Journal of the British Interplanetary Society VOLUME 71 NO.6 JUNE 2018 Fermi Paradox Special Issue THE ORIGIN OF THE “FERMI PARADOX” Anthony R. Martin FERMI AND LOTKA: the Long Odds of Survival in a Dangerous Universe Kent A. Peacock SCENARIO BLOCK DIAGRAM ANALYSIS of the Galactic Evolution of Life Stephen Ashworth EXTREMOPHILES: The Resilience of Life under “Adverse” Conditions Robert O. J. Weinzierl LIFE BEFORE FERMI – Back to the Solar System David L. Clements ALIEN AIRCRAFT: Have they been observed on Earth? Alan Bond www.bis-space.com ISSN 0007-084X PUBLICATION DATE: 6 DECEMBER 2018 Submitting papers International Advisory Board to JBIS JBIS welcomes the submission of technical Rachel Armstrong, Newcastle University, UK papers for publication dealing with technical Peter Bainum, Howard University, USA reviews, research, technology and engineering in astronautics and related fields. 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Registered Charity No: 250556. Printed by Latimer Trend & Company Ltd, Estover Road, Plymouth, PL6 7PY, England. © 2018 British Interplanetary Society. No part of this magazine may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying or recording by any information storage or retrieval system without prior permission from the Publishers. CONTENTS VOLUME 71 NO.6 JUNE 2018 198 Introduction 200 THE ORIGIN OF THE “FERMI PARADOX” Anthony R. Martin 207 FERMI AND LOTKA: the Long Odds of Survival in a Dangerous Universe Kent A. Peacock 212 SCENARIO BLOCK DIAGRAM ANALYSIS of the Galactic Evolution of Life Stephen Ashworth 216 EXTREMOPHILES: The Resilience of Life under “Adverse” Conditions Robert O. J. Weinzierl 222 LIFE BEFORE FERMI – Back to the Solar System David L. Clements 225 ALIEN AIRCRAFT: Have they been observed on Earth? Alan Bond OUR MISSION STATEMENT The British Interplanetary Society promotes the exploration and use of space for the benefit of humanity, connecting people to create, educate and inspire, and advance knowledge in all aspects of astronautics. JBIS Vol 71 No.6 June 2018 197 INTRODUCTION Introduction by GERRY WEBB FBIS, President of the British Interplanetary Society he idea that there are worlds outside Earth which and extremophiles. I therefore thought it useful to return to may be inhabited has existed throughout history. the topic of the Fermi Paradox, review the new and improved However, Enrico Fermi was the first to voice the data and see if the topic can be freshened and tightened in any problem posed by the absence of evidence of intel- way. Accordingly, to test whether this could be done, and ably Tligent aliens on Earth clearly and with some reason. assisted by Alistair Scott I put together a symposium which was Since he had been a major player in bringing about the nu- run on the 28th November 2017. It was generally agreed that clear age, the first time in history that humans could see how this symposium was a success and produced much interesting the power necessary for interstellar travel could be generated, discussion. Four of the papers presented have been prepared it was but a short step for a man of his calibre to spot the vital for publication in this special JBIS issue and others may follow question ‘where is everybody?’ in future editions. The term ‘Fermi Paradox’ was not coined until later when The papers cover a broad range of topics within the Fermi the ‘evidence for absence’ had begun to build and a conven- Paradox envelope and I am pleased to say that Bond and Mar- ient way of referring to the problem was needed. Stated without tin are represented. The first two papers, by Martin and Pea- frills the paradox is: there should be evidence of (intelligent, cock respectively, were not presented at the symposium, but starfaring, communicative) aliens and there is not. Martin’s paper was stimulated by it and provides an excellent, The paradox usually provokes ‘why’ and ‘how’: Why should even necessary, introduction. Peacock’s paper was submitted there be aliens? How do we know there are no aliens? The first when this edition of JBIS was taking shape and fits perfectly is mainly addressed by pointing to human civilization as a typi- into its theme. cal development of intelligent star-faring life and the second by Radio telescopes were evolving at the same time as nucle- the increasing amount of astronomical evidence which, at first ar power but, because it was clearly much simpler to envisage, glance, would seem to indicate that the conditions necessary interstellar communication by signals was discussed (and at- for the development of civilisations such as our own are com- tempted) first, in the 60s and 70s, to a much greater extent than mon throughout the universe. physical transportation. I will not digress on what, in my opin- We cannot say for sure that intelligent technically capable ion, are the limitations and naivety of the former, save to say beings do not exist elsewhere in the universe, but the evidence that I remember arguing against any form of advertising our for their absence increases every year since Fermi first posed presence during the panel discussion at the 1977 BIS confer- the question in 1950. Nearly 70 years of increasingly sophis- ence referred to by our first author, Anthony R Martin, who ticated data on everything from extremophiles to extrasolar fixes very well the evolution and use of the term ‘Fermi-Par- planets has shown nothing so far. adox’ at about this time. The understandable reason for this In the 70s and 80s the BIS published much pioneer work early bias against physical transport is what are perceived as on Interstellar Studies such as ‘Project Daedalus’, World-ships the large timescales required for interstellar transport. How- and the Fermi Paradox. The main inspirers and leaders of this ever, these timescales are large only in terms of human life and work were Alan Bond and Tony Martin.