ELECTORAL SECURITY ASSESSMENTS BANGLADESH, ZIMBABWE, AND COLOMBIA Task Order: DFD-I-00-05-00197-00 March 2010 This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Creative Associates International, Inc. ELECTORAL SECURITY ASSESSMENTS BANGLADESH, ZIMBABWE, AND COLOMBIA A Framework for Electoral Security Assessments March 23, 2010 Prepared by Creative Associates International, Inc. For The United Stated Agency for International Development Jeff Fischer Karen Kaplan Elisabeth Bond The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) or the United States Government. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...............................................................................................................................3 BANGLADESH...........................................................................................................................................3 ZIMBABWE ................................................................................................................................................7 COLOMBIA ............................................................................................................................................. 12 I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 19 II. BANGLADESH ...................................................................................................................................... 20 A. Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 20 B. History of Electoral Violence ............................................................................................................... 22 C. Profile of Electoral Threats ................................................................................................................. 24 D. Program Objectives, Counterparts and Planning ............................................................................... 27 E. Electoral Security System Programming Initiatives ............................................................................ 30 F. Evaluation Framework for USAID Programs ..................................................................................... 33 G. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 34 III. ZIMBABWE ........................................................................................................................................... 34 A. Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 34 B. History of Electoral Violence ............................................................................................................... 36 C. Profile of Electoral Threats ................................................................................................................. 37 D. Program Objectives, Counterparts and Planning ............................................................................... 42 E. Electoral Security System Programming Initiatives ............................................................................ 45 F. Evaluation Framework for USAID Programs ...................................................................................... 49 G. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 50 IV. COLOMBIA ........................................................................................................................................... 50 A. Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 50 B. History of Electoral Violence ............................................................................................................... 51 C. Profile of Electoral Threats ................................................................................................................. 52 D. Program Objectives, Partners and Planning ...................................................................................... 57 E. Electoral Security System Programming Initiatives ............................................................................ 60 F. Evaluation Framework for USAID Programs ..................................................................................... 64 G. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 65 V. COMPARATIVE POINTS FROM ASSESSMENT ................................................................................. 65 VI. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................... 67 ANNEX I: SOURCES AND MEETINGS .................................................................................................... 69 ANNEX II: ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................. 74 ANNEX III: VIOLENCE INTENSITY SCALE ............................................................................................. 76 ANNEX IV: MAP OF BANGLADESH ELECTORAL VIOLENCE 2008 .................................................... 77 ANNEX V: MAP OF ZIMBABWE ELECTORAL VIOLENCE 2008 ........................................................... 78 ANNEX VI: MAP OF PROJECTED ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN COLOMBIA - 2010 ............................ 79 ANNEX VII: ECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................................................................................... 80 1 TABLE OF TABLES AND FIGURES Bangladesh Table 1 - Political Party Perpatrators ............................................................................................. 25 Table 2 - Location of Incidents ...................................................................................................... 26 Table 3 - Counterparts ................................................................................................................... 28 Table 4 - M & E Illustrative Indicators ............................................................................................ 33 Zimbabwe Table 5 - Counterparts ................................................................................................................... 43 Table 6 - M & E Illustrative Indicators ............................................................................................ 49 Colombia Table 7 - Spoiler Motives ............................................................................................................... 54 Table 8 - Spoiler Tactics and Targets............................................................................................ 55 Table 9 - Counterparts ................................................................................................................... 58 Table 10 - M & E Illustrative Indicators .......................................................................................... 64 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Under funding from the Elections and Political Process Indefinite Quantity Contract (EPP IQC), Creative Associates International, Inc. (Creative) conducted electoral security assessments in Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and Colombia. The objective of these electoral security assessments was to identify and profile potential electoral conflict and violence, propose program strategies and activities to prevent, manage or mediate this conflict, and establish a framework by which the results of this programming can be evaluated. Each country‘s electoral security assessment is presented as a standalone report. The three assessments are followed by a section providing comparative insights on the three cases. Each assessment is organized in the following fashion: The assessments begin with a discussion of Conditions, that is, the context and circumstances surrounding the next election cycle. The section on Conditions is followed by a discussion of the History of Electoral Violence in each country. With these points as background, the Assessment Framework unfolds in four steps: Step 1 – Electoral Security Assessment Framework Step 2 – Electoral Security Planning Step 3 – Electoral Security Programming Step 4 – Monitoring and Evaluation BANGLADESH Background – Conditions and History Officially, the 2008 parliamentary election was the ninth since the founding of Bangladesh in 1971. However, most sources consider just three parliamentary elections as meeting international standards. Those elections, in 1996, 2001 and 2008, were not under the undue influence of the military and resulted in transfers of power between the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and the Awami League (AL). However, even though there was general approval of the conduct of these three elections, each one was afflicted with some form of violence. Various factors undergird violence in Bangladesh‘s elections. First, the political culture and First-Past-The-Post ―winner take all‖ electoral system are high stakes and confrontational