THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 1962 CL 39/2 'TIE A E t OC AND 4 GRICUL 4 TIRE FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS ROME 1962 The statistical material inthis publication has been prepared from theinfirmation available to FAO up to 30 June 1962 The designations employed and the presenta- tion of the material inthis publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country or territory or qf its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. © FAO 1962 Printed in Italy CONTENTS Foreword Summary II.World review and outlook 13 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 13 Longer-term trends in agricultural production in relation to population 15 Regional agricultural production 17 Main agricultural commodities 23 Fishery production 24 Forestry production 25 CHANGES IN STOCKS 27 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND THE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 30 FOOD SUPPLIES AND CONSUMPTION 32 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 34 Volume of imports into non-Communist areas 36 Imports into Mainland China,the U.S.S.R., and eastern Europe 40 Prices in world markets 41 Agricultural export earnings 45 Exports under special terms 47 International trade policies 49 FARM PRICES AND INCOMES 50 CONSUMER PRICES 54 AGRICULTURAL POLICIES AND DEVELOPMENT PLANS 56 North America 58 Western Europe 60 Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. 65 Australia and New Zealand 68 Latin America 69 Far East 72 Near East 75 Africa 77 Fishery policies 81 Forest policies 82 SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK 84 Agricultural production outlook for 1962/63 85 Commodity prospects 85 III. The role of forest industries in the attack on economic underdevelopment 88 SOME ASPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY 88 Development aims - a political choice 89 Financial appraisal and social evaluation 89 The data needed for investment decisions 90 THE PRODUCTS OF FOREST INDUSTRIES IN THE ECONOMY PRESENT AND FUTURE 91 Structural characteristics of demand 91 Consumption, production and trade 93 Dynamic characteristics of demand 94 Future requirements and alternative supply possibilities 95 Summary 97 CHARACTERISTICS OF FOREST INDUSTRIES 98 The global pattern 98 The sawm Wing industry 98 The pulp and paper industry 101 Plywood, fibreboard and particle board 103 Miscellaneous and secondary forest industries 105 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FOREST BASE 106 Some characteristics of forestry 106 The logging phase 108 Some advantages in hei ent in forestry 108 FEATURES OF FOREST INDUSTRIES RELEVANT TO DEVELOPMENT 109 Demand expansion and import-saving effect 109 Characteristics of the raw material and locational factors 110 Technological advantages of forest industries 110 Dmand forforest products :indirect advantages and external economies 111 Summary 112 RESOURCES, TECHNOLOGY AND RESEARCH 113 Variety of forest reserves 113 Recent technological trends 114 Where research is lagging 115 Making capital go further 116 DETERMINING THE ROLE OF FORESTRY 118 Esthnating the demand for wood 119 Estimating the demand for the noncrop utilities of forests 119 Estimating the size and the nature of the forest resource 120 vi Appraising the availability of production factors 121 Determining the plan and the measures to be adopted 122 PLANNING FOR FOREST INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT 123 Time horizons for planning 124 Getting and using resource data 124 Planning demand 125 The importance of infrastructure 126 Planning for specific areas within a country 126 Autarchy or economic integration 126 An organizational need 127 The choice 128 IV. The livestock industry in less developed countries 129 INTRODUCTION 129 The anatomy of hunger 129 Poverty inhibits production 129 Population and economic development 130 Livestock production potential 131 Livestock in relation to general agricultural develop:u.ent 131 Animal population pressure 132 Disparities in animal productivity 132 INCREASING THE WORLD'S SUPPLY OF ANIMAL PROTEIN 133 Animal nutrition 134 Livestock/plant interrelationship 135 Fodder conservation and gr azing management 136 Importation of exotic breeds of livestock 136 Use of indigenous breeds ofI ivestock 137 Crossbreeding 137 Disease survey, control and eradication 138 Education 140 Marketing 142 LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS 143 Cattle 143 Sheep 145 Goats 145 Poultry 145 Pigs 146 Buffaloes 146 Other types of 1 ivestock 147 Hides and skins 148 REGIONAL TRENDS IN ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND HEALTH 148 Africa 148 Near East 149 Nomadism 150 Far East 151 Latin America 153 North America 154 Oceania 155 Western Europe 155 THE NEXT DECADE 156 Dynamics of development 156 Outlets 158 Improved animal health 