The Pacific Community Initiative Alice Ba, David Bulman, Carla Freeman, Gui Yongtao, Hu Ran, David M. Lampton, Li Wei, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Andrew Mertha, Yun Sun, Wang Jisi, Wu Xiangning and Zhao Minghao Foreign Policy Institute THE US AND CHINA IN ASIA : Mitigating Tensions and Enhancing Cooperation The U.S. and China in Asia: Mitigating Tensions and Enhancing Cooperation Alice D. Ba Oriana Skylar Mastro David J. Bulman Andrew Mertha Carla P. Freeman Yun Sun Gui Yongtao Wang Jisi Hu Ran Wu Xiangning David M. Lampton Zhao Minghao Li Wei A publication of the Pacific Community Initiative ii THE U.S. AND CHINA IN ASIA: MITIGATING TENSIONS AND ENHANCING COOPERATION Alice D. Ba, David J. Bulman, Carla P. Freeman, Gui Yongtao, Hu Ran, David M. Lampton, Li Wei, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Andrew Mertha, Yun Sun, Wang Jisi, Wu Xiangning, and Zhao Minghao, eds. The U.S. and China in Asia: Mitigating Tensions and Enhancing Cooperation. Washington, DC: Pacific Community Initiative, 2019. ©2019 Pacific Community Initiative Pacific Community Initiative Johns Hopkins SAIS 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW, R608 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202-663-5809 Contents Foreword . v Contributors . vi Introduction: Hinges Upon Which History in Asia Will Swing . 8 David M. Lampton Part I: Traditional Security Summary . 19 Managing U.S.-China Gray Zone Competition and Mitigating Security Tensions in the Asia-Pacific Region . 21 Gui Yongtao and Li Boran Diminishing Returns in U.S.-China Security Cooperation . .. 32 Oriana Skylar Mastro Part II: Economic Engagement Summary . 44 Sustaining the U.S.-China Economic Relationship to Avoid a Two-Bloc Global Economic Order . 47 David J. Bulman Back to the Past? The Tragedy of the End of Economic Engagement . 60 Li Wei Part III: Nontraditional and Transnational Security Summary . 80 From Threats to Opportunities? Nontraditional Security Challenges and Sino-American Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific . 83 Carla P. Freeman More Common Action, Less Confrontation? Tackling Nontraditional Security Challenges: the U.S. and China in the Asia-Pacific . 108 Wu Xiangning iv THE U.S. AND CHINA IN ASIA: MITIGATING TENSIONS AND ENHANCING COOPERATION Part IV: Cultural Engagement and Ideas Summary . 129 The Myth of Ideological Tensions Between China and the United States . 131 Hu Ran Contests of Ideas: U.S.-China Competition in the Asia-Pacific . 147 Yun Sun Part V: Regional Governance and Institution Building Summary . 159 U.S.-China Relations and Regional Institutions: Challenges and Paths Ahead . 162 Alice Ba Navigating the Interplay between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Indo-Pacific Strategy . 174 Zhao Minghao Conclusion: How to Move Forward . 189 Wang Jisi Foreword As the Asia-Pacific region rapidly becomes the world’s economic center, the relationship between its two major economic and military powers—China and the United States— has increasingly come under stress. The Pacific Community Initiative (PCI), a collabo- rative effort led by the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS) at Peking University and funded by the China–United States Exchange Foundation, explores how the U.S. and China can cooperate to ensure medium- and long-term peace and prosperity by promot- ing effective institutionalization in the Asia-Pacific region. The present monograph focuses on how the United States and China can mitigate ten- sions and enhance cooperation in key areas of interaction, thereby establishing a foun- dation for a broader community initiative in the future. The monograph results from extensive research as well as in-depth and frank discussions between leading American and Chinese scholars at four bilateral working group meetings in Beijing, Hong Kong, and Washington, D.C. The resulting chapters focus on five issue areas: traditional secu- rity, economic engagement, nontraditional security, cultural and people-to-people ex- change, and regional governance and institutions. In each functional area, one American and one Chinese PCI working group member have each contributed an original chapter and jointly summarized their key areas of agreement and disagreement. The current publication is an interim product of our project progress to date, reflecting our initial ideas and conclusions; it is not the final word. We look forward to develop- ing the underlying arguments and policy recommendations through further bilateral working group discussions as well as engagement with the broader academic and policy communities. David J. Bulman Hu Ran U.S. Director China Director Pacific Community Initiative Pacific Community Initiative Johns Hopkins SAIS IISS, Peking University v Contributors Alice D. Ba is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware. David J. Bulman is the Jill McGovern and Steven Muller Assistant Professor of Inter- national Affairs and China Studies