Clark Public Utilities Conservation Potential Assessment Final Report September 3, 2019 Prepared by: 570 Kirkland Way, Suite 100 Kirkland, Washington 98033 A registered professional engineering corporation with offices in Kirkland, WA and Portland, OR Telephone: (425) 889‐2700 Facsimile: (425) 889‐2725 September 3, 2019 Mr. Larry Blaufus Clark Public Utilities P.O. Box 8900 Vancouver, Washington 98668 SUBJECT: 2019 Conservation Potential Assessment – Final Report Dear Mr. Blaufus: Please find attached the final report summarizing the 2019 Clark Public Utilities Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA). This report covers the 20‐year period from 2020 through 2039. The potential has decreased from the 2017 CPA, largely due to standards impacting many residential lighting measures and changes in the avoided cost assumptions. We would like to thank you and your staff for the excellent support in developing and providing the baseline data for this project. Best Regards, Ted Light Senior Project Manager 570 Kirkland Way, Suite 100 Kirkland, Washington 98033 Telephone: 425 889‐2700 Facsimile: 425 889‐2725 A registered professional engineering corporation with offices in Kirkland, WA and Portland, OR Contents CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................................... I LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................. III LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................................... III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2 TARGETS AND ACHIEVEMENT ........................................................................................................................................... 6 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................................. 7 OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................................................................. 7 ELECTRIC UTILITY RESOURCE PLAN REQUIREMENTS .............................................................................................................. 7 ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ACT ............................................................................................................................................ 7 OTHER LEGISLATIVE CONSIDERATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 8 STUDY UNCERTAINTIES ................................................................................................................................................... 8 REPORT ORGANIZATION ................................................................................................................................................ 10 CPA METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................... 11 BASIC MODELING METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................. 11 TYPES OF POTENTIAL .................................................................................................................................................... 12 AVOIDED COST ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 DISCOUNT AND FINANCE RATE ....................................................................................................................................... 17 RECENT CONSERVATION ACHIEVEMENT ............................................................................................................ 18 CURRENT CONSERVATION PROGRAMS ............................................................................................................................. 19 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................................. 22 CUSTOMER CHARACTERISTICS DATA ................................................................................................................. 23 RESIDENTIAL ............................................................................................................................................................... 23 COMMERCIAL .............................................................................................................................................................. 24 INDUSTRIAL ................................................................................................................................................................ 25 DISTRIBUTION EFFICIENCY ............................................................................................................................................. 28 RESULTS – ENERGY SAVINGS AND COSTS ........................................................................................................... 29 ACHIEVABLE CONSERVATION POTENTIAL .......................................................................................................................... 29 ECONOMIC ACHIEVABLE CONSERVATION POTENTIAL .......................................................................................................... 30 SECTOR SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 31 COST ......................................................................................................................................................................... 38 SCENARIOS ....................................................................................................................................................... 41 SCENARIO SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................... 44 SAVINGS SHAPE RESULTS .................................................................................................................................. 45 PEAK DEMAND SAVINGS ................................................................................................................................... 47 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................ 50 METHODOLOGY AND COMPLIANCE WITH STATE MANDATES ................................................................................................ 50 CONSERVATION TARGETS .............................................................................................................................................. 51 NOTE ON UNCERTAINTY ................................................................................................................................................ 51 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................................... 52 APPENDIX I – ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................. 53 APPENDIX II – GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................... 54 APPENDIX III – DOCUMENTING CONSERVATION TARGETS ................................................................................. 56 Clark Public Utilities—Conservation Potential Assessment i APPENDIX IV – AVOIDED COST AND RISK EXPOSURE ......................................................................................... 60 AVOIDED ENERGY VALUE .............................................................................................................................................. 60 AVOIDED COST ADDERS AND RISK ................................................................................................................................... 63 SUMMARY OF SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................................................................... 67 APPENDIX V – RAMP RATE DOCUMENTATION ................................................................................................... 68 APPENDIX VI – MEASURE LIST ........................................................................................................................... 73 APPENDIX VII – ANNUAL