AFTERMATH OF THE GENERAL ELECTION by Mohamed Mahuruf, Consultant The first hurdle for the President was the selection of the Prime Minister. It is no secret that the tussle for the coveted post was on, long before elections were announced. So much so the UPFA deliberately left out the naming of its Prime Ministerial candidate. The contenders included Mahinda Rajapakse, Anura Bandaranaike, Lakshman Kadirgamar, and D.M. Jayaratne. Anura’s defection from the party in 1993 would certainly make him an unpopular candidate for the premiership that has to be finally selected by his sister. The Bandaranaikes who gave way to the JVP (39 of the 105 seats) making inroads into the party are in no mood to go against the stalwarts to appoint a family member. Hence Anura was supporting Mahinda for the premiership at yesterday’s UPFA Group Meeting. (While the JVP rode on the back of the SLFP voter base, it must however be said that if not for the JVP the SLFP would not have come to power this time). Mahinda Rajapakse topped the Hambantota District in preference votes. JVP MP came second. Also the JVP were trying to block votes to Mahinda in the district to no avail. Mahinda proved he was premier material by campaigning island-wide instead of limiting himself to his district base. The JVP at yesterday’s meeting was clearly backing Lakshman Kadirgamar while most of the party seniors were supporting Rajapakse a stalwart who remained in the fold during the party’s ups and downs. It would be suicidal to have Kadirgamar as Premier for two reasons. Firstly it would be going against the party seniors. Secondly, the LTTE cannot stick the guts of Kadirgamar and if the President has hopes of carrying on the negotiations with the LTTE it would be better to have Rajapakse as Premier with Kadirgamar giving valuable advice on the sidelines. (The Tigers have not forgotten Kadirgamar’s damage to the LTTE’s reputation during his tenure as foreign Minister.) The best compromise however would have been by appointing D.M. Jayaratne who was overlooked on the previous occasions as premier. But Jayaratne was way down in the list of preferences. Finally the President sworn in Mahinda Rajapakse, today as the prime minister against the wishes of the JVP, the country only hopes that further instability is not on the cards with the JVP accounting for nearly a third of the ruling party. The TNA has been closely watching the current political situation. It would solidly stand behind the Interim Self governing Authority (ISGA) proposal submitted by the LTTE. It claims that the Tamils also have expressed their firm stand that they are fully backing the ISGA proposal through their verdict in the Friday poll. It further says that the trials and tribulations of the hundreds of thousands of displaced Tamil people now languishing in refugee camps should be brought to an end very soon with the formation of the ISGA where the Tamils should be allowed to reconstruct and rehabilitate their war devastated province. On the other hand, The LTTE interprets the results of the elections as the Tamil people have delivered a clear message on the “concept of the Tamil Homeland, Tamil Nationalism and reiterated that the right for Tamil self-rule should be accepted as the basic aspirations of the Tamil people. In the meantime the LTTE warns as the Tamil national problem should be politically resolved on that basis, failing which the Tamil people will fight to establish the Tamil sovereignty in their homeland on the principle of self-determination. It said that by giving TNA a historic victory, the Tamil people have performed their historical duty and have sent a clear message to the “Sinhala Nation and the International community at large.” “This is the first time after the 1977 elections that the Tamil people have expressed their aspirations more resolutely and unambiguously. We appeal to the Tamil people to continue to support the TNA which is the political entity that is assigned the task of being supportive of the LTTE leadership, relentlessly fighting for the security and freedom of the Tamil people.” The country’s bid to forge a lasting peace with the LTTE is likely to be seriously threatened because the new government lacks a majority to push the process and economy ahead. Ranil Wickremesinghe the outgoing prime minister says that “Everything is in trouble, if you don’t have a government with a majority,” “I am saying that if you haven’t got a government with a majority in the parliament, then everything else is suspended. Whether if be the peace process, or the economy or the administration – everything is in suspense,” In his view the peace process has been accepted by the country, he refused to concede any ground to the Freedom Alliance, saying as a minority government the UPFA would not get a grace period. He and other opposition parties would decide “issue by issue” whether they would support or defeat the government. Even in Parliament the Leader of the House needed a majority to approve the order paper of the House to start business. To obtain the 4.5 billion US Dollars pledge offered at the Tokyo conference there should be a stable government. There was a similar situation that arose in March 1960 when the then minority government was defeated resulting in fresh elections three months later. Although the outgoing Primer not predicting another election soon, he did not rule out such a situation as the present political crisis created by the President had resulted in no party getting a clear majority. It is very clear that the UNP has been discussing the matter with the CWC, SLMC and JHU as to how to overcome this impasse. The UNF government was elected with majority of 114 seats in December 2001 and at the last budget it showed that it had a majority of 130 seats. The government that formed on December 5, 2001 brought the war to an end and resurrected the economy but all those efforts came to an abrupt end with the President calling election. Despite a strong determination by the SLMC hierarchy not to support the UPFA, the party is expected to decide today whether it will extend its support to the Alliance or continue to sit in the opposition with the UNP. A High Command meeting will be held today night where the party’s future strategy will also be discussed. Meanwhile, even though the SLMC had signed an electoral agreement with the UNP, it is not bound to stick with the UNP. According to the agreement, It has a mandate to act on its own, so it can decide whether to continue to support the UNP or otherwise. Although SLMC had received several invitations from the UPFA to join the Alliance, it was highly unlikely to support the Alliance, mainly due to the diverse opinions expressed by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the JVP. The JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe has reportedly said that the JVP does not accept the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamils. SLMC fears that this statement could lead to unnecessary problems with the LTTE and the obvious deterioration of the two-year-long Ceasefire Agreement. According to SLMC the party’s top priority was the peace process and there was a great possibility the SLMC would sit with the opposition and support a peace process and not support the UPFA. The JVP had weakened the SLFP in general elections. A significant feature of this election is the emergence of JVP leaders at the cost of SLFP strongmen and in the future it is the JVP that will take the place of SLFP. At the general elections the people of this country have put into power a government without a majority and the country is likely to be pushed into a crisis situation for want of a strong government at this decisive stage. The criticism against the President is that the dissolution of Parliament on February 7, was an undemocratic and totally unnecessary act that was preceded by the taking over of the portfolios relating to Defence. Interior and Media. It had a direct bearing on the conduct of the elections. The election results would show that no single party is to secure a clear majority and it was an exercise in futility. M Mahuruf April 6, 2004 .