and the U.S. Director of the Pacific Community Initiative at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Carla P. Freeman is Associate Research Professor of China Studies and Executive Direc- tor of the Foreign Policy Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Gui Yongtao is Associate Dean and Associate Professor at the School of International Studies and Vice President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Pe- king University. Hu Ran is Research Associate and Director of the Asia-Pacific Community Initiative at the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University. David M. Lampton is Professor Emeritus and former Hyman Professor and Director of SAIS-China and China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Li Boran is Research Assistant at the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University. Li Wei is Professor at the School of International Studies and a Senior Research Asso- ciate at the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China. Oriana Skylar Mastro is Assistant Professor of Security Studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Yun Sun is Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. vi CONTRIBUTORS vii Wang Jisi is Professor at the School of International Studies and President of the Insti- tute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University. Wu Xiangning is Assistant Professor of the Department of Government and Public Policy at the University of Macau. Zhao Minghao is Senior Fellow and Deputy Chief for Strategic Studies at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies in the International Department of the Cen- tral Committee of the Communist Party of China. 8 THE U.S. AND CHINA IN ASIA: MITIGATING TENSIONS AND ENHANCING COOPERATION Introduction: Hinges Upon Which History in Asia Will Swing David M. Lampton According to some estimates, by 2020 the Asia-Pacific region will account for two-thirds of global GDP and half of global trade, demonstrating the imminent economic cen- trality of this region. Also by 2020, the region’s share of global military spending will likely have grown to nearly three-fourths. Major wars or strategic confrontations in this region, if they occur, could prove catastrophic. And questions of sustainable develop- ment and ecological survival cannot begin to be addressed without the cooperation of nations in this region, not least the United States and China. For the world as a whole, the core strategic question for the next fifty years (at least) is whether or not the Asia- Pacific region can sustain and foster the conditions for growth and cooperation in the face of unprecedented geopolitical, geoeconomic, and environmental changes. The tectonic plates of big-power economic and military strength are shifting as we enter the third decade of the new millennium. Expectations about the future are climbing in some nations and declining in others, meaning that the conditions that brought us the last fifty years of progress in the Asia-Pacific cannot be assumed to continue for the next fifty. Indeed, there is every indication that those prior conditions already have been overtaken by events. This volume, and the larger Pacific Community Initiative (PCI) of which it is a component, is aimed at understanding the era into which we are entering and helping shape a better future for everyone. The constituent papers that comprise this volume represent one of the outcomes of a series of bilateral meetings convened approximately every six months by the SAIS- Peking University Bilateral Working Group of the PCI. The first meeting of the work- ing group occurred in October 2017 at SAIS, the second at Peking University in April 2018, the third at SAIS in November 2018, and the fourth session convened in Hong Kong in April 2019. Both institutions, SAIS and Peking University, wish to thank the China–United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF) for the program support that has 8 INTRODUCTION: HINGES UPON WHICH HISTORY IN ASIA WILL SWING 9 made the PCI possible. SAIS and Peking University were responsible for selecting their respective participants and the participants alone are responsible for the content of their papers that follow. Professor Wang Jisi, president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, and David M. Lampton, professor emeritus and former director of China Studies at SAIS and current Senior Advisor to PCI at SAIS, have overseen the dialogue process and the preparation of this document. We wish to thank David Bulman and Hu Ran of SAIS and Peking University respectively for their management of this challenging project. The PCI had its origins in a thought that Dr. Henry Kissinger expressed in his book, On China. Kissinger noted that Europe had been the wellspring of two World Wars in the first half of the twentieth century and that, by way of comparison, no major hot wars had occurred in Europe in the second half of the twentieth century.