East Mediterranean Chronicles -- A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Volume 4 2017-2019 Editors: Chr. G. Pelaghias Marta Murzanska George Chr. Pelaghias European Rim Policy and Investment Council East Mediterranean Chronicles A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Volume 4 2017-2019 East Mediterranean Chronicles A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Volume 4 2017-2019 Edited by Chr. G. Pelaghias Marta Murzanska George Chr. Pelaghias ERPIC European Rim Policy and Investment Council Larnaca 2020 East Mediterranean Chronicles A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Published in Cyprus by the European Rim Policy and Investment Council 27 Gregory Afxentiou Avenue, 6021 Larnaca, Cyprus Copyright © 2020 by European Rim Policy and Investment Council All rights reserved. ISBN: 9798518947658 Editor: Chr. G. Pelaghias. Assistant Editors: Marta Murzanska, George Chr. Pelaghias Editorial & Advisory Board David Altman - Senior Vice-President, Netanya Academic College; Vice-Chair, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue; Ahmet Djavit An - Political Commentator; Senior Fellow, ERPIC Fanoulla Argyrou - Journalist, Researcher and Author Carol E. Bailey - Energy Consultant; Former Country Manager, Shell; Co-Director of the Energy Program, ERPIC Jorgen Berg - Upstream Energy Advisor; Former Managing Director, Eastern Mediterranean, Schlumberger Joan Brenton Connelly - Professor of Classics, New York University Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak - Researcher, Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security; Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University Antonia Dimou - Middle East and Persian Gulf Unit, Institute for Security and Defense Analyses, Athens Avishai Ehrlich - Professor of Political Sociology, Tel Aviv University Ehud Eiran - Senior Lecturer of International Relations, University of Haifa Marios L. Evriviades - Associate Professor, Neapolis University Paphos Elie Friedman - Senior Lecturer, Department of Multi-Disciplinary Studies, Ashkelon Academic College Laury Haytayan - Middle East and North Africa Director, Natural Resource Governance Institute, Beirut Yair Hirschfeld - Vice-Chair, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue; Academic Director, Centre for Middle East Studies at Galilee International Management Institute; Lecturer, Department of Middle Eastern History, University of Haifa Abdulla Ibrahim - Senior Advisor, Diplomatic Dialogue, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Egypt Andreas Jacovides - Ambassador a.h., Cyprus Klearchos A. Kyriakides - Deputy Head and Assistant Professor, School of Law, University of Central Lancashire, UClan Cyprus; Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, ERPIC Glen Labhart - Energy Industry Risk Specialist Gary Lakes – Journalist; Co-Director of the Energy Program, ERPIC Andrew Lambert - Air Commodore, RAF (Retired); Former Director of Defense Studies, RAF; Director of the Regional Security Program and Honorary Chairman, ERPIC Eran Lerman - Vice-President, Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security; Former Deputy National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel Habib C. Malik - Associate Professor of History (Retired), Lebanese American University; Senior Fellow on Lebanon, Philos Project; Senior Fellow, ERPIC Costas Melakopides - Associate Professor of International Relations (Retired), University of Cyprus Amit Mor - Energy Industry Financial & Strategic Consultant; Senior Lecturer for Energy Economics & Geopolitics, Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center Roderick Pace - Jean Monnet Professor, Institute for European Studies, University of Malta Andrestinos N. Papadopoulos - Ambassador a.h., Cyprus; Author; Honorary President, ERPIC Gerasimos Rodotheatos - Teaching Scholar of Public International Law, Panteion University, Athens Ephraim Sneh - Author; Brigadier General, IDF (Retired); Former Minister, Health, Transportation; Former Deputy Minister, Defense; Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College; President, Board of Trustees, ERPIC Michalis Stavrinos – Ambassador a.h., Cyprus; Lecturer of International Law, European University Cyprus Lars Wedin - Author; Captain, Swedish Navy (Retired); Visiting Fellow, Swedish National Defense College; Research Fellow, Institut Français d'Analyse Stratégique, Paris Jens Wilhelmsen – Fund Manager; Investment Advisor on Energy Industry In memory of S. R. Schwenninger 1951 - 2020 In memory of R. P. Collins 1949 - 2017 Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms i List of Plates v Preface vii Introduction to Volume 4 1 Timeline 3 Contributions 37 1. Lebanon’s East Mediterranean Gas Gary Lakes - January 2017 39 2. Total’s Cyprus Offshore Drilling Program Gary Lakes - February 2017 43 3. Russia and Regional Security Stanislav Osadchiy - 28 February 2017 47 4. The Effects of Brexit on International Business Jovita Vassallo - 17 March 2017 59 5. Anti-Money Laundering Principles and the Legal Profession: Some Lessons of History from England Klearchos A. Kyriakides - 17 March 2017 65 6. Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt – Energy Developments in the East Mediterranean Gary Lakes - 17 March 2017 73 7. The Judicial System of Cyprus Myron Nicolatos - 17 March 2017 81 8. Cypriot Federalism: A Nonstarter in the Shadow of Erdoğan’s Turkey Habib C. Malik – 16 March 2017 87 9. Cyprus in a Challenging Geopolitical Environment Dimitris Konstantakopoulos - 7 April 2017 93 10. Recent Energy Developments in the Eastern Mediterranean Gary Lakes - 10 April 2017 107 11. Turkish Constitutional Referendum Marcus Templar - 12 April 2017 109 12. Turkey’s Constitutional Referendum David Altman - 25 April 2017 113 13. The Role of France in the Security of the Eastern Mediterranean Rene Troccaz - 24 May 2017 117 14. Cyprus’ Response to a Turkish Natural Gas Pipeline to Israel George Pelaghias - 14 June 2017 123 15. The Qatar Crisis Ephraim Sneh - 15 June 2017 129 16. Comments on the US-Russia Brokered Ceasefire in South-Western Syria Habib C. Malik - 10 July 2017 133 17. Comments on US-Russia Brokered Ceasefire in Syria Yair Hirschfeld - 14 July 2017 135 18. The Cyprus Negotiations After Crans-Montana Klearchos A. Kyriakides – 14 July 2017 137 19. Comments on the Crans-Montana Conference on Cyprus Fanoulla Argyrou - 14 July 2017 141 20. The “Cyprus File” Handover Fanoulla Argyrou - 14 July 2017 143 21. The Kurdish Referendum for Independence in Northern Iraq Andrew Lambert - 3 October 2017 145 22. Comments on the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation Deal Ephraim Sneh - 25 October 2017 149 23. Syria, Lebanon and Israel in a Changing Geopolitical Environment Habib C. Malik - 26 October 2017 151 24. 103rd Anniversary of the British Annexation of Cyprus Klearchos A. Kyriakides - 7 November 2017 153 25. Saad Hariri’s Resignation as Prime Minister of Lebanon Habib C. Malik - 14 November 2017 157 26. Israel’s Role in the Eastern Mediterranean Asher Susser - 24 November 2017 159 27. Greece: An Emerging Energy Player in the Eastern Mediterranean Antonia Dimou - 13 December 2017 163 28. Turkish Invasion of Syria Andrew Lambert - 21 January 2018 167 29. Assessing Turkey’s Actions against the Republic of Cyprus’ Offshore Hydrocarbon Activities George Chr. Pelaghias - 19 February 2018 171 30. Developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Greater Middle East Rene Troccaz - 27 March 2018 183 31. Political Islam in the Eastern Mediterranean and Beyond Uriya Shavit - 18 April 2018 189 32. US-Led Strike against the Syrian Regime Andrew Lambert - 20 April 2018 195 33. Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon Habib C. Malik - 14 May 2018 201 34. Political Islam in South-Eastern Europe and Beyond Darko Trifunovic - 8 June 2018 203 35. Turkey’s Election 2018 Alan Makovsky - 22 June 2018 207 36. The 2018 Turkish Presidential Elections Results Alan Makovsky - 4 July 2018 213 37. Hydrocarbons Developments in the Eastern Mediterranean Charles Ellinas - 10 July 2018 219 38. Aftermath of the 2018 Turkish Elections Marcus Templar - 16 July 2018 225 39. Israeli Perception of the Iranian Threat Ehud Eiran - 17 July 2018 229 40. A Strategic Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean Eran Lerman - 27 July 2018 233 41. Turkey’s Political and Economic Future Under Erdogan Marcus Templar - 30 July 2018 237 42. Israeli Counterintelligence Discipline: Theory and Practice Avner Barnea - 2 August 2018 241 43. A 2018 Summer Tour d’Horizon Andrew Lambert - 8 August 2018 247 44. Offshore Hydrocarbon Developments in Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean Harry Theocharis - 30 October 2018 251 45. Challenges to Liberal Democracy in the Eastern Mediterranean Marta Murzanska and George Pelaghias - November 2018 255 46. Cypriot Liberal Democracy and its Challenges Christodoulos G. Pelaghias- November 2018 271 47. Recent Hydrocarbon Developments in Cyprus Gary Lakes - 28 November 2018 283 48. The Possible Effects of Brexit Klearchos A. Kyriakides - 7 December 2018 285 49. Syria, Iran and the Future of the Middle East Uzi Rabi - 15 January 2019 289 50. Cyprus and the Future of East Mediterranean Security and Co-Operation Nikos Christodoulides - 23 January 2019 291 51. Turkey at the Eastern Mediterranean Crossroads Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak - 12 February 2019 297 52. 2019 Turkish Municipality Elections Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak - 12 February 2019 299 53. Recent Hydrocarbon Developments in Lebanon Laury Haytayan - 2 March 2019 301 54. Israeli Elections 2019 Elie Friedman - 5 March 2019 305 55. What to Expect from the 2019 Israeli Elections Ehud Eiran - 14 March 2019 309 56. Αντιμετωπίζοντας τον Τουρκικό επεκτατισμό Christos Minagias - 17 March 2019 313 57. Comments on the 2019 Turkish Municipal Elections Hay