158 Improved nutrition and breeding 159 Use of food surpluses 159 Demand 160 RITTRENCES 160 Annex tables Indices of total food production, by countries and regions 163 Indices of per caput food production, by countries and regions 165 World production of major commodities 167 World exports of major commodities 168 Western Europe: Production of major commodities 169 Western Europe: Exports and imports of major commodities 170 Eastern Europe and U.S.S.R.: Production of major commodities 171 Eastern Europe and U.S.S.R.: Exports and imports of major commodities 172 U.S.S.R.: Production and exports of forest products 173 North America: Production of major commodities 174 North America: Exports and imports of major commodities 175 Oceania: Production of major commodities 176 Oceania: Exports and imports of major commodities 176 Latin America: Production of major commodities 177 Latin America: Exports and imports of major commodities 178 Far East (excluding Mainland China): Production of major commodities 179 Far East (excluding Mainland China): Exports and imports of major commodities 180 Near East: Production of major commodities 181 Near East: Exports and imports of major commodities 181 Africa: Production of major commodities 182 Africa: Exports and imports of major commodities 183 Total catch (live weight) of fish, crustaceans and mollusks in selected countries 184 United States Commodity Credit Corporation: Quantity and value of investment 186 Food supplies available for human consumption in selected countries 137 Calorie and protein content of national average food supplies in selected countries 190 I4A. Regional and worldindicesof volume and value of agriculturalirnports,by commodity groups 193 14B. Regional and worldindicesof volume and value of agriculturalexports, by commodity groups 195 15. World average export unit values of agricultural products 197 OU List of figures II- Trends in regional food production in relation to population growth,prewar to 1961/62 15 II- 2.Changes in total and per caput food production, 1959/60-1961/62average in rela- tion to prewar period 16 II- 3.World production of major agricultural commodities, prewar to 1961/62 23 II- 4.Indices of the main stocks of agricultural commodities in the world and in North America 30 II- 5.Estimated per caput food production, net trade and supplies, by regions 33 II- 6.Estirnated per caput calorie supplies, by regions, 1956-58 average 34 II- 7.Distribution of world agricultural exports and imports, by volume, 1959-61 average 36 II- 8.Indices of volume of agricultural imports, by regions and comrnodity groups 37 II- 9.Average export unit values (average prices) of selected agricultural products in world trade 44 11-10. Actual and hypothetical increase in the volume of agricultural exports from indus- trial and primary producing regions, 1952-53 average to1960-61 average 47 II-11.Changes in indices of prices paid and received by farmers and in relationship between the two indices, 1961 in relation to 1952-53 average 51 III-1.Forest products flow chart 99 ix FOREWORD Broadly it may be said that the key problems of food and agricultureinthe less developed regions of the world are, first, underproduction, hunger andtnalnutrition, and secondly, the continuing decline of agricultural priceson world markets, which erodes the earning capacity of these regions for foreign exchange and their potentialities foreconomic growth.In contrast, the problems of the economically more developed countriesare more often excess production in relation to commercial outlets, leadingto the accumulation of surplus stocks and, closely related, the social discontents resulting from the disparities of income betiveen farm people and those in other occupations though rural poverty, it goes without saying, is still more acute, if less articulate, in countries ata less ad- vanced stage of economic development. 111 regard to these problems, the year 1961162 could be considered as one of promise rather than achievement.There were encouraging signs of an increased world recogni- tion of the importance of agricultural development, both in itself and as a key component of general economic growth. There were signs, too, of a greater determination to tackle the problems of agriculture before they became still more acute. On the other hand, the year's developments in production and in international trade contributed littleto their long-term solution. On the most basic problem of all, that of hunger, two developments may be men- tioned.In the less developed countries themselves there was a considerable e.xtension of planning for agricultural development, and particularly of plans closely integrated into those for general economic development.While it would be too optimistic to suppose that all these plans will be fully realized, they at least indicate a greater awareness of