UNIDIR An Illusion of Safety: Challenges of Nuclear Weapon Detonations for United Nations Humanitarian Coordination and Response Detonations for United Nations Humanitarian Coordination Weapon An Illusion of Safety: Challenges Nuclear There is renewed and deep international concern about the consequences of the detonation of nuclear weapons in populated areas. Prompted by findings from international conferences on their humanitarian impacts held in Norway in March 2013 and Mexico in February 2014, this UNIDIR study explores the challenges for activation and operation of the humanitarian system in a range of plausible, illustrative nuclear weapon detonation scenarios. As a scoping exercise the study identifies specific issues that warrant further policy and operational attention in order to enhance civilian protection from nuclear weapons. It suggests steps the humanitarian system could take to better plan for such eventualities, as well as the redoubling of efforts to prevent nuclear weapons ever being used again in populated areas—whether deliberately or accidentally. An Illusion of Safety Challenges of Nuclear Weapon Detonations UNITED NATIONS ISBN: 978-92-9045-203-4 for United Nations Humanitarian Coordination and Response Printed at United Nations, Geneva 1410039 (E) – August 2014 – 2,000 UNIDIR/2014/6 United Nations Publication Sales No. GV.E.14.0.1 UNIDIR/2014/6 An Illusion of Safety Challenges of Nuclear Weapon Detonations for United Nations Humanitarian Coordination and Response John Borrie and Tim Caughley UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Geneva, Switzerland New York and Geneva, 2014 The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)—an autonomous institute within the United Nations—conducts research on disarmament and security. UNIDIR is based in Geneva, Switzerland, the centre for bilateral and multilateral disarmament and non-proliferation negotiations, and home of the Conference on Disarmament. The Institute explores current issues pertaining to the variety of existing and future armaments, as well as global diplomacy and local tensions and conflicts. Working with researchers, diplomats, government officials, NGOs and other institutions since 1980, UNIDIR acts as a bridge between the research community and governments. UNIDIR’s activities are funded by contributions from governments and donor foundations. www.unidir.org About the cover Satellite image of Mexico City courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. Note The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the individual authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the United Nations, UNIDIR, its staff members or sponsors. UNIDIR/2014/6 Copyright © United Nations, 2014 All rights reserved UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATIONS Sales No. GV.E.14.0.1 ISBN 978-92-9045-203-4 eISBN 978-92-1-056894-4 iii CONTENTS Foreword ......................................................................................................................................................................... vi About the authors ....................................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................... ix Executive summary ..................................................................................................................................................... xi Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Structure of the study ................................................................................................................................................ 1 About risk ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Part 1: Context for the study .................................................................................................................................. 5 Definition of terms ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 Nuclear detonations ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Nuclear accidents and events ..................................................................................................................... 5 The United Nations “system” ....................................................................................................................... 6 International assistance ................................................................................................................................. 6 Humanitarian definitions ............................................................................................................................... 7 Contextual overview ................................................................................................................................................... 8 The political context ....................................................................................................................................... 15 The United Nations context ......................................................................................................................... 16 The Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement ........................................................................................ 17 Study methodology .................................................................................................................................................... 17 Methods and elements of the study ......................................................................................................... 17 Potential challenges to validity ................................................................................................................... 18 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Part 2: Nuclear weapon detonations .................................................................................................................. 19 Nuclear versus conventional weapon explosions ........................................................................................... 19 Why nuclear explosions are different .................................................................................................................. 19 How a nuclear chain reaction occurs ................................................................................................................... 20 Types of nuclear weapons ....................................................................................................................................... 21 What happens in a nuclear explosion? ................................................................................................................ 22 Effects .............................................................................................................................................................................. 23 Types of consequences ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Death and destruction ................................................................................................................................... 28 Response and disruption costs .................................................................................................................. 31 Challenges for humanitarian response ................................................................................................................ 33 Three scenarios: single nuclear detonations in rural areas .......................................................................... 33 Three scenarios: single nuclear detonations in urban areas ....................................................................... 35 A 1kt nuclear weapon groundburst detonation .................................................................................... 37 20kt nuclear weapon detonation (groundburst and airburst) ....................................................... 38 500kt airburst detonation ............................................................................................................................ 39 Scenario: a regional nuclear war in South Asia ................................................................................................ 43 Displacement ..................................................................................................................................................... 43 Nuclear war-induced climate change .....................................................................................................