DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended October 11, 2007 India's Political Prospects Over the Next Year 18 July 1975 DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended October 11, 2007 India's Political Prospects Over the Next Year* KEY POINTS - Prime Minister Gandhi's recent repressive actions, though technically lawful, have substantially changed India's political system. - She has dramatically tightened her control and is likely to remain in power for at least the next year. - Within the ruling Congress Party, opposition to Gandhi is unlikely to grow serious enough to jeopardize her position. - Anti-Congress opposition groups will probably remain unable to mount a major challenge for some time. - The security forces are likely to remain loyal to the Prime Minister's constitutional authority and to be able to contain protest activities. - The Indian Supreme Court's decision on Gandhi's al- ledged campaign violations is not likely to lead to her removal as Prime Minister. - Even if the decision were adverse, she probably would take steps that would enable her legally to remain in office. - In the unlikely event she did leave office, her likely successor would be Agriculture Minister Ram or Foreign Minister Chavan, either of whom would probably be less leftist-oriented than Gandhi and perhaps somewhat friendlier to the US and China. * This memorandum was prepared by the Central Intelli- gence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of State. DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended October 11, 2007 - The timing of the next national election will depend on Gandhi's reading of the mood of the country. - Under the state of emergency, the normal con- stitutional deadline for the next election -- March 1976 -- could be waived. - Whenever the elections are held, the Congress Party appears likely to win a majority. - In the foreign policy field, Gandhi may revive her campaign against alleged external threats, but she probably will not attempt foreign adventures or make any basic changes in policy over the next year. - India's longer term future is less clear. - Monsoon failures and the inability of the government to get the economy moving could lead to serious unrest and instability. - This could lead to even more sweeping con- trols and repressive measures. - Gandhi might succeed in cowing all opposi- tion by such action, but the chances of either the Congress Party replacing her or of the military stepping in to assume power would increase as would the possibility of general instability. DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended October 11, 2007 DISCUSSION Introduction 1. In a move unprecedented in India's 28 years of independence, Indira Gandhi's government, acting in accordance with the constitution, has assumed virtually dictatorial emergency powers and has carried out a ma- jor and well-planned crackdown against the political opposition. Several thousand persons have been ar- rested under the state of emergency, including Gandhi's foremost critic, Jayaprakash Narayan, and many other opposition politicians. Civil rights have been suspended and press censorship imposed. The government has also outlawed 26 small extremist right- and left-wing po- litical organizations. In an obvious gesture to em- phasize the legality of her actions, Gandhi has an- nounced that the Indian Parliament will convene on July 21. The parliament, in which Gandhi's Congress Party enjoys large majorities in both houses, will ap- prove the emergency declaration. Political Prospects 2. By establishing a precedent for suppression of the political opposition, Gandhi has substantially changed the character of India's political system. Be- fore the crackdown, India's political parties and press enjoyed a degree of freedom unusual in Asia. No gov- ernment of independent India had ever before assumed emergency powers to deal exclusively with internal po- litical matters or had undertaken wholesale arrests of non-Communist opposition politicians. Now that Gandhi has taken such strong steps, it will be very difficult -- perhaps impossible -- for her to return to the status quo ante and restore complete freedom of action and expression to her embittered opponents. 3. Gandhi's actions, nonetheless, have been legal under the Indian constitution. For at least the next year she can probably maintain control over the situa- tion without resorting to the kinds of blatantly illegal DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended October 11, 2007 actions that might turn the bulk of the Congress Party, her political base, against her. Her party's strong legislative majority would enable her legally to amend the constitution to strengthen the executive branch further; there are some reports that she may even do this in the parliamentary session that begins July 21. Moreover, we do not believe the Supreme Court's deci- sion on her recent conviction for campaign violations (see discussion below) will make it necessary for her to step outside the law to remain in power. In addi- tion,, under present circumstances potential challengers within the party, as well as their supporters, would probably face immediate expulsion from the party and possible arrest. 4. Although their activities thus far have been limited and ineffective,opposition groups may try periodically to mount protest demonstrations and strikes in the months ahead. Such activities will probably be concentrated primarily in states where the opposition parties are relatively strong, such as Tamil Nadu (formerly Madras), Bihar, and Gujarat. Student protest efforts, moreover, may increase with the reopening of schools this month. The death of one of the detained opposition leaders -- particularly the popular Narayan, who is in his seventies and in frail health, or former deputy prime minister Morarji Desai -- could also touch off new demonstrations and might politicize many who have not yet formed an opin- ion on Gandhi's recent actions. 5. Opposition efforts, however, will continue to be limited by the government's use of emergency powers, which has removed many potential protest lead- ers from circulation and intimidated others. Even if Gandhi decides to release some or all of the jailed leaders, they will continue to be inhibited by her ability to rearrest them at any time. Protests will also be obstructed by censorship of the press, which restricts public knowledge of developments that re- flect poorly on the government and also limits aware- ness of provocative events such as hunger strikes by opposition leaders. DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended October 11, 2007 6. A few state governments that are not controlled by the Congress Party, such as the regimes in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, may prove unwilling to do much to help the central government enforce the state of emergency. In Tamil Nadu, the state's Chief Minister and other offi- cials have criticized Gandhi's recent actions, and news- papers there have violated the censorship rules. New Delhi, however, could constitutionally impose direct central control on recalcitrant states and has enough force at its disposal to keep the situation in such states from becoming unmanageable. 7. India's economic problems, moreover, do not appear likely to worsen enough during the next twelve months to trigger widespread disorders. The important summer monsoon thus far has been good. Moreover, the government has announced a number of new economic meas- ures whose impact will be limited but which will help to maintain public support in the short run. 8. The government can probably contain the level of unrest we anticipate. The state of emergency, which gives the government expanded powers of arrest and de- tention, is likely to remain in force for some time. Even without the emergency powers, however, the police, paramilitary, and -- if needed -- military forces could keep the expected protest activity from getting out of hand. These forces are likely to retain their tradi- tional loyalty to civilian authority unless Gandhi flagrantly violates the constitution -- a step we be- lieve she will find unnecessary. The Court Case 9. Gandhi is unlikely to step down or be forced out of office before the Supreme Court reaches a deci- sion on her court case. The court reconvened on July 14 to consider the case; oral arguments are scheduled to begin on August 11. The final decision probably will be reached by late summer or early fall. Although all the members of the Supreme Court were appointed by Gandhi, the court will probably try to maintain its traditionally independent image. In addition to con- firmation or reversal of the lower court verdict, another DECLASSIFIED A/ISS/IPS, Department of State E.O. 12958, as amended October 11, 2007 possibility is a qualified decision such as voiding her 1971 reelection but not holding her personally culpable for the alleged campaign violations. Such a ruling would deprive her of her seat in parliament but permit her to remain in office up to six months before having to seek reelection. 10. If the lower court conviction is upheld, Gandhi could nevertheless remain legally in office. She could ask the Election Commissioner, a Gandhi appointee, to waive the requirement that she step down. Or she could ask the parliament, where her party has a strong majority, to amend the law so that her conviction would not require her removal from office. We believe she might well pursue one of these courses. The bulk of her party would prob- ably support her. Many party members -- and much of the Indian public -- probably still regard her as India's most qualified leader and are convinced that the nation needs a strong hand at the center.