Cheltenham Festival Winning Profiles 2016 (Races to be run Tuesday 15th March to Friday 18th March) www.againstthecrowd.co.uk Key trends point to Festival winners The Cheltenham Festival represents the pinnacle of National Hunt racing. The G1 races that take place at the venue every March are designed to find the best horses in specific divisions of the jump racing game. The Champion Hurdle run on the Tuesday is designed to find the best 2 mile hurdler. The Queen Mother Champion Chase is designed to find the best horse over the bigger obstacles at the minimum distance of 2 miles. The race is run on the Wednesday of the Festival. On Thursday Cheltenham Stages the World Hurdle designed to find the best staying hurdler over a trip of 3 miles. Thursday also plays host to the Ryanair Chase - a race which has become a Championship event for chasers specialising in a trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs. On the Friday of the Festival, we have the Gold Cup - the staying chasers' Championship event run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs. In between we have big G1 races for novice hurdlers and novice chasers over a variety of distances. Even the mares and the bumper horses get a championship event to call their own. These races are difficult to read. All the major horses – at least those which are fit - tend to show up. All the major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. The championship races are invariably run at a red hot pace and this, in combination with the specific demands of the track, means that only horses at the top of their game, horses tuned to the moment and horses in receipt of luck in running can prevail on the day. A horse can run the race of its life at the Cheltenham Festival – and it can still get beaten. So how do we solve these betting puzzles? It's never ‘easy’ to solve these races - but fortunately help is at hand - in the form of historical evidence. Over the years specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time in the same races. They share certain characteristics. They have similar qualifications and credentials. They have achieved similar things. Their careers and campaigns have been constructed around common themes. Conversely, horses who fail to meet the criteria laid down by these longstanding trends tend to fall short. Trends will not always point you directly to a winner. But they will help you split a field into the horses who fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least. And trends can help you reach betting decisions. No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another. We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. Where some trends are concerned we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason. The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and focus the way we look at or get into or go about finding angles on specific races. In this report you will find comprehensive stats for 12 of the top G1 races set to be run at this season’s Cheltenham Festival. I call these documents Winning Race Profiles – and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big races. These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile them. That’s why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I use them – alongside my other methods – in my own analysis of the big races. And that’s why I’m handing them over to you. They don’t represent some kind of magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case of A + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data – much of which you won’t find elsewhere. Take a look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate those that seem strongest or most important. Then measure the horses set to go to post in this season’s renewal against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as potential candidates. It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very least, you will have very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of the horses set to run. That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the market is completely unaware of. Considering those are the people you are betting against, it is clear that the information contained in our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very real knowledge edge. What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case of each to his own. Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine. Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am always most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the Profile boxes but which are being overlooked by the wider market. I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. How you use the information is pretty much up to you. All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if you use it to bag a winner at this year’s Festival, then so much the better. Let us know how you get on. Best wishes Nick Pullen February 2016 The Profile of a Supreme Novice Hurdle winner The Cheltenham Festival gets underway with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – a race for the best young hurdlers around and one that is generally won by a horse destined for a career at the top of the jumps game. This is a big field affair with an average of 19 runners per year since 1997. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 2 mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yo runners carry 11-00 with the older runners carrying 11-07. Mares benefit from a 7lb allowance. Yards with form – Willie Mullins has produced 5 winners of this race since 1995 – including each of the last 3 renewals. Nicky Henderson hasn’t managed a winner this century but is probably due – having saddled 10 placed horses over that period. Paul Nicholls and Noel Meade have saddled two winners apiece since 2000. Good yards with the best ammunition tend to prevail. Philip Hobbs has a winner and two places from his last 11 participants. In the plate – Ruby Walsh has been the dominant force in the saddle over recent years. He has won the race 5 times and placed once since the turn of the century. Market pointers – Twelve of the last 18 winners came out of the front 3 in the market. But there is generally something for the fans of bigger-priced horses to shoot for with 22 of the last 45 winners and placed horses going off at double- figure SPs. I’ve studied the last 18 renewals of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered…. Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most recent renewals)…. 17 of the last 18 winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle races 17 had never finished outside the first 3 in a completed hurdle race 17 had scored career best RPR in one of last 2 races 17 had scored career best RPR over hurdles at trips between 16f and 18f 16 had won multiple hurdle races 16 had won last time out (12 had won their last 2 starts over hurdles) 16 had scored a career best RPR over hurdles of 137+ (10 of the last 12 winners had scored 142+) 16 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.31 or less. Get the CD figures for this season’s runners here: http://www.pedigreequery.com/ 15 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 100+ over hurdles 15 had raced between 2 and 4 times over hurdles 15 of the last 18 winners had won a hurdle race in a field of 11 or more 15 of the last 18 winners were aged 5- or 6-years-old 14 had raced in the last 6 weeks – give or take a day or two 14 of the last 18 winners were bred in Ireland or Great Britain 14 were sent off favourite in their final prep race 12 of the last 14 winners had contested a hurdle race worth more than £10k 11 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 9 times in total (flat, NHF or hurdle races) 8 of the last 12 winners had contested a G1 or G2 hurdle race (7 produced a top 3 finish) 8 of the last 9 winners to race over hurdles at 18f+ had won at that trip Just one of the last 18 winners had run in a handicap hurdle race There have been 2 winning mares in the last 18 years Apply those statistical tests to all the runners set to go to post in this season’s renewal of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.