively, were eager to help me with IT and software matters. Finally, my family has always been there for me, providing me moral support. My grandmother has been an inspiration. My mom and aunts have been nothing but supportive. I am fortunate to have the support of so many people, who have made this dissertation possible. vi Contingency on the Korean Peninsula: Collapse to Unification Publication No._____________ Tara C. O, Ph.D. The University of Texas at Austin, 2010 Supervisor: James K. Galbraith A collapsed North Korea would pose a momentous test to the future of the region. The five regional powers—South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the United States— are ill-prepared for such an event, partly because of the act of planning for it would upset North Korea. However, the potential challenges of a collapse are too great to ignore. This study presents an historical and political analysis of the increasing risk that North Korea may collapse. A comparison with earlier cases suggests that triggers and indicators of collapse can be identified, including increasing cross-border information flows, defections, and the possible death or incapacitation of North Korea’s leader. Further, the large and growing economic disparity between North Korea and its neighbors, South Korea and China, points to likely consequences of collapse, including possible mass migration. The study then examines the roles of South Korea, China, the U.S., Japan, and Russia in the future of the Korean Peninsula; it concludes with a further consideration of the paradox of collapse planning, but argues that it would be better to run the risks entailed in the exercise than to be caught flatfooted when a collapse occurs. The analysis is based on interviews, surveys, and documents in English and Korean. vii Table of Contents List of Tables ....................................................................................................... xiv List of Figures ........................................................................................................xv CHAPTER 1: A COMING KOREAN TRAGEDY: A RISING RISK OF UNPLANNED-FOR COLLAPSE 1 A. Purpose of Research ...........................................................................................2 B. Research Hypothesis and Questions ..................................................................4 C. Assumptions and Terminology ..........................................................................5 Unification and South Korea ..........................................................................5 Unification and Reunification .........................................................................6 Korean Names and Spelling............................................................................6 Various ways to express ―Korea‖ ...................................................................7 Unification and South Korea ..........................................................................7 D. Structure of This Study ......................................................................................7 CHAPTER 2: THE UNIFICATION LITERATURE: A CRITICAL REVIEW 9 A. Korean Unification Scenarios ..........................................................................10 Scenario: Gradual and Peaceful (Confederation) ........................................19 Scenario: War...............................................................................................24 Scenario: Collapse .......................................................................................27 B. Unification Cost ...............................................................................................29 C. Background on Regional Powers and Bilateral Relations ...............................30 D. Unification Challenges and Responses ............................................................34 E. Summary...........................................................................................................36 CHAPTER 3: THINKING ABOUT COLLAPSE: FRAMEWORK AND METHODS 38 A. Data Collection ................................................................................................39 Interviews ......................................................................................................39 viii Discussions and Observations .......................................................................41 Conference Papers ........................................................................................41 Government Documents ...............................................................................42 Books and Documents in Korean .................................................................43 Books in English ...........................................................................................45 Surveys ..........................................................................................................46 Reports ..........................................................................................................47 Press Articles ................................................................................................49 Others ............................................................................................................49 B. Data Interpretation............................................................................................50 C. Limitations .......................................................................................................51 D. Interview Findings ...........................................................................................52 Scenarios .......................................................................................................52 Inter-Korea Relations ....................................................................................53 Korea‘s Bilateral Relations ...........................................................................54 CHAPTER 4: THINKING ABOUT COLLAPSE: INDICATORS AND TRIGGERS 57 A. Indicators of Collapse ......................................................................................58 Economic System and the Provision for Basic Needs ..................................58 External Assistance .......................................................................................61 Information Control ......................................................................................64 North Korea‘s Class System ................................................................67 Kim Jong-Il‘s Health.....................................................................................68 Elites .............................................................................................................70 Defectors .......................................................................................................71 C. Triggers ............................................................................................................72