World Scenario Series ResourceThe Future scarcity Availability of Natural Resources A New Paradigm for Global Resource Availability November 2014 © World Economic Forum 2014 - All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. The views expressed are those of certain participants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic Forum. REF 231014 2 The Future Availability of Natural Resources Contents Preface 3 Preface The availability of natural resources, particularly food, water, energy and minerals, is an important issue but also a 5 Executive Summary highly contested one, mostly because of the many different 7 Section I. Resource Availability – in perspectives and opinions held by both experts and the the Eye of the Beholder general public. 8 The contested nature of resource This report takes a novel approach to enhance the availability understanding of natural resource availability over a 20-year time frame. It combines an analysis of the important factors 10 Paradigms of resource availability of supply and demand at a global level, with an investigation 12 Rising costs into the different dominant “paradigms” that stakeholders use Kristel Van der Elst in discussing or assessing natural resources, with paradigms Senior Director, Head 13 Long-term abundance of Strategic Foresight, in this context being a combination of different, often deeply held assumptions. The report presents three scenarios that 14 Social injustice World Economic Forum challenge these paradigms under different future conditions, 15 The perils of incomplete and also reveals a number of important insights that come paradigms from a deeper understanding of the complex interactions inherent in resource flows. These aspects are summarized in 16 Section II. Reappraising the Drivers the report’s key messages (Box 1). of Resource Availability: A More Integrated Natural Resource Paradigm The World Economic Forum’s approach was developed at the request of stakeholders across several of the Forum’s 18 Underestimated drivers of supply communities. While desiring to collaborate on the long- and demand term availability of food, they rapidly discovered that they held conflicting views on this issue’s outlook and its drivers. 21 Nuanced drivers of growth The Forum’s multistakeholder community contributed to 22 Resource interconnections the creation of a more holistic and constructive view of the Nicholas Davis future availability of natural resources by providing data and 24 Distributional issues Director, Head perspectives from interviews and workshops, which involved of Europe, World more than 300 global experts and relevant stakeholders over 25 Environmental externalities Economic Forum two years. 25 Towards an integrated paradigm: glocal crises, contagion and It is hoped the frameworks and data presented herein will not environmental imperatives only continue to help clarify discussions and enhance mutual understanding between stakeholders on the challenges of 28 Section III. Challenging Scenarios resource availability, but also to assist with policy choices at the global, national and local levels – increasing the potential 31 Clash of interests for collaborative action where it is most urgently needed. 35 Alarming abundance 39 Challenges of transition 42 Section IV. Response Strategies 46 Conclusion 48 Annex: Process and Stakeholder Engagement 49 Bibliography 51 Acknowledgements and Project Team The Future Availability of Natural Resources 3 BoBox x1. Key1: messages Key messages Fragmented paradigms Stakeholders tend to view the future availability of natural resources through the lens of one of four divergent paradigms: #1 Focus on #2 Focus on #3 Focus on #4 Focus on threats of material rising costs abundance social justice exhaustion Insights A lack of recognition of the assumptions behind each of these paradigms leads to polarization amongst decision-makers and, in so doing, impedes effective resource management. Analysis of these assumptions surfaces five key insights supported by most stakeholders that are useful in resolving disputes: #1 Supply does not #2 Demand depends #3 Political, #4 Distributional #5 Tight feedback depend merely on more on economic economic, and social issues are underap - loops connect biophysical growth than interconnections preciated and can resource availability availability population growth are critical but often lead to systemic risks to climate and underestimated environmental change An integrated paradigm These insights allow us to construct a more integrated and holistic fifth paradigm: Multi-level Geographic and There are sufficient “Market” or “user” The key risks to connections amongst temporal scales are biophysical reserves availability is the availability stem from resources create tight critical variables for or potential primary concern, rising production feedback loops the availability of production of most and this requires an costs, the risks of between local and resources natural resources at understanding of how local shortages and global crises a global level to well policies, prices, disruptions to global past 2035 technology and flows from “above preferences affect ground” risks supply and demand Challenging scenarios As a means of challenging stakeholders’ four fragmented paradigms and highlighting the above insights, the report presents three challenging scenarios for the future of resource availability: Clash of Interests: Alarming Challenge of About evitable resource Abundance: Transition: scarcity that is triggered About the limits of About the difficulties by pre-emptive the desirability of and unintended geopolitical escalations resource abundance consequences involved in shifting to a low-carbon world Social and political innovations Out of the scenarios and analysis emerge the need for social and political innovation in four specific areas Understanding and Moving decision Managing and Driving more focus acknowledging makers further capitalising on on two sets of risks different paradigms towards integrated existing and potential stemming from and underlying specialisation – resource efficiencies resource use: impact assumptions engaging multiple using social and on the environment, disciplines in political levers and social disruption resource from distributional management issues 4 TheScenarios Future for Availability the Russian of Natural Federation Resources Copyright: World Economic Forum, 2014 Executive Summary The future availability of natural resources – defined Section II uses these assumptions and an analysis of global here as food, water, energy, and minerals – is critically data to present five cross-cutting and important insights: important. All individuals and nations require them to sustain current standards of living, as well as to increase economic 1. The role of technology, preferences, policies and prices is activity. Current and future resource availability is therefore a underestimated when forecasting supply and demand for political, economic, social and environmental issue that can natural resources. impact all stakeholder groups, often with disproportionate 2. Contrary to popular perceptions, population growth and indirect consequences. Given that resource-related is and will be far less significant in spurring resource supply chains are often global in nature, these consequences demand than economic growth and development in the may easily be underestimated in both scale and scope. period to 2035. 3. Physical, economic, political and social interconnections Perspectives on future resource availability are, between resources are growing, and will increasingly however, highly contested, mostly because natural influence resource availability, in both positive and resource supply and demand are hard to predict and negative ways. complex in nature (Box 2). Stakeholders across different 4. Defining natural resource availability often fails to consider sectors, industries, countries and disciplines often disagree how they are distributed, both between countries and on the relative urgency to act on different perceived resource between individuals within countries. risks, and the appropriate responses in mitigation. 5. Environmental factors create local and global risks to resource availability, while resource production and use This work, which was conducted over two years in are the primary factors in environmental risks. consultation with over 300 experts and decision-makers, aims to contribute to the debate by proposing a new From these insights, the report constructs a holistic paradigm for global resource availability. The hope is that paradigm aimed at overcoming the fragmented views a more integrated, future-oriented view can shift the typically held by stakeholders. This paradigm shows debate beyond a simplistic and polarized scarcity- that while the world has sufficient global stocks of natural abundance debate, and allow experts and decision- resources to meet most of society’s demands, the flow of makers to find dispassionate common ground to resource distribution is increasingly threatened by highly effectively tackle the challenge of resource availability. uncertain “above ground” factors. Similarly, local crises risk having disproportionate global effects on resources because Section I reveals that experts and decision-makers from both of the high level of interconnections